世界银行-《埃塞俄比亚国家气候与发展报告》2024年2月（英）

EASTERNANDSOUTHERNAFRICAETHIOPIAWorldBankGroupOFcetborbuearr,y2,0220224©2023TheWorldBankGroup1818

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Washington,DC20433,USA;e-mail:pubrights@.Editing:ChandrahasChoudhuryPhotoCredit:WorldBankCollectionEditorialCredit:HaDoanDesignedBy:RootsAdvertisingServicesETHIOPIACOUNTRYCLIMATE

ANDDEVELOPMENT

REPORTContentsAcronyms6Acknowledgements8ExecutiveSummary

10Priority1:Accelerateimplementationofstructuralreformsandpromotesocialsafetynetprograms

16Priority2:Investinclimate-resilientinfrastructure16Priority3:Supportgreaterdecentralizationofclimateresponse171.

Climate-RelatedRisksandOpportunitiesforDevelopment

211.1

Developmentcontext221.1.1

Weakeningeconomicperformance

221.1.2

Astalledstructuraltransformation

231.1.3

Anambitiousreformagenda

261.1.4

Addressingdevelopmentneedsamidstconflictandinflation

261.2

Increasingrisksfromclimatechange271.2.1

Highimpactsofnaturalhazards

271.2.2Increasingclimatevariabilityanduncertaintyunderclimatechange

281.2.3Climatechangecouldthreatendevelopmentgoals

291.3

Challengesandopportunitiesofagreentransition

302.ClimateChangeCommitmentsonMitigationandAdaptation

322.1Climatechangetargetsandcommitments

332.2Thelegalframeworkforclimateaction332.3Policies,strategies,plansformainstreamingclimateaction352.4Institutionalstructureforimplementationandcoordination362.4.1

Climatechangeinstitutionalandgovernancestructures372.4.2Localizationoftheclimatechangeagenda372.4.3Monitoringofclimatechange

382.5Mainstreamingclimatechangeintopublicexpendituremanagement

382.5.1

Integratingclimateintobudgetmanagement

382.5.2Climatechangeinintergovernmentalfiscaltransfers

392.5.3Climateinpublicinvestmentandexpendituremanagement

402.5.4Publicaccountabilityfor

climateexpenditure

413.

SectoralImplicationsofClimateChangeinEthiopia423.1

Copingwithclimateimpactsonwaterandland

433.2Makingagriculturemoreproductiveandclimate-resilient473.3Makingenergy,transport,digital,andcitiesmoreclimate-resilient513.4Diversifytheeconomyby

tappingintominingandtourismopportunities

573.5Protectingandleveraginghumancapitalfor

climateaction

593.6Low-carbondevelopmentopportunities

614.MacroeconomicandPovertyImplicationsofClimateChange644.1

ClimatechangeandEthiopia’sfuturegrowth

654.1.1

Macroeconomicandpovertyimpactsofclimatechange

654.1.2

Povertyanddistributionalimpactsofclimatechange

684.2Fiscalconsiderationsinmanagingclimatechangeimpacts

694.2.1

Structuralreformsarecriticalto

expandfiscalspace

714.2.2Enablingtheprivatesector

724.2.3Managingresidualrisks744.2.4Mobilizingexternalandblendedfinance:optionsfor

Ethiopia

754.3Supportingthemostvulnerable775.PriorityPolicyActionsandInvestments

79Acronyms10YNDPADLIAfCFTAAFR100BAU10

Years

NationalDevelopmentPlanAgricultureDevelopmentLedIndustrializationAfricanContinentalFree

Trade

AreaAfricanForestLandRestorationInitiativeBusinessasusualCALMCBTClimateActionthroughLandscapeManagementClimateBudgetTaggingCERsCMIP6CRGEDACCertifiedemissionsreductionsCoupledModelIntercomparisonProjectPhase6ClimateResilientandGreenEconomyDevelopmentAssistanceCommitteeDebt-for-natureswapDNSDRFDisasterRiskFinancingEDRMCEIAEIHEthiopiaDisasterRiskManagementCommissionEnvironmentalImpactAssessmentEthiopianInvestmentHoldingsEPAEnvironmentalProtectionAuthorityEmergencyPreparednessandResponseProgramEthiopianPetroleumSupplyEnterpriseEnvironmentalandSocialImpactandAssessmentEnvironmentalandSocialManagementPlanFederalDemocraticRepublicofEthiopiaFDREPublicProcurementandPropertyAuthorityFoodProductionUnitEPRPEPSEESIAESMPFDREFPPAFPUFXForeignexchangeGCFGreenClimateFundGCMGHGGlobalCirculationModelGreenhousegasGoEGovernmentofEthiopiaGTPGrowthandTransformationPlanHomeGrownEconomicReformAgendaNationalHealthAdaptationPlanto

ClimateChangeHouseofFederationHGERAH-NAPHoFHSTPICTIDPsIFMISIFRSIMFHealthSectorTransformationPlanInformationandCommunicationsTechnologyInternallydisplacedpersonsIntegratedFinancialManagementInformationSystemInternationalFinancialReportingStandardsInternationalMonetaryFundIPPIndependentPower

ProducerLICLower-incomecountryLT-LEDSLUCFM&EMCRPMFILong-Term

LowEmissionsDevelopmentStrategyLandUseChangeandForestryMonitoringandEvaluationMineClosureandRehabilitationPlanMicrofinanceMFModWorldBankMacroFiscalModel6

|CountryClimateandDevelopmentReport:EthiopiaMinTMoFMinistryofInnovationandTechnologyMinistryofFinanceMoHMinistryofHealthMoILMoPDMoWEMRVMinistryofIrrigationandLowlandsMinistryofPlanningandDevelopmentMinistryofWater

andEnergyMonitoring,ReportingandVerificationMilliontonnes(metrictons)ofcarbondioxideequivalentMegawattMtCO

e2MWNAPNationalAdaptationPlanNBENationalBankofEthiopiaNAPANDCNGFSNPVNationalAdaptationProgrammeofActionNationallyDeterminedContributionNetworkfor

GreeningtheFinancialSystemNetPresentValueODAOfficialDevelopmentAssistanceOrganizationfor

EconomicCooperationandDevelopmentOfficeoftheFederalAuditor-GeneralOromiaForestandWildlifeEnterprisePerformance-basedallocationProjectConceptNoteOECDOFAGOFWEPBAPCNPEHAAPIMPPAPublicEnterprisesHoldingandAdministrationAgencyPublicInvestmentManagementPolicyandPerformanceActionPublic-PrivatePartnershipPPPPSNPPWProductiveSafetyNetProgramPublicWorksREGREPRSFSDGSNNPSLBEthiopiaRenewableEnergyGuaranteesProgramResilienceandSustainabilityFacilitySustainableDevelopmentGrantSouthernNations,Nationalities,andPeopleSustainability-linkedbondSLMSMEsSOESustainableLandManagementSmallandMediumEnterprisesState-OwnedEnterpriseSSASub-SaharanAfricaSSPSTMPSharedSocioeconomicPathwaySustainableTourism

MasterPlanTonnes

(metrictons)ofcarbondioxideequivalentTerawatt

hourstCO

E2TWhUCTUppercredittrancheUHCUniversalHealthCoverageUNFCCCVCMUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeVoluntarycarbonmarketVCSVerifiedCarbonStandardVERSVREVerifiedemissionsreductionsVariablerenewableenergyWASHWater,

sanitationandhygieneAlldollaramountsareUSdollars.CountryClimateandDevelopmentReport:Ethiopia|7AcknowledgementsThe

Ethiopia

Country

Climate

and

Development

Report

(CCDR)

captures

the

interplay

betweendevelopment,climate

changeandclimate

policies.Thisreportwas

developedby

individualsacrosstheWorld

Bank

Group

(WBG),

in

coordination

with

the

Government

of

Ethiopia

(GoE),

to

promote

sustainableandresilientdevelopmentinthefaceofclimatechange.The

preparation

of

the

report

was

co-led

by

Urvashi

Narain

(Lead

Economist,

SAEE3),

Tehmina

Khan

(LeadEconomist/Program

Leader,

EAEDR),

TewodrosDessie

(Economist,

CAFCE)

and

Ulf

Narloch

(Former-TTL,Senior

Environmental

Economist,

World

Bank).

Key

contributions

were

made

by

Lulit

Beyene

(SeniorEconomist,

EMFMD),

Katherine

Polkinghorne

(Climate

Change

Economist/Consultant,

SAEE2),

BrentBoehlert

(Principle

Environmental

Economist/Consultant),

Kenneth

Strzepek

(Land-Water

ModelingSpecialist/Consultant),

Adrian

Leigh

Vogl

(Land-Water

Modeling

Specialist/Consultant,

SENGL),

andJorgeEduardoLeonSarmiento(LandModelingSpecialist).We

are

grateful

for

the

overall

guidance

from

Ousmane

Dione

(Country

Director,

AECE3),

HiroyukiHatashima

(Chief

Evaluation

Officer,

MIGES)

and

Mary

Peschka

(Director,

CAEDR),

Iain

Shuker

(RegionalDirector,

Sustainable

Development),

Jumoke

Jagun-Dokunmu

(Regional

Director

for

Eastern

Africa,IFC),MerliMargaretBaroudi

(Director,

MIGES),Ayat

Soliman(Regional

Director,

AfricaEastandSouth),Madalo

Minofu

(Country

Manager,

CAEET),

Stephan

Dreyhaupt

(Principal

Economist,

CAFCE),

MarcoHernandez

(EAEM2),

David

Lord

(Program

Leader

SAEDR),

Xiaoping

Wang

(Program

Leader,

IAEDR),

andSuleimanNamara(LeadSocialProtectionSpecialist,HAES1).The

team

also

wishes

to

thank

peer

reviewers

Kevin

Carey

(Advisor,

EMFDR),

Ellysar

Baroudy

(LeadNational

Resources

Management

Specialist,

SAWE1),

Vikas

Choudhary

(Senior

Agricultural

Specialist,SEAAG),

Pravin

Karki

(Senior

Hydropower

Specialist,

IEEGK),

and

Volker

Treichel

(Principal

Economist,IFC)andSzilviaDoczi(SeniorEnergyEconomist,IECDR)for

theirconstructiveandvaluableinputs.Thank

you

toour

sector

experts

and

colleagues

from

the

wider

CCDR

team

which

includes

the

following.Key

sector

modelling:

Tim

Thomas

(CGIAR),

Yohannes

Daniel

(IFPRI),

Faaiqa

Hartley

(IFPRI)

and

MrSolomon

Feleke

(Consultant).

Sustainable

Development:

David

Malcolm

Lord

(Lead).

Administrativesupport:

Esther

Bea

(Program

Assistant,

SAEE2),

Etsubdink

Tesfaye

(Team

Assistant,

AECE3)

andAlemshetDegu(Assistant,AECE3).Agriculture:Elliot

Mghenyi

(Lead),JerenKabayeva,

Assaye

Legesse,Esayas

Gebremeskel,

Welela

Ketema,

Hayalsew

Yilma,

Biruktayet

Betremariam,

Shijie

Yang.

Water:Habab

Taifour

(Lead),

Iain

Menzies,

LauraBonzanigo,

Wendwosen

Feleke,

Yohannes

Fisseha,

AmanuelWoldetsadik,

Antonio

Rodriguez

Serrano,

Diego

Rodriguez.

Environment,

Natural

Resources,

and

BlueEconomy:

Ross

Hughes

(Lead),

Shewakena

Abab,

Hailu

Ayele,

Elisson

Wright,

Million

Gizaw,

DawitMulatu.

Urban,

Disaster

Risk

Management,

Resilience

and

Land:

Martin

Onyach-Olaa,

Dinkneh

Tefera,Lukas

Loeschner,

Ko

Takeuchi,

Mercedes

Stickler,

Harum

Mukhayer.

Social

Sustainability

and

Inclusion:MarikoYamamoto

(Lead),AndrewRoberts,Gibwa

Kajubi,SimonSottsas,Yalemzewud

Tiruneh,SamuelDemsash,

Matthew

Stephens.

Energy:

Mikul

Bhatia

(Lead),

Xiaoping

Wang,

Abdulhakim

Abdisubhan,Kenta

Usui,

Wendayehu

Demissie

Tekalign,

Maria

Arango.

Extractives:

Martin

Lokanc.

Transport:

Yi

Yang(Lead)

Fang

Xu,

Getachew

Debela,

Digital:

Victor

Kyalo

(Lead),

Tim

Kelly,

Lamia

Naji.

Education:

AdemeZeyede

Hailu

(Lead).

Health:

Roman

Tesfaye

(Lead),

Enias

Baganizi,

Tseganeh

Guracha,

TewodrosTesemma.

Social

Protection

and

Jobs:

Belay

Addise

(Lead),

Suleiman

Namara,

Ayuba

Hussein,

IanCampbell.

From

the

Economic

Growth,

Finance,

and

Institutions

teams

this

includes

Macroeconomics,Trade

and

Investment:

Vinayak

Nagaraj,

Samuel

Mulugeta,

Mohammad

Khabbazan,

Poverty

andEquity:

Obert

Pimhidzai

(Lead),

Cesar

Cancho,

Wondimagegn

Tesfaye,

Daniel

Valderrama.

Finance,8

|CountryClimateandDevelopmentReport:EthiopiaCompetitiveness

&

Innovation:

Mengistu

Achew

(Lead),

Senidu

Fanuel,

Bisrat

Mekonnen,

MarlonRawlins,

Evie

Calcutt.

Governance:

Rafika

Chaouali

(Lead),

Anjani

Kumar,

Abiy

Belay,

Jay-Hyung

Kim,Lobna

Ahmed,

Shrikant

Baldi.

Legal:

Remi

Moncel

(Co-lead),

Christine

Makori

(Co-lead),

Navya

Jannu.Communications:

Gelila

Woodeneh,

Zena

Demissie.

We

are

also

grateful

for

the

guidance

from

JulesLeichter

(IMF),

Jessica

Wade

(MIGA),

Moritz

Nebe

(MIGA)

and

Memory

Machingambi

(IFC).

Fragility,Conflict

and

Violence

(FCV)

experts:

Mohamed

Abdel-Razig,

Lindsey

Jones,

Joanna

Turner(IFC),

HannahBlyth

(IFC)

and

Amira

Mekonen

(IFC).

Editing

and

inputs:

Professor

Sudhir

Shetty

(Former

Chief

Economistfor

EAP/Consultant).The

team

would

like

to

thank

colleagues

of

GoE

who

provided

guidance

and

technical

inputs

to

this

work.In

particular,

the

focal

points

from

Ministry

of

Planning

and

Development

(MoPD)—

Mr

Abas

Mohammed(CEO

for

Climate

Change),

Ministry

of

Finance

(MoF)

and

Mr.

Abebe

Tadesse

(Director,

InternationalFinancial

Institutions

Directorate).

Additionally,

guidance

from

the

Ministry

of

Agriculture

(MoA),

Ministryof

Health

(MoH),

Ministry

of

Industry

(MoI),

Ministry

of

Transport

and

Logistics

(MoTL),

Ministry

of

Urbanand

Infrastructure

(MoUI),

Ministry

of

Water

and

Energy

(MoWE),

and

Ethiopian

Road

Administration(ERA)

contributed

to

the

alignment

of

this

document

with

the

GoE

climate

and

development

objectivesandisgratefullyacknowledged.The

report

benefited

from

key

studies

on

natural

capital

and

climate

finance

where

funding

was

providedby

theClimateSupportFacility(CSF)andtheClimateInvestment

Fund

(CIF),respectively.

Supportfromthe

Global

Program

on

Sustainability

(GPS)

resources

and

PROGREEN-funded

Biodiversity,

Ecosystem-based

Landscape

Assessment

(BELA)

initiative

is

also

appreciated

and

supported

modeling

thatinformedthelandmanagementandotherpartsoftheCCDR.CountryClimateandDevelopmentReport:Ethiopia|9EXECUTIVESUMMARY10

|CountryClimateandDevelopmentReport:EthiopiaBackgroundGrowing

economic

and

social

challenges

threaten

Ethiopia’s

economic

success

over

the

past

twodecades.

Exceptional

growth

of

over

10

percent

between

2004

and

2019

placed

Ethiopia

among

thefastest-growingeconomiesintheworld,treblingincomespercapitaandcontributingtoasharpreductioninpoverty.

But

these

achievements,

although

impressive,

were

underpinned

by

a

state-led

and

investment-heavy

growth

model

that

contributed

to

macro-imbalances,

a

stalled

structural

transformation,

decliningexternal

competitiveness,

an

acute

shortage

of

fiscal

resources

and

debt

vulnerabilities,

and

increasinglylimited

space

for

the

private

sector

to

operate

in.

Meanwhile,

development

needs

remain

vast,

amid

veryhigh

levels

of

food

insecurity,

and

poverty

reduction

has

slowed

in

recent

years

due

to

multiple

compoundshocks,

including

the

COVID-19

pandemic,

Russia’s

invasion

of

Ukraine

and

resulting

high

global

foodand

energy

prices,

an

extended

drought,

and

the

conflict

in

the

Tigray,

region

and

more

recently

Amhara,region.

In

addition

to

heightened

social

fragility,

such

shocks

have

exacerbated

macroeconomic

fragility.Growth

has

fallen

to

about

6

percent

annually;

this

will

not

be

sufficient

for

Ethiopia

to

achieve

itsappropriately

ambitious

development

goals,

including

reducing

extreme

poverty,

which

still

stands

atalmostaquarterofthepopulation.Climate

shocks

are

magnifying

these

challenges

to

growth

and

development.

The

cumulative

effectsof

the

ongoing

drought

-—

the

most

severe

in

the

last

40

years

with

six

consecutive

failed

or

poor

rainyseasons

—

have

been

devastating

for

people

in

the

arid

pastoral

areas

of

Ethiopia.

Simultaneously,flooding

has

damaged

infrastructure

and

disrupted

livelihoods

in

other

parts

of

the

country.

Climatechange

in

the

coming

decades

could

reduce

the

productivity

of

the

agriculture

sector,

which

currentlyemploys

about

two-thirds

of

Ethiopia’s

workforce,

including

the

most

vulnerable

groups

in

the

population.By

threatening

food

security,

climate

change

will

also

likely

worsen

conflict

within

and

across

regions.Higher

temperatures

and

changes

in

rainfall

patterns

could

also

exacerbate

the

incidence

of

diseasessuch

as

malaria

and

dengue,

which

along

with

likely

adverse

effects

of

heat

stress

will

reduce

laborproductivity

and

the

prospects

of

human

capital

accumulation,

both

critical

to

sustaining

growth.

Climatechange

could

also

damage

energy,

transport,

and

digital

infrastructure

needed

to

support

the

structuraltransformationoftheeconomyto

industryandmanufacturing.The

Government

of

Ethiopia

(GoE)

has

laid

out

an

ambitious

agenda

to

address

these

challengeswith

a

focus

on

diversifying

the

economy

and

making

it

more

resilient

including

to

climate

shocks.The

10

Years

National

Development

Plan

(10YNDP)

defined

ambitious

development

targets

consistentwith

achieving

a

growth

rate

of

10

percent

annually

that

would

also

help

toreduce

extreme

poverty

to7percent

by

2030.

The

2019

Home

Grown

Economic

Reform

Agenda

(HGERA)

identifies

reforms

to

restoremacro

stability,

promote

private

sector

investment

and

raise

productivity

in

key

sectors.

To

address

thethreats

posed

by

climate

change,

Ethiopia

has

articulated

a

Climate

Resilient

Green

Economy

(CRGE)strategy,

establishing

itself

as

a

leader

on

climate

action.

The

GoE

has

signaled

its

strong

commitment

toadaptation

and

has

set

ambitious

mitigation

targets,

as

articulated

in

its

updated

Nationally

DeterminedContribution

(NDC)

in

2021

and

the

Long-Term

Low

Emissions

Development

Strategy

(LT-LEDS)

in

2023.The

Ethiopia

Country

Climate

and

Development

Report

(CCDR)

aims

to

support

Ethiopia’s

plans

toachieve

its

development

goals

within

the

context

of

a

changing

climate.

By

quantifying

the

likelyeconomic

impacts

of

climate

change

on

the

economy

between

now

and

2050,

the

report

highlightsthe

measures

that

the

GoE

needs

to

prioritize

to

prepare

for

these

impacts

and

adapt

to

them

mosteffectively,

with

a

particular

focus

on

actions

that

should

be

taken

throughout

the

remainder

of

thisdecade.

Opportunities

for

low-carbon

growth

as

a

co-benefit

of

development

programs

are

also

examined.CountryClimateandDevelopmentReport:Ethiopia|11Key

FindingsClimate

change

will

impose

large,

and

spatially

varied,

costs

on

the

economyandpeopleThe

modeling

analysis

done

for

the

CCDR

establishes

that

climate

change

will

impost

large

costs

on

theeconomy

and

costs

will

increase

rapidly

after

2030.

The

analysis

establishes

the

first

set

of

quantitativeestimates

of

the

impact

of

climate

change

on

Ethiopia’s

economy

and

shows

that

adverse

impacts

ofclimate

change

will

materialize

through

several

channels:

more

frequent

and

severe

flooding;

reduced

cropand

livestock

yields;

more

variable

hydropower

production;

infrastructure

damage;

and

losses

in

humanhealth

and

productivity.

If

current

policies,

characterized

by

a

large

state

footprint

on

the

economy

andslow

progress

on

structural

reforms,

are

maintained,

referred

to

as

the

Constrained

Growth

(CG)

scenario,average

annual

losses

to

GDP

and

household

consumption

(relative

to

the

baseline

without

a

significantclimate

change

impact)

range

from

1

to

1.5

percent

annually

in

2024-30,

reaching

the

upper

end

of

thisrange

in

the

dry

and

hot

climate

scenario

(Figure

ES-1).

Moreover,

impacts

rapidly

increase

from

2030onwards,

with

average

deviations

from

GDP

and

household

consumption

reaching

as

high

as

5

percentduring

the

2040s.

The

corresponding

cumulative

economic

loss

rises

from

about

10

to

14

percent

(of2022

GDP)

between

2023–30,

to

about

20

to

30

percent

of

average

decadal

GDP

between

2030–40and

even

more

thereafter

(Figure

ES-2).

The

largest

losses

stem

from

reductions

in

livestock

yields

andfrom

heat

stress

on

labor

productivity,

followed

by

impacts

on

roads

and

bridges

and

from

inland

flooding.Reflecting

the

uncertainty

of

climate

change

impacts,

magnitude

of

impacts

will

also

depend

on

whethertheresulting

climate

is

wet

andwarm

or

dry

andhot,

withtheadverse

impacts

beinglargerinthelatter.FigureES-1.AnnualaveragedeviationsfromCGandREFbaselines21ConstrainedGrowth(CG)21StructuralReform(REF)00-1-2-3-4-5-6-1-2-3-4-5-6RealGDPRealGDPDebt/deficitDebt/deficitHouseholdConsumptionHouseholdConsumptionDry

Wetand

andhot

warmDry

Wetand

andhot

warmDry

Wetand

andhot

warmDry

Wetand

andhot

warmDry

Wetand

andhot

warmDry

Wetand

andhot

warm2024-302030s2040s2024-302030s2040sSource:

World

Bank

MANAGE

simulations.

Note:

The

chart

shows

the

combined

average

annual

impacts

from

various

channels

(hydro,

crop

yields,

livestockyield,flooding,infrastructure,healthandlaborproductivity)onrealGDP,

debt/deficit(percentofGDP)andhouseholdconsumptionrelativeto

CGandREFbaselines.HotandWet

(SSP2–4.5)scenariosonlycontainflooding,whileHotandDry

SSP(3–7.0)

onlyincludedrought.12

|CountryClimateandDevelopmentReport:EthiopiaFigureES-2.Cumulativeeconomiclossesby

impactchannel100806040200Dry-Hotclimate100806040200Wet-warmclimateCGREFCGREFCGREFCGREFCGREFCGREF%of2022GDP%ofaverage%ofaverage%of2022GDP%ofaverage%ofaverage-20-20GDPin2030s

GDPin2040sHeatstressGDPin2030s

GDPin2040sCropyield

HeatstressCropyieldUrbanfloodingInlandfloodingUrbanfloodingInlandfloodingRoads&bridgesHydroRoads&bridgesHydroLivestockHealthLivestockHealthSource:

World

Bank

MANAGE

simulations.

Note:

The

chart

shows

the

loss

from

6

different

channels

of

climate

impact

relative

toCG

and

REF

baselines.

Thelosses

are

cumulatedbydecade

overthe

periods

2023-30,

2031-40,and

2041-50and

shown

as

percent

of

GDP

in

2022,

averageGDP

during

the

2030s,andaverageGDPduringthe2040sr