欧洲风能技术论文113_Impacts_of_wind_power_on_energy_balance_of_a_hydro_dominated_power_system.ppt

Impacts of wind power on energy balance of a hydro dominated power system EWEC 2006, Athens MSc Juha Kiviluoma, VTT PhD Hannele Holttinen, VTT * 2 Background tBased on model developed in EU-project WILMAR (Wind power integration in liberalised electricity markets) Risoe, IER at University of Stutgart, Sintef, VTT, KTH, IMM at Technical University of Denmark, Elkraft, Elsam, Nord Pool Consulting tThe work continues in IEA Annex on Wind & hydro and the model development in EU-project SupWind tThese results part of PhD thesis work of Juha Kiviluoma Large increases of wind and other renewables in the energy system 3 Research questions tHow hydro power regulates large amounts of wind power in hydro dominated system? tHow the energy balance of the hydro dominated system changes with large amounts of wind power? tWhich power plants are affected? tHow the prices change? 4 Model description tMarket model of Nordic countries and Germany tHourly time-scale tSpot market horizon tLong term model for water values tStochastic presentation of wind (not used in this) tQuite detailed unit presentation tAlso heat areas for CHP tPrimary and secondary reserves (dependant on wind) tSee Meibom at DS1 on Thursday morning 5 Model weak points tHydro power Presentation of hydro is not detailed enough One reservoir water value model tNo load flows, static transmission limits tSystem prices, no market power etc. Lower bound prices tLow regulation prices tSlow to solve whole year 6 Cases ba se 10 % 20 % 30 % Wind capac ity GW NO+SE +FI Germa ny Denmar k 2.5 28. 6 4.1 17. 8 35. 8 4.6 35. 7 35. 8 4.6 52. 5 35. 8 4.6 Energy from wind NO+SE+FI+DK TWh 164987119 The modelled year has 2001 profile for hydro, wind, load and heat demand Not very windy Average hydro year 7 Assumptions t17 /CO2 ton tFuel price scenario tPlanned transmission lines up to 2010 Fennoska II 800 MW Storaebelt 600 MW NorNed 700 MW (connected to Germany) Some Nordel internal connections tImport time series from Russia and Poland tAnnounced power plants and decomissionings until 2010 tWind is added as extra production, no capacity taken away Model prices Current prices (Finland) IEA (2010) IEA (2030) Light oil53113$/barrel Fuel oil4666$/barrel Crude oil602229$/barrel Coal74694044$/t Nat_gas (Europe)8.45.93.34.3$/Mbtu Model 2002/GJ Woodwaste4 Wood4.3 Straw4.4 Waste0 Peat1.5 Light oil7.2 Fuel oil6.2 Coal2.3 Natural gas6.2 Nuclear0.35 Production TWh in 2010 base case FI_R NO_N NO_M NO_S SE_N SE_M SE_S DK_W DK_E DE_NWDE_NE DE_CS Whole year for the four cases Base 10% 20% 30% TWh base case: production, consumption and transmission MWh/h 10% case: production, consumption and transmission MWh/h MWh 20% case: production, consumption and transmission MWh/h MWh 30% case: production, consumption and transmission MWh/h MWh Hydro reservoir fillings Prices /MWh base10 % 20 %30 % Maximum power from condensing plants in Nordic countries 17 Condbasew10w20w30 Nuclear6899668261315663 Woodwaste245678100 Peat72965070215879 Coal27058851363 Hydro4668440141323843 CHPbasew10w20w30 Waste7236720571237047 Woodwaste4396453146504873 Wood5489394131612151 Straw3087257525932915 Peat4539429539823009 Coal4898359127902322 Nat gas149712851063592 Fuel oil586526469395 Full load hours of condensing and chp plants 18 Regulation cases in 30% wind case Hydro: NO 28 GW SE 16 GW FI 3 GW Sum47 GW Highest one-hour drop in wind 30 GW 13 GW 19 Regulation cases in 30% wind case High consumption low wind Nuclear and hydro regulate Hydro: NO 28 GW SE 16 GW FI 3 GW Sum47 GW 20 Available capacity in the model Capacity balance during base case highest consumption Wind shedding (Case I.a) MWh High consumption low wind (Case II.a) Big drop in wind (Case II.b) MWh Highest consumption MWh 25 Assumptions for conclusions tWind will get very competitive Good sites available Price of development down Fossils face increasing costs tOther obstacles surmountable Local grid issues and grid reinforcements Load flow controls Landscape, noise and avian concerns 26 Conclusions t20-30% wind penetration changes the utilisation of other power production decisively tWind will affect power prices strongly if penetration gets high tAt least in the modelled year, hydro power can regulate wind to such extent that usage other condensing than nuclear is minimal (could be covered by demand side measures) tLimitations for wind are most likely in available sites and transmission rather than in regulation Nordic price duration curve 27 Discussion tPower price will drop if countermeasures are not taken tAdditional connections to the cont