2023 年天然气过剩：全球天然气发电扩张继续阻碍能源转型（英）

Gas

Glut2023GLOBAL

GAS

POWER

EXPANSIONCONTINUES

TO

TH

WART

ENERGY

TRANSITIONGAS

GLUT

2023GlobalEnergyMonitorEDITING,

PRODUCTION,

AND

OTHER

CONTRIBUTIONSDesignandpagelayoutbyDavid

Van

Ness.Maps

andfigurescreatedbyScottZimmermanandNassosStylianou.EditingcontributionswereprovidedbyJulieJoly,

DavidHoffman,andStefaniCox.ABOUT

GLOBAL

ENERGY

MONITORGlobalEnergyMonitor(GEM)developsandsharesinformationinsupportoftheworldwidemovementforcleanenergy.

Bystudyingtheevolvinginternationalenergylandscapeandcreatingdatabases,reports,andinteractivetoolsthatenhanceunderstanding,GEMseekstobuildanopenguidetotheworld’s

energysys-tem.Followusat

andonTwitter@GlobalEnergyMon.ACKNOWLEDGMENTSTheauthorswouldliketothankalloftheresearcherswhocontributedtothedevelopmentofthisdatasettoenablethisreportandanalysis—GregorClark,AmaliaLlano,ChristineJuta,NorahElmagraby,

NagwaAbdallah,NataliaSidorovska-ya-Fretz,ZhanaiymKozybay,

ChengCheng

Wu,

XiaojunPeng,HarveyHassan,

WillLomer,

and

Warda

Ajaz.ABOUT

THE

GLOBAL

OIL

AND

GAS

PLANT

TRACKER(GOGPT)PERMISSIONS/COPYRIGHTCopyright©GlobalEnergyMonitor.

DistributedunderaCreativeCommonsAttribution4.0InternationalLicense.TheGlobalOilandGasPlant

Tracker

(GOGPT)isanonlinedatabasethatidentifiesandmapseveryknownoil-andgas-firedgeneratingunitandeverynewunitproposedsinceJanuary1,2020(20MW

andlargerintheEuropeanUnionandUnitedKingdom,50MW

orlargerelsewhere).DevelopedbyGlobalEnergyMonitor,

thetrackerusesfootnotedwikipagestodocumenteachplantandisupdatedbiannually.Forfurtherdetailsseethetrackerlanding

page

andmethodologyoverview.FURTHER

RESOURCESFor

additionaldataonproposedandexistingoilandgas

plants,seeSummary

Tables

ontheGEMwebsite.To

obtainprimarydatafromtheGOGPT,

visittheDownload

Data

page.ABOUT

THE

COVERThecoverimageisamapcreatedbyScottZimmermanofoperatingglobaloil-andgas-firedpowerplants.AUTHORSJenny

Martos(ProjectManagerGOGPT),

Warda

Ajaz(ProjectManagerAsiaGas

Tracker),

GregorClark(ProjectManagerPortalEnergéticoparaAméricaLatina),NorahElmagraby(researcher),HarveyHassan(researcher),ChristineJuta(ProjectManagerAfricaGas

Tracker),

andNataliaSidorovskaya-Fretz(researcher).GLOBAL

ENERGYMONITORREPORT

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2023

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2GlobalEnergyMonitorGasGlut2023GLOBAL

GASPOWER

EXPANSION

CONTINUES

TOTHWART

ENERGYTRANSITIONJenny

Martos,

Warda

Ajaz,Gregor

Clark,Norah

Elmagraby,

Harvey

Hassan,Christine

Juta,andNataliaSidorovskaya-FretzINTRODUCTIONOilandgashave

hadabigyear.

Oil-andgas-firedpowerplantsindevelopment—projectsthathave

beenannouncedorareinthepre-construction

andcon-structionphases—increased13%inthelastyear

to783gigawatts(GW),

mainlydrivenby

increasesincapacityofprojectsinthepre-constructionandconstructionphases.(Figure1)1emissionspotentialequivalenttomorethansixandhalfyears

oftheUnitedStates’emissions.2Drivenby

concernsoverenergysecurityandpromisesofadurabletransitionfuel

todecarbonizeeconomies,countriesaroundtheworldaredevelopingoilandgas,mostnotablyinAsiaandtheUnitedStates.Russia’swar

inUkrainehaschangedthecalculusforEuropeintermsofitsenergysupplychoices,whileinplaceswithextensiverenewablespotentialandcompara-tively

smallerfossilfuelssectorslikeAfricaandLatinIf

built,theseprojectswouldgrowtheglobaloilandgasfleetby

athirdatanestimatedcostofUS$611billionincapitalexpenditure,creatingalifetimeFigure

1.

Changes

in

oil

and

gas

capacity

in

development,

mid-2022

to

mid-2023.Globaloil&gaspowerpantcapacityindevelopmentingigawatts(GW),mid-2022to

mid-202320232022AnnouncedPre-constructionConstruction0GW100GW200GW300GWSource:GlobalOilandGasPlant

Tracker,

GlobalEnergyMonitor1.

GEMhistoricallyhastrackedgasanddualfuel(ie:gas/oil,gas/coal,gas/bioenergy)powerplantsintheGlobalGasPlant

Tracker(GGPT).IntheexpandedandrenamedGlobalOilandGasPlant

Tracker(GOGPT),GEMisnowincludingoil,dualfuel(withgasoroil),andgasfiredpowerplants.2.

Pre-constructionprojectsincludethosethatareactivelymovingforwardinseekinggovernmentalapprovals,landrights,orfinancing.GLOBAL

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2023AmericaandtheCaribbean,plansforoilandgasplantsaregainingafoothold.actualleakageratesrangefrom3.7%

to9%

orhigher.It’s

nosurprisethenthat150countries,representingnearlyhalfofglobalmethaneemissions,have

signedtheGlobal

Methane

Pledge,endorsingitsgoalofreducingmethaneemissions30%by

2030.But

ithasalsobeenabigyear

forextremeweatherevents.Duringthesecritical

momentswhenenergyhasbeenneededthemost,fossilfuel

generationhasattimesfailed.From

fatalpoweroutagesintheU.S.duringthewinterArcticblaststorisingtemperaturesacrosstheMiddleEastbuckling

gas

turbines,variableweatherpatternsbroughtonby

achangingclimatehave

upendednotionsoffossilfuel’s

reliability.Againstthisbackdrop,thecall

fromtheinternationalscientificcommunitytostopany

newconstructiononfossilfuel

infrastructureinordertolimitplanetarywarmingto1.5°Cbecomesmoreurgent.Expandingoilandgascapacityrepresentsacostlystranded

asset

risk

whilealsodivertingresourcesaway

fromtheenergytransition,whichby

someestimatescallsfortripling

installedrenewablepowercapacityby

2050.Coupledwiththerapidlydeclining

costofrenewablesandbatterystorage,aswell

astheincreasedvolatilityofgasprices,amoveaway

fromgastowardcleanenergyhasneverbeenmoreattractive.At

thesametime,gas’reputationasacleanertransi-tionfuelcontinuestounravel,asitssignificantcon-tributiontoclimatechangedue

tomethaneleakagesatextractionandtransportationbecomesbetterunderstood.By

someestimates,methane

leakage

aslowas0.2%putsgas’climateimpactonparwithcoal,andtheEXPANDINGTHE

GLOBAL

OIL

AND

GAS

PLANT

TRACKERInAugust2023,GlobalEnergyMonitor(GEM)releaseditsfirstdatasetforthenewlyrenamedandexpandedGlobalOilandGasPlant

Tracker(GOGPT).

Thisexpansionnowincludesoil-firedpowerplantsaswellasplantsthatuseinternalcombustion(IC)technology.Whilethisexpansionmarksadefinitivechangeintheinclusioncriteriaofthedatacollected,globaloil-firedpowergenerationgener-allyconsistsofolder

peakerplants.

Theexpandeddatareleaseincludes:118GWofoperatingoil-firedpowerplants■■■9.8GWofin-developmentoil-firedpowerplants36.9GWofoperatinginternalcombustionplants,3.7GWICindevelopmentWhilethelatestdatareleaseincludesoil-firedpowerplants,thereareonly7.5GWofexclusivelyoil-firedpowerplantsindevelopmentwiththeremaindergas-firedordualfuel(ie:gasandoil-fired).GLOBAL

ENERGYMONITORREPORT

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2023

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2023KEY

POINTS

FROM

THE

GLOBAL

OIL

AND

GAS

PLANT

TRACKER:Five

countries—China,Brazil,

Vietnam,Bangla-desh,andtheUnitedStates—constitute45%ofallnewglobalgas-firedcapacityindevelopment(Figure2),

andthetop20countriesmakeup

79%.lifetimeemissions,equivalenttomorethansixandhalfyears

oftheentireU.S.’

emissions.■Theboomofoilandgasplantsindevelopmentdwarfsthe12GWofgas-firedcapacitythatwasretiredinthelastyear.■■Approximately207GWisintheconstructionphase,a23%increasecomparedtolastyear,

and295GWisinthepre-constructionphase,a32%increase.■■Abouttwo-thirdsoftheworld’s

oilandgasplantcapacityin

development

islocatedinAsia.EastandSoutheastAsiaaredominatedby

planstoimportLNG

orexpanddomesticproduction,If

built,the783GWofgas

plantsindevelopmentwouldaddatotalof41,239milliontonnesCO

e2Figure

2.

In-development

oil

and

gas

capacity,

top

10

countries.Statusofoil&gaspowerplantcapacityindevelopmentinthe10countrieswithhighesttotals,ingigawatts(GW)ConstructionPre-constructionAnnounced400GW300GW200GW100GW0GWChinaBrazilVietnamBangladeshUnited

StatesPhilippinesIraqIranTaiwanNigeria020406080100Percentageofcapacityindevelopment(%)Source:GlobalOilandGasPlant

Tracker,

GlobalEnergyMonitorNote:Dataonlyincludesgas-firedgeneratingunits20MWandlargerfortheEuropeanUnionandUnitedKingdom,andunits50MWandlargerelsewhereglobally.GLOBAL

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2023while

Western

Asiaremainscommittedtogas-firedpowergenerationtomeetitsenergyneeds.(Figure3)Globally,

Chinaleadsinthedevelopmentofnewgas

capacity,

with21%oftheworld’s

totalgas-firedcapacityindevelopment(Figure2),

andthelargestincreasecomparedtolastyear.

(Figure4)■Almostthree-quartersoftheworld’s

oilandgasplantcapacityinconstructionislocatedinAsia,withathirdlocatedinEastAsia,mainlycon-centratedinChina.Southernand

Western

Asiatogetheraccountfornearly30%oftheworld’s

oilandgasplantcapacityinconstruction.■Despiteannouncedcleanenergygoals,theUnitedStatesleadstheglobeinexistingoil-andgas-firedcapacity,

with26%oftheworld’s

total,andstillgeneratesasignificantamountofitspowerfromfossilfuels.■Figure

3.

Where

are

oil

and

gas

plants

in

development?Figure

4.Topcountries

with

increases

in

planned

oil

and

gascapacity.Capacityofplannedoil&gasplantsbycontinentandregion,ingigawatts(GW)Changeinoil&gascapacityannounced,inpre-constructionandconstructionfrommid-2022tomid-2023,ingigawatts(GW)Eastern

Asia218

GWLatin

America

andtheCaribbean86

GWChinaIraq+71.3+16.3AmericasBrazil+15.9NorthernAmericaBangladeshPhilippinesTaiwan+12.945

GWSouth-eastern

AsiaSouthernAsia72

GW+11.8116

GWAsiaSub-SaharanAfrica48

GW+9Northern

Africa22

GWSaudi

Arabia+8.5AfricaSyria

+6.1Israel

+6Southern

Europe15

GWWestern

Asia94

GWWestern

Europe12

GWEuropeMalaysia

+4.8Oceania2

GW0GW20GW40GW60GW80GWCentral

Asia14

GWEastern

Europe

Northern

Europe26

GW

12

GWSource:GlobalOilandGasPlant

Tracker,

GlobalEnergyMonitorSource:GlobalOilandGasPlant

Tracker,

GlobalEnergyMonitorGLOBAL

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2023RELIABILITYUNCERTAINTY

OF

FOSSIL

FUEL

POWER

PLANTSDURING

EXTREMEWEATHERAstheeffectsofglobalheatingbecomemoreapparentthroughmorefrequentandextremeweatherevents,itiscrucialtohighlightthefalsenarrativeoffossilfuelreliabil-ity.

TheArcticblast

thathittheUnitedStateslastwinter,whichpromptedrollingblackoutsandkilleddozens,clearlydemonstrates

the

continued

performanceproblemsoffossilfuelpower,withmorethan100GWofcoal-andgas-firedgenerationthatfailedtostart

orwereforcedofflineacrossmultipleregionaltransmissionoperators.Infact,PJM’sreport

showsthatgasplantsaccountedformorethan70%ofunplannedoutagesduringthestorm,despiteextensivepreparations

inadvance.

Thiscomesafternewreliabilityrequirements

wereissuedafterWinterStormUriin2021,duringwhichgas-firedpowerplantsfailedto

operate

duetofreezingcomponentsandgassupplyissues,

resulting

inwidespreadpoweroutagesandmorethan200deaths.

TheNorth

AmericanElectricReliabilityCorporation’s

(NERC)latestStateofReliability

report,

whichhighlightscoalandgaspowergenerationsettinga

recordforoutagesin2022,statesthat“extremeweathereventscontinuetoposethegreatestrisktoreliabilityduetotheincreaseinfrequency,footprint,durationandseverity.”Duringtherecentheatwavein

Texas,solarandwind,whichprovided

35%ofthestate’s

power,com-binedwithbatterystorage,wascrucialto

ensuring

reliabilitywhennearly10GWofgasandcoalcapacitywentoffline.ArecentIEAcommentary

notedthattheperformanceofgas-firedpowerplants,whichaccountfor74%ofelectric-itygenerationintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MENA)region,canbenegativelyaffectedbywarmerairmassflowenteringthegasturbinecompressor.Morethan80%ofMENA’s

installedgas-firedcapacityfacesanannualadditionofmorethan20hotdaysinthe2081–2100periodduringalow-emissionsscenarioandover40hotdaysinahigh-emis-sionsscenario.Duringcritical

weatherevents,atatimewhengenerationisneededthemost,fossilfuelgenerationhasproven

tobeunreliable.Energysystemswillneedto

becomemoreclimateresilientastheworldexperiencestheimpacts

ofclimatechange.

Therefore,itisimperativethatweendourrelianceonfossilfuelsandpivot

toflexiblerenewableenergytoensuregridreliability.GLOBAL

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2023REGIONAL

BREAKDOWNAsiaAsia,particularlyEasternAsia,dominatestheplannedglobalgas-firedpowerplantbuildout.pushing

tobuildgas

storage.Buildingnewgasplants,orconvertingcoalplantstorunongas,

willonlyriskstrandedassetsandLNG

importdependencythatissubjecttovolatilepricesandglobalsupplyconstraintsinthefuture.HighLNG

priceshave

pushedsomedevelopingcountriesinAsia,includingBangladeshandPakistan,away

fromprocuringLNG

cargoes.Inothercases,inabidtoavoid

arepeatoftheLNG

pricecrisis,coun-triesareturning

toboostingdomesticgasproduc-tionandbuildingupLNG

infrastructureandstoragefacilities.Notably,

Japan

announced

itwillestablishaLNG

reservesystem,andinIndia,gasregulatorsareAccordingto

TransitionZero’s

Coal-to-Clean

PriceIndex

thelevelizedcostofelectricity(LCOE)

from3solarwithstorage,aswell

aswindwithstorage,isbelowthecostofgas-firedpowerinChina.Globally,Figure

5.

Oil-

and

gas-fired

power

plants

in

development,

Asia.Announced+Gas-firedPre-constructionConstructionDualfuelOil-firedOperating3.

Levelizedcostofenergy(LCOE)isdefinedbyTransitionZeroas“theaveragetotalcostsofbuildingandoperatingapowerplant,basedonperunitofelectricitygeneratedoveritsassumedlifetime.”TheLCOE

forgaspowerrepresentsthepricepermegawatthour($/MWh)atwhichprojectcostscanberecoveredandinvestorscanachieveaminimumrateofreturn—knownasthe“hurdlerate”—onthecapitalandlifetimeoperationalcostsoftheplant.

Thisincludesthefixedcostsofbuildingandmaintainingtheplantaswellastheshort-runmarginalcostofbuyingfuelandoperatingit.For

utility-scalesolaroronshorewindwithstorage,LCOE

istheprice($/MWh)neededtorecoverprojectcostsandattainarequiredhurdlerateoninvestment.

Themethodologyassumesabatterywithhalfthecapacityofthepairedrenewablesource,capableofdischargingforfourhours.For

example,a10megawatt(MW)solarsitewouldhave

a5MW

batteryholding20MWh.GLOBAL

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2023onaverage,

theLCOE

fromwindwithstorageandsolarwithstorageisbelowthecostofgas-firedpower.totheregion’s

existingcapacity.

SouthernAsiahas72GWofoil-andgas-firedcapacityindevelopment,atanestimatedcostofUS$59billion.If

built,thiswillincreasetheregion’s

existinggas-firedcapacity,141GW,

by

over50%.

Western

Asiahasapproximately94GWofoil-andgas-firedcapacityindevelopment,atanestimatedcapitalcostofUS$75billion.If

built,Western

Asia’s

existingoil-andgas-firedcapacitywillincreaseby

aboutathird.CentralAsiahasapproxi-mately15GWofoil-andgas-firedcapacityindevelop-ment,atanestimatedcapitalcostofUS$12billion.Ifbuilt,CentralAsia’s

existingoil-andgas-firedcapacitywillincreaseby

almosttwo-thirds.Themajorityoftheworld’s

81GWofgas

projectscancelledinthelastyear

arelocatedinAsia.However,whencomparedtothenetincreaseof91GWofproj-ectsindevelopmentayear

ago,

theglobalgas

expan-sionrateisincreasing.Asia,with514GW

atan

estimatedtotal

costofUS$385billion,hasnearly

two-thirds

oftheworld’s

oil-andgas-fired

capacity

indevelopment.

Themajorityoftheplanned

expansion

isinEastAsia.Overall,

thenearly218GW

inEastAsiarepresents

29%oftheglobal

in-de-velopment

capacity

and

42%ofin-development

capacityinAsia.If

built,

thiswillincrease

EastAsia’s

existinggas-fired

capacity,

300GW

asofmid-2023,by

over

72%.TheEastAsiaregion

ishometotheworld’s

three

biggestLNG

importers:

China,Japan,

and

South

Korea.EasternAsia4Theworld’s

gasexpansionisconcentratedinChina,withapproximately164GWindevelopment.Globally,Chinaleadsinthedevelopmentofnewgascapacity,with21%oftheworld’s

totalgas-firedcapacityindevelopment,morethanthenextleadingthreecoun-tries—Brazil,

Vietnam,andBangladesh—combined,andmorethanthecurrentoperatingcapacityofSaudiOtherregionsinAsiaalsohave

considerablegasexpansionplans.SoutheastAsiahas116GWofoil-andgas-firedcapacityindevelopment,atanestimatedcostofUS$98billionandatwofoldincreasecomparedFigure

6.

Oil-

and

gas-fired

power

plants

in

development,

Eastern

Asia.Announced+Gas-firedPre-constructionConstructionOperatingDualfuelOil-fired4.

Includes:China,HongKong,Japan,Macao,SouthKorea,TaiwanGLOBAL

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2023ArabiaandIrancombined.Aquarteroftheworld’s

gasexpansionintheconstructionphaseishappeninginChina.If

allprojectsindevelopmentarebuilt,China’sexistinggas-firedcapacitywillmorethandouble.capture,utilization,andstorageinAsia.Aspartofitseffortstoreducegreenhouseemissions,Japan

hassetagoalofincreasing

itsannualhydrogensupplybysixtimesfromthecurrentlevelto12milliontonsby2040.However,

mostofthehydrogen

currentlybeingusedinthecountryissourced

fromfossilfuels.Oil-andgas-firedpowergenerationaccounted

forjustover4%ofChina’s

electricitygenerationin2022andrepresentedonly5%ofthecountry’stotalpowercapacity.

Despitehavingcommitted

toreachpeakcarbonemissionsby

2030andtobe“carbon-neutral”by

2060,attherecentG20climatenegotiations,Chinarejected

callsforeconomy-widetargetstoreducetotalemissionsbyalmosthalfby

2030,aswell

asanagreementforglobalemissionstopeakby

2025.EvenasChinaramps

up

itsrenewablesbuildout,gas-firedcapacitycontinuestogrowatanalarmingrate,drivenby

increasingelectricitydemandandcoal-to-gasreplacements.Rystadforecasts

thatChina’s

installedgas-firedcapacitywillmorethantriplefrom2022levels,

to355GW,

by

2050.EastAsiahas36GWofcoal-to-gasconversionsorreplacementsindevelopment,representingapproxi-mately16%oftheregion’s

total.

Thesearemostlycon-centratedinSouthKoreaand

Taiwan.

OfSouthKorea’s20GWofgas-firedcapacityindevelopment,12.8arecoal-to-gasreplacements.SimilartoJapan,

SouthKoreahasnegligibledomesticgas

productionandisprimarilydependent

onLNGimports.Inits10th

Basic

Plan,theproposed2030and2036energymixscenariosshowLNG

accountingfornearly23%andover9%,respectively.

WhileSouthKoreahascommitted

tononewcoalplantsenteringintoconstructionandphasingoutcoalby

2050,thegovernmentisplanning

tomeettheenergydemandby

converting28agingcoalplantsintoLNG

plantsby

2036.Furthermore,thelatestGreen

TaxonomyclassifiesLNG

asa“‘green”

fuel.ArecentClimateAnalyticsreport

showsthatthereisnoroomfornewgas

capacity,

a1.5degreecompatiblegasphaseoutforSouthKorea

musthappenby

2034,andthereismorethanenoughpotentialrenewablescapacitytoreplacefossilfuels.Japan

hasthesecond-highestoperatinggas-firedcapacityintheregionandranksfourthintheworld,with107GW.

Inthe1970s,thecountrywasheavilyreliant

onoil-firedpowerplants.However,

ithassincediversifieditsfuel

sourcestoincludecoal,LNG,andnuclear,

bringingtheshareofoiltolessthan5%by2019.Currently,

gas

contributes

about24%tothetotalenergymixandmakesup

36%ofthepowergenerationmix.Japan

relies

almostentirelyonLNGimportsforitsgasneeds.DuetohighLNG

pricesin2022,Japan

announced

planstospeeduptherestart-ingofsevennuclearreactorsstartinginmid-2023.Italsoannounced

planstolaunchastrategic“LNGreservesystem”tosecuregas

forunexpectedsitua-tions.Currently,

Japan

hasonlyaround7GWofgaspowerplantsindevelopment.Despitetheabundantevidenceofeconomic,climate,andhealthrisksofgasdependency,

Japan

continuestopromote

LNGasatransitionfuel.

Therecentlyapproved“GreenTransformation”policyfinancesandencouragesLNG;

ammoniaco-firing;fossilhydrogen;andcarbonTaiwan

planstocontinue

itsrelianceonLNG

asitpiv-otsfromcoaltogasandphases

out

nuclearpower.

Ofthenearly25GWofin-developmentgas-firedcapacityin

Taiwan,

morethanhalfarecoal-to-gasreplace-mentsinthepre-constructionorconstructionstage.UndertheRenewable

Energy

Development

Act,

Tai-wan

hassetagoaltoincreasegas-firedgenerationto50%andrenewablepowerto20%by

2025.

Thetargetalsocallsforcoal-firedgenerationtofalltoabout30%fromthecurrent47%level.GLOBAL

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2023SoutheastAsia5December2022,

Vietnamannounced

aUS$15.5billionJETPagreement,whichwillaidinitstransitionfromcoalbutleaves

roomforgas-firedexpansion,includ-ingthecountry’sfirstLNG-firedpowerplant—NhonTrach3,whichiscurrentlyinconstruction.Globally,

Vietnamranksthirdforin-developmentgas-firedcapacitywithnearly44GWofprojectsintheannouncedorpre-constructionstage,representingmorethanafivefoldincreaseoverexistingcapacity.Vietnam’s

gassectordevelopmentislargelydrivenby

itsbidtoovercomethelongstandingpowercrisiswhilealsoturningaway

fromcoal-firedpowergen-eration.

Thecountry’sUS$135billionPower

Devel-opmentPlan(PDP),

approvedinMay

2023,aimstoincrease

gas-firedpowergenerationfrom9.3%in2022toaround25%by

2030by

adding15%LNG-fuelledpower.Theplanalsocallsforadecreaseincoal-firedpowergenerationfrom33%in2022to20%by

2030.InAsdomesticgassupplyruns

dry,thePhilippinesplanstoturntoLNGimports

withover28GWofmostlyLNG-firedpowerplantsindevelopment,amorethansixfoldincreaseoverexistingcapacity.Thelong-termeconomicsustainabilityofLNG-fueledpowerisalreadyfacing

obstaclesastwopowersupplyagree-mentsarebeingrenegotiateddue

tohigh

costs.

TherevisedpowersupplyagreementswilllikelypasstheFigure

7.

Oil-

and

gas-fired

power

plants

in

development,

Southeast

Asia.Announced+Gas-firedPre-constructionConstructionDualfuelOil-firedOperating5.

Includes:Brunei,Cambodia,Indonesia,Malaysia,Myanmar,

Philippines,Singapore,Thailand,

Timor-Leste,

VietnamGLOBAL

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2023highfuelcostsontoconsumers,who

arealreadypay-ingsomeofthehighesttariffsinAsia.itsintentiontoramp

up

domesticgas

productionatitsErawan

field.InNovember2022,itwasannounced

thatIndonesiawouldreceiveUS$20billioninJETPfundingtoaidthecountryinajusttransitionfromcoaltorenewables.Despitehigh

infrastructurecosts,theIndonesiangov-ernmentisseeking

touseJETPfundingtoconvert

upto55ofitsdiesel-firedpowerplantsintogas

plants.SouthernAsia6Iranleadstheregionwith72GWofoperationalgas

andoil-firedpowercapacityandrankssecondintermsoftheplannedgas

expansionwithnearly26GWindevelopment.

Theshare

ofgasinthecoun-try’s

powergenerationmixisabout71%;justoverone-quarterofthecountry’selectricityisproducedfromoil.Iranhascontinuedtoinvest

infossilgenera-tionbyupgrading

itsolderunitsintocombinedcycleplantsandbuildingnewcombinedcycleunits.Thailand,whichhasnearly13GWofgas-firedcapac-ityindevelopmentandgeneratesalmost65%ofitselectricityfromgas

andoil,hasbeenincreasing

LNGimportstomeetdemand.Inapushtoavoidapoten-tialsurgeinLNG

prices,

ThailandrecentlyannouncedFigure

8.

Oil

and

gas-fired

power

plants

in

development,

Southern

Asia.Announced+Gas-firedPre-constructionConstructionDualfuelOil-firedOperating6.

IncludesAfghanistan,Bangladesh,India,Iran,Pakistan,SriLankaGLOBAL

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2023Bangladeshranksfirstintheregionintermsofgasexpansion,withapproximately41GWindevelopment,morethandoubleitscurrentoperatingcapacity.Currently,

gasaccounts

for55%ofelectricitypro-ductioninBangladesh,withaboutaquarter

ofthegasimported.But

themajorityoftheplannedgasbuildoutwillrely

onimportedLNG,

asthecountry’sgasreservesaredrying

up.

Theplan