已阅读5页,还剩156页未读, 继续免费阅读
版权说明:本文档由用户提供并上传,收益归属内容提供方,若内容存在侵权,请进行举报或认领
文档简介
巴克莱资本房地产行业深度研究报告EQUITYRESEARCH23NOVEMBER2010INITIATINGCOVERAGEHONGKONGPROPERTYDEVELOPERSHONGKONGPROPERTYDEVELOPERS1POSITIVEINITIATIONOFCOVERAGEBUBBLEWRAPFROMN/APOSITIVE6VIEWONHONGKONGPROPERTYDEVELOPERSALTHOUGHPROPERTYPRICESAREFORAFULLLISTOFOURRATINGS,PRICETARGETSANDEARNINGSINTHISREPORT,PLEASESEETABLEONALREADYOVERVALUEDAGAINSTLONGTERMFUNDAMENTALS,WEEXPECTTHEMTOOVERSHOOTPAGE2LOWSUPPLY,AGOVERNMENTUNWILLINGTODEFLATEHOUSEPRICES,NEGATIVEREALMORTGAGERATESANDHIGHLEVELSOFEQUITYAREALLSUPPORTIVEOFHIGHERPROPERTYPRICES,INOURHONGKONGPROPERTYINVESTORSVIEWWHILEALLEIGHTDEVELOPERSSHOULDBENEFIT,OUR1OVERWEIGHTPICKSSHKP,SINOANDREWLAWRENCELANDANDKERRYPROPERTIESREFLECTOURPREFERENCEFORSHORTERDURATIONLANDBANKS85229033319ANDTHEPRESELLINGOFDEVELOPMENTSIE,BUSINESSMODELSTHATCAPTURETHELATECYCLEANDREWLAWRENCEBARCAP4RETURNS,WHILEMANAGINGTHERISKSINHERENTINHONGKONGSVOLATILEPROPERTYPRICESBARCLAYSBANK,HONGKONGPROPEJONATHANHSURTYPRICEMOMENTUMREMAINSDESPITETHEGOVERNMENTSRECENTMEASURES,85229037STRONGHOMEBUYERCONFIDENCEWILLLIKELYALLOWPROPERTYPRICEMOMENTUMTORUNFORBARCLAYSBANK,HONGKONGANOTHER182VIEW8522903LOOKTOCAPTURELATECYCLERETURNSWHILERISINGPROPERTYPRICESAREPOSITIVEFORALLEIGHTBARCLAYSBANK,HONGKONGDEVELOPERS,OURPREFERENCEISFORSHKP,SINOLANDANDKERRY,COMPANIESFOCUSEDONPRESALES,WITHSHORTERDURATIONLANDBANKSANDAFOCUSONTHECASHRICHUPPERRUNGSOFTHEHOUSINGLADDERTOCAPTURETHERETURNSANDMANAGETHEINHERENTRISKSOFTHISSTAGEOFTHECYCLEOUR3UNDERWEIGHTRATINGONHANGLUNGPROPERTIESHLPREFLECTSTHEHIGHEXPECTATIONSPRICEDINTOTHESTOCKANDTHATINVESTORSHAVELARGELYIGNOREDTHEPOTENTIALLANDAPPRECIATIONTAXLATLIABILITIESOFITSCOMMERCIALPROPERTIESINCHINAUSANDCHINAINTERESTRATERISKSINTHENEARTERM,HIGHERINTERESTRATESINCHINA,DISCOURAGINGINVESTMENTFLOWSANDNEGATIVELYIMPACTINGCONFIDENCE,REMAINAKEYRISKYET,THELARGESTRISK,INOURVIEW,REMAINSUSINTERESTRATES,ESPECIALLYGIVENTHEINCREASEDMORTGAGEBORROWINGBYHOMEBUYERSWEBELIEVETHISINTERESTRATELINKANDINVESTORSENTIMENTWILLCONTINUETOTIEDEVELOPERSSTOCKPRICESTOUSDOLLARMOVEMENTSFIGURE1HONGKONGPROPERTYDEVELOPERSVALUATIONTABLEPRICEPOTENTIALHKRATINGPRICETARGETUP/DOWNSIDESINOLAND83HK1OW15VIEW1POS1POSITIVE2NEU2NEUTRAL3NEG3NEGATIVE23NOVEMBER20102BARCLAYSCAPITAL|HONGKONGPROPERTYDEVELOPERSINVESTMENTSUMMARYWEINITIATECOVERAGEOFTHEHONGKONGPROPERTYDEVELOPERSWITHA1POSITIVESECTORVIEWSTRONGCONSUMERCONFIDENCE,NEGATIVEMORTGAGERATESANDTHEAVAILABILITYOFCREDITWILLLIKELYENCOURAGEDEMANDTOCHASEACONSTRAINEDSTOCKOFAVAILABLEPROPERTIESOVERTHENEXT182VIEWHOWEVER,WEBELIEVETHELONGERINTERESTRATESREMAINLOWANDHOUSEHOLDCONFIDENCEREMAINSSTRONG,THEGREATERTHEPROSPECTSOFAMOREMATERIALOVERSHOOTINPRICESNEGATIVEMORTGAGERATES,ABELIEFINTHERENEWEDINVESTMENTPOTENTIALOFHOUSINGANDCONFIDENCETHATPRICESCANRISEANDPANICTHATSUPPLYWILLNOTBEAVAILABLEINAFEWMONTHSTIMEWILLLIKELYALLOWTHECURRENTMOMENTUMINENDPRICESTORUNFORANOTHER18260,0006,00050,0005,00060OF2010SHOMEBUYERSWEREUPGRADERS,30WEREINVESTORSANDTHEREMAINDERWEREFIRSTTIMEBUYERSDESPITEALLTHEPOLITICALTALKABOUTFIRSTTIMEBUYERS,THEWIDENINGOFPRICESBETWEENRUNGSOFTHEHOUSINGLADDER,THEGREATERPROPORTIONOFHOUSEHOLDSAGED35608506600101,6002600,000500,000VIEWFIGURE9HOUSEPRICESANDHOUSEHOLDINCOMESINDEX60050060260300MONEYSUPPLY156058077076056010NEGATIVEREALMORTGAGERATESVIEWGIVENTHEINCREASINGADMINISTRATIVEMEASURESINCHINAONSECONDHOMEPURCHASES,HONGKONGCONTINUESTOREMAINARELATIVELYEASYDESTINATIONFORMAINLANDCAPITAL23NOVEMBER201011BARCLAYSCAPITAL|HONGKONGPROPERTYDEVELOPERSHOUSINGDEMANDMODEL4FORECASTINGSHORTTERMRESIDENTIALPRICEPERFORMANCEISMOREDEPENDENTUPONCHANGESINDEMAND4TODETERMINEDEMANDANDDEMANDDRIVERS,WEUSEACONCEPTUALMODELBASEDUPONCHANGESINECONOMICANDSOCIALSENTIMENT4THEBASISOFOURMODELISTHATHONGKONGSRESIDENTIALDEMANDISLARGELYINVESTMENTDRIVENHIGHERPRICESINDUCEHIGHERDEMAND,ASTHEPOSITIVECORRELATIONBETWEENTURNOVERANDPRICESDEMONSTRATESFORECASTINGDEMANDFORECASTINGSHORTTERMRESIDENTIALPRICEPERFORMANCEISMOREDEPENDENTUPONCHANGESINDEMAND,INOURVIEWTHISISNOTTOSAYTHATSUPPLYISNOTIMPORTANT,BUTSIMPLYTORECOGNISETHEGREATERINFLUENCESUBTLESHIFTSINDEMANDCANEXERTONSHORTTERMPRICESETTINGOVERTHEINELASTICSUPPLYSIDEOFTHEMARKETDEMANDIMPROVESWHENANDETERMININGHOUSINGDEMANDISDIFFICULT,GIVENTHATDEMANDEMBODIESAWIDEVARIETYOFEXTERNALFACTORLEADSTOACHANGEECONOMICANDSOCIALFACTORSINORDERTOATTEMPTTOESTIMATETHENATUREANDDRIVERSOFINAFFORDABILITYANDCONFIDENCEHOUSINGDEMAND,WEUSEACONCEPTUALMODELBASEDUPONCHANGESINECONOMICANDSOCIALSENTIMENTOURMODELASSUMESACHANGEINTHEMARKETOCCURSWHENANIMPROVEMENTINEXTERNALECONOMICFACTORSLEADTOACHANGEINAFFORDABILITY/LIQUIDITYANDBUYERCONFIDENCETHEBASISOFTHEMODELISRELATIVELYSTRAIGHTFORWARDINSTABLEPERIODS,ENDBUYERSDOMINATEANDDEMANDISLARGELYDRIVENBYCHANGESINHOUSEHOLDCOMPOSITIONBIRTHS,DEATHS,MARRIAGES,DIVORCES,ETCTURNOVERISRELATIVELYLOW,ANDAFFORDABILITY,COMBINEDWITHHOUSEHOLDCONFIDENCEWITHREGARDTOEMPLOYMENTPROSPECTSANDTHEABILITYTOSERVICETHEMORTGAGE,ARETHEMAINDRIVERSTODEMAND,INOURVIEWHOWEVER,ASTHEECONOMYANDHOUSEHOLDCONFIDENCEIMPROVES,RISINGHOUSEPRICESARESEENASASIGNALTHATITISAGOODTIMETOTRADETHISENCOURAGESMOREFIRSTTIMEBUYERSINTOTHEPRIVATEHOUSINGMARKETANDEXISTINGPRIVATEHOUSEHOLDSTOUSETHEEQUITYINTHEIRHOMESTOTRADEUPASPRICESCONTINUETORISE,THEINVESTMENTMOTIVERETURNSANDANINCREASINGNUMBEROFINVESTORSENTERTHEMARKETTHISFORCESTURNOVERUPANDDRIVESPRICESHIGHERCONFIDENCEINRISINGPROPERTYPRICESANDTHEAVAILABILITYANDAFFORDABILITYOFCREDITBECOMETHEMAINDRIVERSOFDEMANDULTIMATELY,IFHOUSEPRICEINFLATIONREMAINSPERSISTENTLYHIGH,ITENCOURAGESASPECULATIVECULTURE,PROMPTINGPEOPLETOPAYMOREFORPROPERTYANDENCOURAGINGTHEMTOHOLDMORETHANTHEYNORMALLYWOULDTHEAVAILABILITYOFCREDITDOMINATESANDANINCREASINGBELIEFINTHEGREATERFOOLTHEORYSOMEONEWILLALWAYSPAYMOREDRIVESDEMANDTHIS,INOURVIEW,CAUSESHIGHERTURNOVERLEVELS,DRIVESAFFORDABILITYRATIOSTOUNSUSTAINABLELEVELSANDDISGUISESTHEREALDEMANDFORPROPERTYREFLECTINGTHEINVESTMENTASTHEFOLLOWINGGRAPHSSHOW,THISMODELVIACHANGESINTURNOVER,AFFORDABILITY,PRICETODRIVENDEMANDFORHONGKONGINCOMERATIOSANDPRICEVOLATILITYREFLECTSWELLTHESHIFTINGPATTERNOFMARGINALDEMANDINPROPERTYHONGKONGSHOUSINGMARKET,RESTINGONTHESIMPLETHESISTHATHONGKONGSRESIDENTIALDEMANDISLARGELYINVESTMENTDRIVENCHEAPERHOUSEPRICESANDIMPROVEDAFFORDABILITYDONOTINDUCEHIGHERDEMAND23NOVEMBER201012BARCLAYSCAPITAL|HONGKONGPROPERTYDEVELOPERSFIGURE160INVESTMENT5060SPECULATION1060ENDUSERSENDUSERS609VIEW,THISREFLECTSEXPECTATIONSOFACONTINUEDPROPERTYECONOMICRECOVERYANDLOWUSINTERESTRATES,THEEXPECTATIONOFFURTHERPRICEINCREASESDUETOLIMITEDSUPPLY,CHEAPMORTGAGERATESANDMONEYFLOWFROMTHEMAINLAND,ANDAGOVERNMENTULTIMATELYUNWILLINGTOSIGNIFICANTLYDEFLATETHEPROPERTYMARKETHAVINGBEENDRIVENBYAFFORDABILITYANDTHEAVAILABILITYOFEQUITY,WEEXPECTTHEMAINDEMANDDRIVERSOFTHENEXTSTAGEOFTHEMARKETTOBETHEAVAILABILITYOFCREDIT,CONFIDENCETHATPRICESCANRISEANDPANICTHATSUPPLYWILLNOTBEAVAILABLEINAFEWMONTHSTIMEWHILERECENTGOVERNMENTMEASURESARELIKELYTOREDUCESPECULATIVEACTIVITY,WEVIEWTHEADDITIONAL5COSTOFHOLDINGPROPERTYFORMORETHAN12MONTHSASINEFFICIENTTOOFFSETTHERENEWEDINVESTMENTDEMANDFORPROPERTYFIRSTTIMEBUYERSANDTHEMASSMARKETDECLININGUNEMPLOYMENTANDINTHEMASSMARKET,BUYERCONFIDENCEWILLLIKELYIMPROVEONDECLININGUNEMPLOYMENTANDWAGEGROWTHWILLLIKELYDRIVEWAGEGROWTHTHECURRENTMONTHLYCOSTOFAREPAYMENTMORTGAGEONASTARTERUNITINTHEFIRSTTIMEBUYERCONFIDENCENEWTERRITORIESACCOUNTSFORONLY35OFTHEMEDIANHOUSEHOLDINCOMEANDISCOMPARABLETOTHECOSTOFRENTINGFORMONTHLYMORTGAGECOSTSTOREACH50OFHOUSEHOLDINCOMETHELIMITFORBANKLENDINGWOULDREQUIREMORTGAGERATESTOINCREASE60601600,136603678,208,675JUN982,607,660782,2981,825,362603,656,60,0581801,900,5373,656,60JUN093,006073,656,VIEW,CLEARLYIMPLYTHATTHERECENTREDUCTIONSINLTVRATIOSWILLLIKELYONLYHAVEAMARGINALEFFECTONUPGRADERDEMANDFIGURE27LTVREQUIREMENTSOFUPGRADERS160160VIEWLOWDEPOSITRATESAREPOSITIVELYENCOURAGINGTHECASHRICHINTOTHEPROPERTYMARKET,ASEVIDENCEDBYMORTGAGEGROWTHOUTSTRIPPINGDEPOSITGROWTHANDTHEHIGHLEVELOFTRANSACTIONVOLUMES,WHILEEXPECTEDRMBAPPRECIATIONHASENCOURAGEDSOMEINVESTORSTOBUYAHEADOFMAINLANDMONEYFLOWSHOUSINGINFLATIONISPERSUADINGPEOPLETOPAYMOREFORPROPERTYANDENCOURAGINGTHEMTOHOLDMORETHANTHEYNORMALLYWOULDFIGURE29DEPOSITANDMORTGAGELOANGROWTH50060UNITS,MARKEDLYLOWERTHANTHE6027,60722,060UNITS,2011S20MONTHPOTENTIALAVAILABILITYEQUATESTOONLY18XDEMAND,DEMONSTRATINGTHERELATIVELYLOWSUPPLYOVERTHENEXT12260112,160916,VIEWHOWEVER,WESUSPECTTHEOVERHANGOFTHETUNGADMINISTRATIONS85,000INOURVIEWUNITPOLICYLIKELYCONTINUESTOWEIGHHEAVILYONTHEGOVERNMENTSDECISIONMAKINGPROCESS,ANDTHEREFORE,WEBELIEVETHECURRENTADMINISTRATIONISUNWILLINGTOTAKETHENECESSARYMEASURESTODEFLATETHEHOUSINGMARKETFORDONALDTSANG,AMAJORCORRECTIONINRESIDENTIALPROPERTYPRICESATATIMEWHENHISGOVERNMENTISALREADYDEEPLYUNPOPULARWOULDLIKELYPROVEHIGHLYDAMAGINGTHISVIEWISREFLECTEDINTHENATUREOFADMINISTRATIVEMEASURESTAKENOVERTHEPAST12MONTHS1GIVENTHATBANKSWEREALREADYLENDINGATAROUND60LTVFORPROPERTIESOVERHK8MN,SIMPLYMOVEDTHEHKMASLENDINGGUIDANCEINLINEWITHMARKETPRACTICE2THETEMPORARYSUSPENSIONOFPROPERTYASAQUALIFYINGINVESTMENTUNDERTHECAPITALINVESTMENTENTRANTSCHEMECIESONLYAFFECTEDSOME23OFTOTALTURNOVERFORPROPERTIESWITHAPRICEOVERHK5MREFLECTINGTHEHK65MTHRESHOLDOFCIES,ANDIGNOREDTHEMAJORITYOFCAPITALINFLOWSTHATENTERTHEMARKETOUTSIDETHISSCHEME3THEINTRODUCTIONOFARENTTOBUYSCHEMEOFONLY5,000UNITSSUPPLYTOBEPROVIDEDFROM201VIEWOFHOUSINGNEEDSAND,INEFFECT,IMPLIESTHEGOVERNMENTWILLMOVETOSOMEFORMOFREGULARAUCTIONPROGRAMMEFORLANDSALESIN2011SHOULDDEVELOPERSNOTTRIGGERSUFFICIENTSITESOFFTHEAPPLICATIONLISTTHEGOVERNMENTSPROPOSEDTARGETOFANANNUALSUPPLYOF20,000PRIVATEUNITSAPPEARSCONSISTENTWITHOUROWNFORECASTSTHEGOVERNMENTHADALREADYSIGNALLEDITSINTENTTOINCREASELANDSUPPLYATTHESTARTOF2010,23NOVEMBER201026BARCLAYSCAPITAL|HONGKONGPROPERTYDEVELOPERSTHROUGHENCOURAGINGFASTERDELIVERYOFLANDBYTHEMTRCANDURA,BECOMINGMOREACCOMMODATIVEINLANDCONVERSION,EASINGRESTRICTIONSONCOMPULSORYPURCHASEANDMOVINGTOREGULARLANDAUCTIONSCHANGESTOTHEBUILDINGCODETOREDUCEDEVELOPERSABILITYTO“INFLATE”THEGROSSFLOORAREAGFAHAVE,HOWEVER,HELDBACKSUPPLY,ITISNOWUNLIKELYTHEMTRCWILLTENDERBEFORETHESTARTOF2011WESEENOSIGNIFICANTRISEINTHEREVISEDLANDAPPLICATIONLIST,EXCLUDINGTHISYEARSLANDAUCTIONSANDADDINGBACKSITESNEARTERMSUPPLYALREADYIDENTIFIEDFORINCLUSION,NOWCONTAINSAROUND9,000UNITSTHEMTRCHASTHEPOTENTIALTOTENDEROUTSOME18,176UNITSOVERTHENEXTTWOYEARS,ESPECIALLYIFTHEGOVERNMENTSTIPULATESSIZEREQUIREMENTSFORUNITSTHEURAHASINTHEREGIONOF2,138UNITSOFLANDSUPPLYITCANTENDERTOGETHER,THISIMPLIESALANDSUPPLYPOTENTIALOF29,31602,778VIEWTHEGOVERNMENT,CONSISTENTWITHITSCURRENTLANDSUPPLYDESIRENOTTOCAUSEACORRECTIONINPRIVATEPRICES,ISCLEARLYTAKINGACAUTIOUSAPPROACHTOEXPANDINGTHESUPPLYSIDEOFTHEMARKETAND,THEREFORE,ITISLIKELYTOTAKESOMETIMETOREACHITS20,000UNITSPATARGETINADDITION,GIVENTHELARGESIZEOFSITESBEINGOFFEREDFORSALEONTHEAPPLICATIONLISTANDVIATHEMTRC/URA,CONTROLOVERSUPPLYSTILLREMAINSINTHEHANDSOFLARGEDEVELOPERS,UNLESSTHEGOVERNMENTISPREPAREDTOMATERIALLYDROPITSLANDPRICESORCHANGETHELANDPREMIUMPAYMENTSYSTEMFROMBEINGUPFRONTTOASTAGEDPAYMENTSYSTEMALTHOUGHKAITAKOFFERSTHETHATSAIDHOWEVER,WEAREOFTHEVIEWTHATIFPRICEINCREASESCONTINUEANDHOUSEPRICESAREPOTENTIALFORALARGESCALEMULTIUP1015BYMID2011,THENTHEGOVERNMENTWILLBECOMPELLEDTOMAKEAMOREPUBLICYEARSUPPLYDEMONSTRATIONOFITSCOMMITMENTTOINCREASEHOUSINGSUPPLYONEPOTENTIALCOULDBETHERELEASEOFKAITAK,THEOLDAIRPORTSITE,FORAMASSRESIDENTIALDEVELOPMENTOFAROUND30,000UNITSTOBEPROVIDEDVIASOMEFORMOFPUBLIC/PRIVATEJOINTVENTURE,THEFINANCIALSECRETARYHASALREADYHIGHLIGHTEDTHEPOTENTIALOFKAITAKTOPROVIDELONGTERMSUPPLYOTHERMEASURESAFURTHERRISKWESEETOTHEPROPERTYMARKETISTHATTHEGOVERNMENTBOWSTOPOLITICALPRESSUREANDRESTARTSTHEHOSDEVELOPMENT,WITHTHEPROSPECTOFAMATERIALINCREASEINENDSUPPLYALTHOUGH,THISWOULDSTILLTAKEFIVEYEARSTOMATERIALISEINTHEFORMOFCOMPLETEDUNITS,ITWOULDLIKELYBEDISRUPTIVETOTHEPRIVATEMARKETANDCONFUSETHEOUTLOOKFORFUTURESUPPLYWETHINKSUCHAMOVEISUNLIKELY,ANDTHEGOVERNMENTWILLCONTINUETOSTICKWITHITSLIMITEDBUYTORENTSCHEMEONTHEDEMANDSIDE,THEGOVERNMENTCOULDFURTHERREDUCELTVRATIOSFORMORTGAGESORFURTHERINCREASEITSHOLDINGTAX,BUTINCREASINGLYTHESEMEASURESWOULDSTARTTOIMPACTGENUINEHOMEBUYERSANDBECOMEINCREASINGLYPOLITICALLYSENSITIVE,GIVENTHEGOVERNMENTSSTANCETOENSUREPROPERTYISAFFORDABLEFORFIRSTTIMEBUYERSTHEALTERNATIVEISTOTRYTOLIMITTHEHOARDINGOFPROPERTYAND,THEREFORE,MORTGAGEBORROWINGTOASINGLEMORTGAGEPERPERSONHOWEVER,GIVENTHENEGATIVENATUREOFHONGKONGSCREDITDATABASE,THEINFORMATIONAVAILABLETOACHIEVETHISISLIMITEDASARESULT,WHILEWEWOULDEXPECTSMALLADMINISTRATIVEMEASURESAIMEDATCURBINGDEMANDATTHEMARGINOVERTHENEXT12MONTHS,POLICYWILLLARGELYBECONCENTRATEDONSUPPLYSIDEMEASURES,INOURVIEWPOLITICSANEWCHIEFEXECUTIVEIN2012WEWOULDHIGHLIGHTTHATTHECURRENTHONGKONGCHIEFEXECUTIVESTENURECOMESTOANENDINCOULDCREATESOMEUNCERTAINTYMID2012ANDTHISCOULDLEADTOSOMEPOTENTIALCHANGEINTHEPOLITICALENVIRONMENTTHEAROUNDHOUSINGPOLICYRISKISTHATEITHERTHECURRENTCHIEFEXECUTIVEWOULDLIKETOLEAVEOFFICEWITHALARGESCALERUNOFFPROJECT,SUCHASKAITAKAIRPORTREDEVELOPMENT,ORTHEINCOMINGCHIEFEXECUTIVEWOULDFEELCOMPELLEDTOACTONRISINGPROPERTYPRICESWEARERELUCTANTTODRAWTOOMUCHPARALLELWITH1997HANDOVERPERIOD,BUTWETHINKINVESTORSSHOULDEXPECTINCREASEDUNCERTAINTYAROUNDPROPERTYPOLICYFROMACHANGEINCHIEFEXECUTIVEFORTHEMOMENTHOWEVER,WEEXPECTGOVERNMENTPOLICYTOBEFOCUSEDONINCREASINGLONGERTERMSUPPLYANDTHEINTRODUCTIONOFSOMEPOLICYMEASURESATTHEMARGIN,NEITHEROFWHICHWETHINKWILLSIGNIFICANTLYCURTAILNEARTERMDEMANDIRONICALLY,WEBELIEVETHEGOVERNMENTSFISCALSPENDINGONITSTENLARGEINFRASTRUCTUREPROJECTSOVERTHENEXT12260,30069,30068,80068,60068,60068,90069,60060517,30053605,9903206,66017,12716,902IMMIGRANTSFROMCHINA53,6556006020,50031,10032,00033,20035,00035,20035,60036,10035,500MIGRATIONPOPULATIONGROWTH060,00059,60HOUSEHOLDSIZES3273213173160031,97329,32029,56329,97630,026PUBLICRENTAL60520,9VIEWPRICEFORECASTSWEEXPECTPROPERTYPRICESTOOURTHESISISTOEXPECTAPROPERTYPRICEOVERSHOOTLOWHOUSINGSUPPLY,AGOVERNMENTOVERSHOOTUNWILLINGTODEFLATEHOMEPRICES,ANOVERLYEASYMONETARYENVIRONMENT,INCREASINGCONSUMERCONFIDENCEANDINVESTMENTDRIVENDEMANDALLPOINTTOTHISTHECURRENTMOMENTUMINENDPRICESCOULDRUNFORANOTHER18260866056535160585550082777369666360585508580767269666360SOURCEBARCLAYSCAPITALESTIMATES23NOVEMBER201031BARCLAYSCAPITAL|HONGKONGPROPERTYDEVELOPERSRISKSTOOURPRICEFORECASTSTHERISKSTOOURPRICEFORECASTSAREFOURFOLD1GOVERNMENTPOLICYCHANGESTHEGOVERNMENTBECOMESMOREINTERVENTIONISTINTHEMARKET,BYFOCUSINGMEASURESONTHEDEMANDSIDEOFTHEMARKETANDFURTHERREDUCINGAFFORDABILITYORACCESSTOCREDIT2SIGNIFICANTCORRECTIONINCHINASECONOMICGROWTHRISINGINFLATIONCAUSESTHECHINESEGOVERNMENTTORAISEINTERESTRATESSIGNIFICANTLY,SLOWINGGROWTHANDNEGATIVELYAFFECTINGCONFIDENCE,CAUSINGAPULLBACKINDEMANDANDOUTFLOWOFCAPITALFROMCHINA3USINTERESTRATESRISEFASTERTHANEXPECTEDTHISCOULDCAUSEANEGATIVEIMPACTONMARKETAFFORDABILITYANDCHANGINGBUYERPERCEPTIONWITHREGARDTOFUTUREHOMEPRICEINCREASESVIEWWHILEMOSTBORROWERSHAVEALSONEGOTIATEDACAPINTERMSOFAPRIMEMINUSMORTGAGECOLLAR,WITHBANKSEFFECTIVELYACTINGASIFTHEYAREHIBORFUNDED,AMATERIALJUMPINHIBORWOULDALSOMEANAMATERIALJUMPINPRIMEANDASIGNIFICANTRISEINMORTGAGECOSTSINTERESTRATESREMAINTHEBIGGESTGIVENTHEPOLITICALRISKSASSOCIATEDWITHACORRECTIONINTHEPROPERTYMARKET,WETHINKTHERISKCHINAINTHENEARTERMANDRISKOFGOVERNMENTINTERVENTIONISLIMITEDTOSLOWINGGROWTH,RATHERTHANCAUSINGAMARKETTHEUSINTHELONGERTERMCORRECTIONHENCE,THEREALRISKTOTHEMARKETREMAINSACHANGEINANEXTERNALFACTORTHATAFFECTSHOMEBUYERSAFFORDABILITYANDCONFIDENCEINRISINGPRICES,WHICH,FORTHEMOMENT,APPEARSTORESTWITHASIGNIFICANTSLOWDOWNINCHINASECONOMICGROWTHORWITHINCREASINGUSINTERESTRATESTHEMOREIMMEDIATERISKFORTHEMARKETCOMESFROMCHINA,INOURVIEWRISINGINFLATIONCOULDPRELUDEASIGNIFICANTUPWARDINCREASEININTERESTRATESNOTOURECONOMISTSVIEWTOENCOURAGEPEOPLETOSAVERATHERTHANSPENDTHISCOULDAFFECTFUNDFLOWS,ENCOURAGINGMAINLANDBUYERSTOREMAININAHIGHERYIELDINGANDPOTENTIALLYAPPRECIATINGRMB,RATHERTHANALLOCATINGCAPITALTOHONGKONGPROPERTYSECOND,RISINGRATESCOULDNEGATIVELYIMPACTEQUITYMARKETRETURNSHAVINGANEGATIVEAFFECTONINVESTMENTSENTIMENTANDSLOWINGDOMESTICCAPITALFLOWSINTOPROPERTYFORTHEMOMENT,THISISNOTOURCENTRALVIEW,BUTWETHINKITREMAINSACONCERNINVESTORSSHOULDBEMINDFULOFTHELONGERTERMRISKFORTHEMARKET,HOWEVER,CONTINUESTORESTWITHUSINTERESTSWHILETHERISEINMORTGAGELENDINGOVERTHEPASTTHREEYEARSREFLECTSTHEINCREASEDMARKETTURNOVERANDRISEINPROPERTYPRICES,LITTLEEQUITYEXTRACTIONONREFINANCINGANDASIGNIFICANTPRINCIPLEREPAYMENTRATEONTHEMORTGAGEBOOKHASMEANTTHATHK250300BNHASBEENLENTONPROPERTYOVERTHEPASTTHREEYEARS,ATATIMEWHENONLY33,000NEWHOMESHAVEBEENADDEDTOTHEHOUSINGSTOCKINCREASEDMORTGAGEBORROWINGWITHINVESTMENTDRIVENDEMANDANDTHEAVAILABILITYOFCREDITINCREASINGLYDOMINATINGTHEMAKESUSINTERESTRATESTHEMARKET,WEWOULDEXPECTBORROWINGLEVELSTOINCREASEOVER201112FIRSTTIMEBUYERSWILLLARGESTANDMOSTOBVIOUSRISKLIKELYNEEDTOINCREASINGLYTAPTHEMIPTOFUNDDEPOSITS,UPGRADERSWILLNEEDFURTHERDEBTTOPUPTOBRIDGETHEWIDENINGHOUSINGLADDERANDINVESTORSWILLLIKELYGEARUPONLOW,AVAILABLEDEBTENCOURAGEDBYTHEPROSPECTOFMAKINGAPROFITONTHEBACKOFSOMEONEELSESMONEY23NOVEMBER201032BARCLAYSCAPITAL|HONGKONGPROPERTYDEVELOPERSHIDDENSUPPLYTHISISNOTTOSAYOUTSIDETHOSETAKINGMORTGAGESTHROUGHTHEMIP,LTVONMORTGAGESARELIKELYTOMATERIALLYRISEOVERTHEIRCURRENT60AVERAGELEVELHOWEVER,ITDOESHIGHLIGHTTHATPROPERTYBUYERSWILLBEINCREASINGLYDEBTFUNDEDANDTHEREFOREMORESENSITIVETOINTERESTRATESTHELONGERTHISCYCLECONTINUESHENCE,OURBIGGESTCONCERNISTHATTHEMARKETWILLSIMPLYBECOMEMOREVULNERABLETOANINTERESTRATEUPCYCLEANDWETHINKBY2H12,THISWILLBETHEBIGGESTANDMOSTOBVIOUSRISKTOAPOTENTIALCORRECTIONINPROPERTYPRICESATURNINTHECYCLEWILLSEETHEWITHREGARDSTOAPOTENTIALPROPERTYPRICECORRECTION,WETHINKINVESTORSSHOULDBEMINDFULRELEASEOFHIDDENSUPPLYANDTHEOFTHEVOLATILENATUREOFHONGKONGPROPERTYPRICES,WHICHINPARTREFLECTSTHESMALL,EQUITYREMOVALOFRENTALSUPPORTDRIVENNATUREOFTHEMARKETGIVENTHESENSITIVITYTOCHANGESINDEMANDANDTHEDESIRETOHOARDPROPERTYINTOANINVESTMENTDRIVENUPCYCLE,THEREISALWAYSAHIDDENELEMENTOFOFFMARKETSUPPLYHELDBYINVESTORS,WHICHINTHISCYCLEISLIKELYTOBEEXACERBATEDBYLOWHOLDINGCOSTSINAPRIL,THEGOVERNMENTANNOUNCEDA105VACANCYRATEFORPROPERTIESOVER1,100SQFT,EVIDENCE,INOURVIEW,OFTHEINVESTMENTDEMANDINTHISMARKETYET,DEFLATINGMORTGAGECOSTSBYCAPITALAPPRECIATIONSHOWSTHEINCENTIVEFORINVESTORSTOCONTINUETOHOLDPROPERTIESVACANTFORTHEEASEOFFUTURESALETHEREISTYPICALLYA10SALESPRICEDISCOUNTFORATENANTEDPROPERTYWHILEWESEENOREASONFORTHISSTOCKTORETURNTOTHEMARKETINTHENEARTERM,ONCETHECYCLETURNS,SUPPLYWILLLIKELYCOMEBACKTOTHEMARKET,REMOVINGTHEPERCEPTIONOFLOWSUPPLYANDRENTALYIELDSUPPORTFORPRICESFIGURE600306002036060SOURCEBARCLAYSCA
温馨提示
- 1. 本站所有资源如无特殊说明,都需要本地电脑安装OFFICE2007和PDF阅读器。图纸软件为CAD,CAXA,PROE,UG,SolidWorks等.压缩文件请下载最新的WinRAR软件解压。
- 2. 本站的文档不包含任何第三方提供的附件图纸等,如果需要附件,请联系上传者。文件的所有权益归上传用户所有。
- 3. 本站RAR压缩包中若带图纸,网页内容里面会有图纸预览,若没有图纸预览就没有图纸。
- 4. 未经权益所有人同意不得将文件中的内容挪作商业或盈利用途。
- 5. 人人文库网仅提供信息存储空间,仅对用户上传内容的表现方式做保护处理,对用户上传分享的文档内容本身不做任何修改或编辑,并不能对任何下载内容负责。
- 6. 下载文件中如有侵权或不适当内容,请与我们联系,我们立即纠正。
- 7. 本站不保证下载资源的准确性、安全性和完整性, 同时也不承担用户因使用这些下载资源对自己和他人造成任何形式的伤害或损失。
最新文档
- CHT 1029.2-2013 航空摄影成果质量检验技术规程 第2部分:框幅式数字航空摄影
- 部编版六年级数学下册期中考试卷(A4版)
- 2022-2023年部编版七年级数学上册期末试卷(真题)
- 新人教版五年级语文上册期末考试及答案【可打印】
- 人教版九年级语文上册期末模拟考试含答案
- 部编人教版五年级上册语文期末考试卷【加答案】
- 部编人教版七年级数学(上册)期末卷及答案
- 人教版五年级上册语文期末测试卷(真题)
- 2024届青海省西宁市大通县高三下学期第二模拟考试文科综合试题-高中地理
- 2024届河北省沧州市泊头市高三复习质量检测二模地理试题(含答案解析)
- 常用纺织纤维性能汇总表
- 浅析胖东来商贸集团的营销策略
- 11首柯南主题曲歌词,日汉
- 用户操作手册-富士施乐
- 游标卡尺读数专项训练含答案
- 《人类成长与社会环境》形考作业1-4答案
- 西安电子科技大学编制外聘用人员管理办法试行西安电子科技大学
- 平面设计费价目表
- 日处理200t鲜奶的脱脂乳粉厂设计
- 危险化学品 锌粉MSDS[参照分析]
- 关于建筑施工企业组织机构图
评论
0/150
提交评论