高盛-欧洲经济分析2015-2018-年展望小幅好转但起色不大1

1、2014 年 11 月 21 日Issue No: 14/41欧洲经济分析研究报告2015-2018 年展望：小幅好转但起色不大经济增速将缓慢改善，但仍将保持疲弱我们对于欧元区的预测显示未来几个季度 GDP 增速将缓慢提高，但表现依然不振。就积极的方面而言，我们认为部分拖累今年增长的因素将是暂时现象，而且部分更深层次的因素将略有缓解。但即便如此，它们的作用仍不可小觑，我们预计经济回暖将因此受到牵制。我们预计欧元区之外的经济增长将更为强劲，但会受到欧洲最大经济体表现疲弱的拖累。欧元区将面临持续的低通胀局面，但不会陷于通缩在欧元区经济增长疲软之际，通胀率已经降至接近零点。虽然我们预计一段时间内通胀

2、率仍将保持在这一不理想的低位，但是我们认为欧元区直接陷入长期通缩的可能性有限，原因如下：第一，尽管失业率高企，但欧元区就业市场存在结构性刚性，各国国内的成本压力仍符合通胀率小幅为正的表现。第二，跨国研究证据表明通缩是罕见的，而且很难在独立制定货币政策的国家里发生。推行更多放松举措，但基于国债购买的 QE 并非我们的基本假设考虑到增长和通胀表现疲弱，我们预计欧洲央行将在 2017 年三季度之前把欧元区隔夜利率(EONIA)保持在当前介于 0%至-0.05%的水平。我们还预计欧洲央行将在未来几个月宣布进一步的放松举措，扩展并深化已经宣布的 T-LTRO、担保债券和 ABS 购买计划。但是，考虑到欧

3、元区选择国债 QE 会带来较高的（政治）固定成本，我们仍然认为欧洲央行开展大规模国债购买的可能性约为 1/3。国债 QE 的潜在触发因素我们预测面临的主要风险（它几乎肯定会促使欧洲央行开始大规模购买国债）是通胀预期下滑可能在薪资和价格的设定行为中得到固化，导致全区域陷入自我实现式的通缩走势。投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。/research/hedge.html。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅高盛集团全球投资研究Huw Pill+44(20)7774-8736 高盛国际Kevin Daly+44(20)7774

4、-5908 高盛国际Dirk Schumacher+49(69)7532-1210 高盛股份公司Andrew Benito+44(20)7051-4004 高盛国际Alain Durr+33(1)4212-1127 Goldman Sachs Paris Inc. et CieLasse Holboell Nielsen+44(20)7774-5205 高盛国际Pierre Vernet+44(

5、20)7552-0428 高盛国际2014 年 11 月 21 日欧洲经济分析Europes outlook for 2015-2018: A little better, but not greatEuro area growth in 2014: From a sluggish pace to a crawlHaving emerged from recession in early 2013, the Euro area expanded by 1.0% in the year to 2014Q1, not far below our estimat

6、e of the economys long-term potential (around 1.0-1.5%). Since the spring, however, Euro area economic growth has slowed once again: Euro area GDP rose by just 0.1%qoq in 2014Q2 and +0.2%qoq in 2014Q3 (an average growth rate of 0.5%qoq annualised). Business surveys have been consistent with slightly

7、 stronger growth over this period but they, too, have weakened (Exhibit 1).Three factors contributed to the slowdown, in our view, all of which appear largely temporary in nature:Statistical/seasonal effects: Part of the deceleration was due to one-off factors, notably the reversal of the boost to Q

8、1 output from an unusually mild winter in northern Europe.Global/common factors: The slowdown in the Euro area coincided with a moderation in global growth, suggesting that, in addition to Euro area-specific factors, part of the deceleration was driven by global (or common) ones. Our global economic

9、 forecasts imply that growth is likely to re-accelerate into 2015.1Euro strength: Between 2012Q3 and 2014Q1, the Euros real effective exchange rate appreciated by more than 10%, enough to knock around 0.5% off the level of real GDP over a period of two years, all else equal (Exhibit 2).2Exhibit 1: E

10、uro area growth has slowedEuro area GDP, Composite PMIExhibit 2: The Euros real effective exchange rate rose 10% between 2012Q3 and 2014Q1 but has since fallen 6% Euro real effective exchange rate (CPI deflated)1251.21.00.20.0-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8%qoq Composite PMI-based indicatorEuro area actua

11、l real GDP120115110105Euro real effective exchange rate (CPI defl.)1011121314151000506070809101112131415Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment ResearchSource: ECB1 “Keeping the faith”, Global Economics Weekly, November 19, 2014.2 Of course, all else is rarely equal. A key factor un

12、derlying the appreciation of the Euro over this period was the inflow of global portfolio flows into Euro area assets, following ECB President Mario Draghis famous “whatever it takes” commitment in July 2012. For this reason, it is somewhat artificial to separate the negative effect of Euro apprecia

13、tion on growth from the positive effects that came from the reinvestment into peripheral assets. Nevertheless, by the middle of 2014, it is clear that the significant appreciation of the Euro over the previous 18 months was beginning to have a negative effect on Euro area growth.全球投资研究22014 年 11 月 2

14、1 日欧洲经济分析Euro area growth in 2015: From a crawl back to a sluggish paceOur forecast implies that Euro area growth will gradually pick up as we head into 2015. In part, this reflects our view that the factors that caused the slowdown this year will prove temporary and begin to fade.However, in additi

15、on to this, some of the deeper headwinds that the Euro area faces a sub- optimal fiscal and monetary policy mix, financial sector fragmentation and an over-valued exchange rate appear to be easing, at least at the margin:The pace of fiscal consolidation has slowed: In response to the European sovere

16、ign crisis, area-wide fiscal policy was tightened materially between 2011 and 2013. According to our estimates, the fiscal adjustment reduced area-wide GDP growth by around 0.5-1.0pp in both 2012 and 2013, all else equal (Exhibit 3).3 By contrast, the negative area-wide fiscal impulse has slowed to

17、around 10-15bp this year and, on our estimates, we expect a slightly smaller drag in 2015.The ECB has eased (and is in the process of easing) policy further: In the course of the past six months, the ECB has cut the MRO rate from 0.25% to 0.05%, driven the key EONIA rate into negative territory, str

18、engthened its interest rate guidance and engaged in a series of credit easing measures (the T-LTROs and the covered bond and ABS purchase programmes). Irrespective of whether the ECB should have gone (or should go) further than this, it is clear that policy is in the process of being eased at the ma

19、rgin.The Euro exchange rate has weakened materially: Having appreciated by 10% between 2012Q3 and 2014Q1, the Euros real effective exchange rate has fallen by 6% in the past six months, a development that is likely to benefit Euro area growth, as wellas boosting Euro area inflation (Exhibit deprecia

20、tion in the quarters ahead.2,again).Weexpectfurthersignificant3 The estimates of the fiscal drag set out in Exhibit 3 take account both of the size of the fiscal adjustments in each year and our state- and country-contingent estimates of fiscal multipliers for Euro area countries. The biggest fiscal

21、 adjustments occurred in 2012 but, because some of the effects on growth are felt with a lag, we estimate that the effect on growth was broadly comparable in 2012 and 2013. The estimates set out in Exhibit 3 are for the Euro area as a whole. The impact on growth in the Euro area periphery was clearl

22、y much larger than this. For more details, see “What to expect from fiscal policy in Europe”, European Economics Analyst, November 6, 2014.全球投资研究32014 年 11 月 21 日欧洲经济分析Exhibit 3: The pace of fiscal consolidation in the Euro area has slowed significantlyFiscal drag 2012 - 2018 (GS estimates for 2012-

23、2013; GS projections for 2014-18)Exhibit 4: Bank lending rates to companies remain divergent, but have been trending downwards in Spain% pa, interest rates on business loans up to 1mn with maturity between 1 and 5 years7.00.20pp%0.006.0-0.205.0Fiscal policy is a net drag on growth-0.404.0Germany Fra

24、nce Italy Spain-0.60EMU43.005-0.80060708091011121314152012201320142015201620172018Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment ResearchSource: Goldman Sachs Global Investment ResearchCreditconditionsare slowly easing: One of the major challenges facingpolicymakers in the Euro area is that, as a result of

25、 the fragmentation of the Euro areas financial system, the transmission of monetary policy to the periphery is impaired (thereby restricting the flow of credit to the economies that need it most). While this remains a major challenge, there is evidence that the flow of credit to the periphery is beg

26、inning to ease. Moreover, following the recent completion of the ECBs Asset Quality Review, we expect this easing to continue. Borrowing costs are still higher in the periphery than in the core but the difference with the core is falling, particularly in Spain (Exhibit 4). Meanwhile, the ECBs credit

27、 conditions survey points to a gradually easing of credit supply.In addition to these Euro area-specific factors, the sharp fall in the price of oil since the end of June is also likely to support growth. The Euro price of oil has declined by 25- 30% from the average recorded through the first half

28、of the year. On our estimates, a decline of this size will, if maintained, add around 1.0-1.5% to the level of Euro area real GDP over the next two years, all else equal.4Set against these positives, the Euro area continues to struggle with sizeable institutional challenges and a large degree of unc

29、ertainty (both economic and political). While the headwinds that the economy faces may be easing at the margin, they nevertheless remain brisk. Moreover, as forecasters, we are also mindful of the frequency with which the Euro area economy has disappointed in the past. For these reasons, while we ex

30、pect growth to pick up, we nevertheless expect it to remain sluggish this is likely to remain a weaker than normal recovery.Exhibit 5 sets out our European GDP forecasts for the period 2014 to 2018. On a sequential basis, we expect output to accelerate from a 0.1-0.2%qoq (or 0.4-0.8%qoq annualised)

31、pace in 2014Q2 and 2014Q3 to a 0.3-0.4%qoq (1.2-1.6%qoq annualised) pace in the second half of 2015 and beyond. In annual terms, we expect Euro area GDP growth of 0.9% in 2015, rising to 1.4% in 2016 and 1.5% in 2017 and 2018. Our growth forecasts for 2016-18 are slightly above our estimates of the

32、Euro areas long-term potential (1.0-1.5% per annum).4 “Cheaper crude with a weaker Euro a boost to growth and a small drag on inflation”, European Economics Daily, October 15, 2014.全球投资研究42014 年 11 月 21 日欧洲经济分析Exhibit 5: Our annual GDP growth forecasts, 2014-18* Mainland GDP for Norway.Source: Goldm

33、an Sachs Global Investment ResearchOn a country-by-country basis5, we expect Germany and Spain to grow at above the area-wide pace. The two economies are clearly at different stages of their respective economic cycles but both, in their way, are profiting from the successful implementation of earlie

34、r structural reform (in Germanys case, from the Hartz reforms of the mid-2000s and, in Spains case, from the post- crisis reforms implemented by the current government). For Germany, we expect modestly easier fiscal policy to provide a (small) additional boost to growth in the coming years. For Spai

35、n, the relatively decisive action taken in recapitalising its banking system is now bearing fruit, with borrowing costs falling more rapidly than in Italy and elsewhere in the periphery (Exhibit 4, again).Relative to Germany and Spain, we are more concerned about growth prospects in France and, part

36、icularly, in Italy. We expect growth in France to underperform area-wide growth in 2015, amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding prospects for further structural reform and fiscal consolidation.6 We expect the Italian economy to exit recession in 2015 but that output growth will remain weak until 2017.

37、 At that stage, we expect growth to rise as a (lagged) consequence of the reforms that we expect the Renzi government to implement over the next year. However, if these reforms fail to be implemented, or prove disappointing, growth in Italy is likely to remain sclerotic.Growth in UK, Scandinavia and

38、 Switzerland constrained by Euro area weaknessOutput growth has been stronger in the UK, Sweden, Norway and Switzerland than in the Euro area, but the relative weakness of Euro area growth has presented (and, on our forecast, is likely to continue to present) a common challenge to all:n The UK has b

39、een a notable outperformer among European economies in the past 18 months, with the ongoing recuperation of its banking system (and the associated improvement in credit provision) playing a major part in the recovery.7 However, UK activity indicators have slowed somewhat in recent months, a developm

40、ent that appears related to strengthening of Sterling in the past year and the renewed weakness of the5 We shall discuss the prospects for each of the large Euro area economies individually, in separate publications in the coming weeks.6 See “Seven questions on France”, European Economics Analyst, O

41、ctober 16, 2014.7 See “Four puzzles revisited: Much progress but productivity still puzzles”, UK Economics Analyst, October 24, 2014.全球投资研究5GDP %yoy201320142015201620172018Euro area-Germany France ItalySpain-1.9-1.61.5-

42、UKSweden Norway* DenmarkSwitzerland1.73.02.7-2.02.02.02014 年 11 月 21 日欧洲经济分析Euro area (Exhibit 6). Reflecting this evidence of weaker growth, we are lowering our 2015 and 2016 GDP growth projections slightly, from 3.0% to 2.8%,

43、although we remain above consensus on growth.Swedish economic growth has been tracking at a 2.0-2.5% annual pace over the past year, a little below our estimate of the economys long-term growth potential. Aided by a significant easing in monetary policy in the past six months, we forecast that activ

44、ity will accelerate to close to 3.0% next year (above trend and above consensus).Growth in Norway has been reasonably robust over the past year and we expect it to remain so. While weak oil prices may weigh on offshore oil investments, we expect the impact to be moderate as long as spot prices do no

45、t fall too sharply below break-even rates and as long as long-dated oil prices remain relatively well-anchored. We generally view (bounded) oil price declines as neutral or slightly positive for Norwegian mainland GDP.Exhibit 6:Growth is stronger outside the Euro area than it is within it%qoq annl.,

46、 GS Current Activity IndicatorExhibit 7: Unemployment much higher in the Euro area than in the US or UKUnemployment rate7 UK13121110987654% UKUS EMUNorway Sweden Switzerland6543210-1-210392 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 141112131415Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment ResearchSource: Eurostat, BL

47、S, ONSn In Switzerland, where the SNB remains focused on maintaining Swiss Franc stability against the Euro, domestically-focused sectors (such as construction) continue to prosper. We forecast growth of 1.1% next year and 1.9% in 2016.Persistent low inflation but no sustained deflation in the Euro

48、areaAt a time when growth in the Euro area has been weak, inflation has continued to grind lower. Headline CPI inflation stood at +0.4%yoy in October, close to its lowest rate since 2009, while core inflation has remained broadly stable at a little below 1%yoy over the past 12 months.Despite the low

49、 level of inflation, we continue to think that the risk of a sustained period of outright deflation across the Euro area remains limited, for two reasons:Downward pressure from wage costs on inflation remains limited, despite high unemployment: Unemployment remains much higher in the Euro area than

50、in either the US or UK (Exhibit 7). Yet, despite this, the downward pressure from wage costs on inflation in the Euro area remains limited. Euro area wage growth rose from 1.3%yoy to 1.5%yoy and unit labour cost inflation rose from 0.4%yoy to 1.0%yoy in Q2, only slightly lower than in the US and sig

51、nificantly higher than in the UK in both cases. That domestic cost pressures remain consistent with low but positive inflation is reflected in the relative stability of core inflation.The fact that high levels of unemployment have not translated into lower wage growth reflects two structural feature

52、s of the Euro area economy: relatively high levels of labour全球投资研究62014 年 11 月 21 日欧洲经济分析market rigidities and relatively low levels of labour market integration. While unemployment is much higher in the Euro area than in the US and UK, it is not clear that the output gap is that much larger.8 That

53、said, one silver lining is that these structural weaknesses limit the risk of area-wide deflation.n Deflation is extremely rare among countries that set monetary policy independently: Based on an analysis of inflation data for 180 countries over a 54-year period (1960-2013), we have found that defla

54、tion is extremely rare and difficult to generate among countries that set monetary policy independently. Indeed, Japans experience is unique. 9Exhibit 8:We expect Euro area CPI inflation to rise only slowly in the coming yearsEuro area CPI inflation %, yoyExhibit 9: We expect UK inflation to remain

55、below target for the foreseeable futureUK headline and core CPI inflation %, yoy3.03.0Euro area HICP inflation GS forecastsyoy%yoy% yoy5.02.52.5ECB Staff Projections for HICP as of Sept-14GS2.02.04.03.01.11.01.00.62.00.01.0 Headline Core-0.5-0.51314151617180.005 06 07 0809 10 11 12

56、 13 14 15 16 17Source: Eurostat, ECB, Goldman Sachs Global Investment ResearchSource: ONS, Goldman Sachs Global Investment ResearchWhile we think the risk of sustained deflation in the Euro area remains limited, there is a more significant risk of headline inflation falling temporarily below zero as

57、 a result of the ongoing decline in energy prices. Looking beyond the short term, we expect inflation to stay well below the ECBs target of “close to but below 2%” for the foreseeable future, with average inflation of 0.6% in 2015, 1.2% in 2016, 1.7% in 2017 and 1.9% in 2018 (Exhibit 10).Worse scenarios are certainly