MBA《管理学原理》讲义CHAPTER4-Foundations of Decision Making.ppt

1、CHAPTER 4,Foundations of Decision Making,Learning Objectives,Describe the decision-making process Analyze the rational decision-making model Explain the limits of rationality Learn how certainty, risk, and uncertainty relate to decision making Discuss the bounded-rational decision maker,Learning Obj

2、ectives,Identify the two types of decision problems and the two decisions that solve them Learn how heuristics affect decision making Identify four decision-making styles Weigh the pros and cons of group decisions Learn three ways to improve group decision making,The Decision-Making Process,Identifi

3、cation of a Problem,Identification of Decision Criteria,Allocation of Weights to Criteria,Price Interior Comfort Durability Repair Record Performance,Price Interior Comfort Durability Repair Record Performance,10 8 6 4 2,I need to buy a new car.,Development of Alternatives,Analysis of Alternatives,F

4、ord,Jeep,Mazda,Dodge,Audi,Isuzu,Chevy,Selection of an Alternative,Implementation of the Alternative,Price Comfort Durability Repair Record Performance,The Dodge is the best.,Toyota,Problem Clarity,Single Goal,Known Options,Clear Preferences,Constant Preferences,No Constraints,Maximum Payoff,Assumpti

5、ons of Rational Decision Making,A Model of Bounded Rationality,Ascertain the Need for a Decision,Simplify the Problem,Set “Satisfying” Criteria,Identify a Limited Set of Alternatives,Compare Alternatives Against Criteria,Expand Search for Alternatives,Select the First “Good Enough” Choice,A “Satisfi

6、cing” Alternative Exists,Yes,No,Escalation of Commitment,Representative Heuristic,Availability Heuristic,Common Errorsin Decision Making,How Do Problems Differ?,Well- Structured,Programmed Decisions,Poorly Structured,Non-programmed Decisions,Making Programmed Decisions,Sequential Procedures,Specific

7、 Rules,Guiding Policies,Integrating Decision Making,Well-Structured,Level in Organization,Programmed Decisions,Top,Poorly Structured,Type of Problem,Lower,Non-programmed Decisions,Analytic,Conceptual,Behavioral,Directive,Rational,Intuitive,Way of Thinking,High,Low,Tolerance for Ambiguity,Decision-Making Styles,Group Decision Making,More information More alternatives Increased acceptance Legitimacy,Time-consuming Minority domination Pressures to conform Unclear r