2023年能源效率国际能源署（英）

EnergyEfficiency

2023

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

TheIEAexaminesthe

fullspectrum

ofenergyissues

includingoil,gasand

coalsupplyand

demand,renewable

energytechnologies,

electricitymarkets,

energyefficiency,

accesstoenergy,

demandside

managementand

muchmore.Through

itswork,theIEA

advocatespoliciesthat

willenhancethe

reliability,affordability

andsustainabilityof

energyinits

31membercountries,

associationcountriesandbeyond.

Thispublicationandany

mapincludedhereinare

withoutprejudicetothe

statusoforsovereigntyover

anyterritory,tothe

delimitationofinternational

frontiersandboundariesand

tothenameofanyterritory,

cityorarea.

IEAmember IEAassociation

countries: countries:

Australia Argentina

Austria Brazil

Belgium China

Canada Egypt

CzechRepublic India

Denmark Indonesia

Estonia Kenya

Finland Morocco

France Senegal

Germany Singapore

Greece SouthAfrica

Hungary Thailand

Ireland Ukraine

Italy

Japan

Korea

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Mexico

Netherlands

NewZealand

Norway

Poland

Portugal

SlovakRepublic

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

RepublicofTürkiye

UnitedKingdom

UnitedStates

TheEuropean

Commissionalso

participatesinthe

workoftheIEA

Source:IEA.

InternationalEnergyAgency

Website:

EnergyEfficiency2023 Abstract

Abstract

EnergyEfficiency2023istheIEA’sprimaryannualanalysisonglobaldevelopmentsinenergyefficiencymarketsandpolicy.Itexploresrecenttrendsinenergyintensity,demandandefficiency-relatedinvestment,policyandtechnology.Thistentheditionofthemarketreportalsofeaturesanewspotlightsection,focusedonkeyissuesfacingpolicymakersthisyear.Inparticular,thereportdetailswhatisentailedwiththeproposedglobaltargettodoubleenergyefficiencyprogressandwhatwillbegainedbyachievingit.

Thisyear’sreportcomesamidsttheongoingeffectsoftheenergyandclimatecrisesinwhatisexpectedtobethehottestyearonrecord.Inthiscontext,2023globalenergyefficiencyprogress,asmeasuredbyprimaryenergyintensity,isexpectedtobeslightlybelowthelong-termtrendinaslowdownfrom2022.However,thereportmakesclearthataprofoundtransformationisunderwayinenergyefficiencyandcleanenergymorebroadly,withmanygovernmentsintroducingnew,orstrengtheningexisting,policiesandenergy-savingprogrammes.Thesepoliciesareleadingtofasterdeploymentofefficienttechnologiesandarecontributingtowardsanexpectedpeakingoffossilfueldemandinthecomingyears.

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IEA.CCBY4.0.

EnergyEfficiency2023 Acknowledgements

Acknowledgements

EnergyEfficiency2023waspreparedbytheEnergyEfficiencyandInclusiveTransitionsOffice(EEIT)intheDirectorateofEnergyMarketsandSecurity(EMS)andincollaborationwithotherdirectoratesoftheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA).

ThereportwasdesignedanddirectedbyNicholasHowarth,EnergyAnalyst(EEIT).OtherleadauthorswereLucasBoehlé,FedericoCallioni,HadrienLoyant,JackMillerandFabianVoswinkel.DianeMunroeditedthereport.

Principalauthors(inalphabeticalorder)were:ClaraCamarasa(cooling),ConorGask(Chinaandsectoranalysis),PaulineHenriot(systemsefficiency),KristinaKlimovich(PACEandbehaviour),NatalieKauf(SoutheastAsia,systemsefficiency),SimratKaur(India),SilviaLaera(systemsefficiency),EmmaMooney(behaviour,industryandEEOs),AlisonPridmore(transport),SungjinOh(governmentspendingandpolicyupdates),JoshOxby(employment),KseniaPetrichenko(buildingsandsystemsefficiency),CorneliaSchenk(investment,India),andBrendanReidenbach(investmentindigital).FurthersupportandinputwereprovidedbyJulietteDenis-SenezJappe,CarolineFedrine,LisaMarieGrenier,AndikaHermawan,YujunHuangandOrestisKarampinis.MitsidiProjetosandIanHamiltonalsoprovidedmuchvaluedanalyticalsupport.

Leadauthorsforspecialspotlightsectionswereasfollows:LucasBoehléandFedericoCallioni(energyintensityprogress);HadrienLoyant,JackMillerandFabianVoswinkel(doublingefficiencyprogress);ClaraCamarasa,ArnauRisquezMartinandFabianVoswinkel(coolinginthehottestyearonrecord);PaulineHenriot,SilviaLaera,NatalieKaufandArnauRisquezMartin(benefitsofsystemsefficiency);LucasBoehlé,IanHamilton,HadrienLoyantandKseniaPetrichenko(gasandresidentialheating);SimratKaur,CorneliaSchenk,andArnauRisquezMartin(coolinginIndia).

BrianMotherway,HeadofEEITprovidedoverallstrategicdirectiontothereport,alongwithVidaRozite,EnergyAnalyst.MelanieSlade,SeniorProgrammeManager,alsogaveexpertadviceandmanagementsupporttothereport.

KeisukeSadamori,DirectorofEnergyMarketsandSecurity(EMS)providedimportantexpertguidanceandadvice.Valuablecomments,feedbackandguidancewereprovidedbyotherseniormanagerswithintheIEAandinparticular,TorilBosoni,LauraCozzi,DanDorner,PaoloFrankl,TimGould,TimurGül,DennisHesselingandNickJohnstone.

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IEA.CCBY4.0.

EnergyEfficiency2023 Acknowledgements

Thisyear’smarketreportbenefitedfromaspecialanalysisconductedbyEMScolleaguesJoelCouseandLouisChambeaudrawingonfuelreportsfromacrossthedirectorate.ParticularthanksgotoCarlosFernandezAlvarez,HeymiBahar,ErenCam,PabloHevia-Koch,GergelyMolnar,andaswellasDavideD’Ambrosio,CiaránHealy,JulianKeutz,ArneLilienkampandDavidMartin.

DataandanalysisfromtheIEAEnergyDataCentrewasfundamentaltothereport,particularlyfromRobertaQuadrelli,AlexandreBizeul,PedroCarvalho,ThomasElghozi,JuhaKöykkä,DomenicoLattanzio,ArnauRisquezMartinandPouyaTaghavi-Moharamli.

AnalysisandinputfromtheIEAWorldEnergyOutlook,TrackingCleanEnergyProgress,WorldEnergyInvestment,EnergyEfficiencyHub,EnergyTechnologyPerspectivesandSustainableRecoveryTrackerteamswasessentialtothiswork.ParticularthanksgotoBlandineBarreau,ElizabethConnelly,DanielCrow,ChiaraDelmastro,TanguyDeBienassis,AraceliFernandezPales,MathildeHuismans,MartinKueppers,ShaneMcDonagh,YannickMonschauer,RafaelMartinezGordon,ApostolosPetropoulos,ArthurRoge,JonathanSinton,LeonieStaas,TiffanyVass,AnthonyVautrinandDanielWetzel.

ThereportwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthesupportofJethroMullen,ActingHeadoftheCommunicationsandDigitalOffice(CDO),andhisteamwhowereresponsibleforproductionandlaunchsupport,especiallyPoeliBojorquez,CurtisBrainard,AstridDumond,ZacharyEgan,ThereseWalshandWonJikYang.

ThereportwasmadepossiblebyassistancefromtheMinistryofEconomy,TradeandIndustry,Japan.TheItalianMinistryofEnvironmentandEnergySecurityisalsogratefullyacknowledgedfortheirsupportthroughtheircontributionstotheIEA’sDigitalDemandDrivenElectricityNetworks(3DEN)initiative.

Peerreviewers

Manyseniorgovernmentofficialsandinternationalexpertsprovidedinputandreviewedpreliminarydraftsofthereport.Theirsuggestionswereofgreatvalue.Theyinclude:

AlfaLaval MadeleineGilborne

AllianceforanEnergyEfficientEconomy SatishKumar

(AEEE)

AmericanCouncilforanEnergy-Efficient SteveNadel

Economy

AppliedEnergy NickMeeten

ASEAN RikaSafrina

AsianDevelopmentBank DavidMorgado

Asia-PacificESCOIndustryAlliance AlexAblaza

AustralianAllianceforEnergy JarrodLeak

Productivity(A2EP)

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IEA.CCBY4.0.

EnergyEfficiency2023 Acknowledgements

ChinaNationalInstituteof PengchengLi

Standardisation

CLASP MattMalinowski

ChristineEgan

ClimateStrategy&Partners PeterSweatman

Danfoss SaraVadSørensen

EcoHomes WinifredAtanga

Economic&HumanDimensions SkipLaitner

ResearchAssociates

EnelX VitoriaDelicadoMontoya

EmanuelaSartori

EnergyEfficiency&Conservation BrianFitzgerald

Authority,NewZealand

EnergyEfficiencyCouncil,Australia JeremySung

EnergyEfficiencyMovement,ABB MikeUmiker

EnergyinDemand RodJanssen

EnergyPro StevenFawkes

Engie FlorenceDufour

EuropeanHeatPumpAssociation ThomasNowak

EuropeanTransportandEnergy PierpaoloCazzola

ResearchCentreofITS,UCDavis

FraunhoferInstituteforSystemsand WolfgangEichhammer

Innovation

GhanaEnergyCommission AdolfNiiAshong

GIZ LilianaCampos

GovernmentofAustria ThomasDeuts

GovernmentofNorway TomAndreasMathiasson

GovernmentofSpain MarBlazquez

GovernmentofTürkiye BarışSanlı

IDAE,Spain MarisaOlano

Independentconsultants PaduS.Padmanabhan

JacobTeter

KevinLane

InstituteofEnergyEconomics,Japan KoichiSasaki

METI,Japan HarutoShinoda

MinistryofEconomicAffairs&Climate JosephineRis

Policy,TheNetherlands JeltedeJong

MinistryofEconomicAffairsand TimoRitonummi

Employment,Finland

Mitsui&Co.GlobalStrategicStudies TakashiHongo

Institute

NaturalResourcesCanada OfficeofEnergyEfficiency

Openexp YaminaSaheb

OregonDepartmentofEnergy EdithBayer

RegulatoryAssistanceProject JanRosenow

RéseaudeTransportd’Électricité(RTE),BiankaShoai-TehraniFrance

RMITUniversity AlanPears

RockyMountainInstitute AmoryLovins

SchneiderElectric VincentMinier

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IEA.CCBY4.0.

EnergyEfficiency2023 Acknowledgements

Signify HarryVerhaar

SwedishEnergyAgency CarlosLopez

TheInstituteofEnergyEconomics NaokoDoi

UKDepartmentforEnergySecurity& DanielWeaver

NetZero

UNIDOYouthAdvisor MelissaTomassini

UniversityCollegeLondonEnergy DavidShipworth

Institute

UniversityCollegeofLondon LynnetteDray

UNOPS JohnRobertCotton

WorldBank AshokSarkar

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IEA.CCBY4.0.

EnergyEfficiency2023 Tableofcontents

Tableofcontents

Executivesummary

9

Chapter1.Energyefficiencyanddemandtrends

16

Energyintensityanddemand

16

Energypricesandaffordability

29

Chapter2.Sectortrendsinenergyefficiency

35

Overview

35

Transport

37

Industry

45

Buildings

51

Electrificationandsystemlevelefficiency

56

Chapter3.Financeandemployment

62

Efficiencyinvestmenttrends

62

Propertyassessedcleanenergyfinancing

70

Energyefficiencyemployment

72

Chapter4.Energyefficiencypolicyprogressupdates

75

Internationaldevelopments

75

Nationalandregionaldevelopments

76

Regulationsandstandards

82

Behaviourchange

85

Energyefficiencyobligationschemes

88

Chapter5.Keyissuesforgovernments

90

Whyisenergyintensityprogresslowerin2023despitesignificantpolicyaction?

90

Whatdoesdoublingglobalprogressonenergyefficiencyentail?

96

Howdoesthehottestyearonrecorddriveurgencyforefficiencymeasures?

102

Howareconsumersbenefitingfromsystemefficiency?

107

Hastheenergycrisisacceleratedtheshiftawayfromgasinresidentialspaceheating?.113

CanefficientcoolinghelpmanagefastrisingelectricitydemandinIndiaandachieve

thermalcomfortforall?

119

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IEA.CCBY4.0.

Executivesummary

Efficiencypolicymomentumbuilds,butglobalenergyintensityprogressslows

Energyefficiencyiscurrentlyseeingastrongglobalfocusamongpolicymakersinrecognitionofitsimportantroleinenhancingenergysecurityandaffordability,andinacceleratingcleanenergytransitions.Thiscomes,however,astheestimated2023rateofprogressinenergyintensity–themainmetricusedfortheenergyefficiencyoftheglobaleconomy–issettofallbacktobelowlonger-termtrends,to1.3%fromastronger2%lastyear.Thelowerenergyintensityimprovementratelargelyreflectsanincreaseinenergydemandof1.7%in2023,comparedwith1.3%ayearago.

Annualprimaryenergyintensityimprovement,2001-2022,2023E,andbyscenario,2022-2030

Primaryenergyintensityimprovement

5%

x2improvement

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

2001-102011-20

2021

2022

2023E

2022-30

2022-30

2022-30

STEPS

APS

NZE

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Note:STEPS=StatedPoliciesScenario;APS=AnnouncedPledgesScenario;andNZE=NetZeroEmissionsby2050Scenario.

Atthesame,thisyear’sslowerprogressinglobalenergyintensitymasksexceptionalgainsinsomecountriesandregions,wherestrongpolicyaction,increasedinvestmentsandconsumerbehaviourchangesledtosharpimprovementswellabovetheaverageglobalrate.ThisyeartheEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedStates,amongmanyotherssincethebeginningoftheenergycrisis,includingKorea,TürkiyeandtheUnitedKingdom,haveregisteredrobustimprovementsrangingfrom4%to14%.

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IEA.CCBY4.0.

In2023,globalmomentumtotargetadoublingintherateofefficiencyprogressto4%gatheredpace,whichcouldcuttoday’senergybillsinadvancedcountriesbyone-thirdandmakeup50%ofCO2reductionsby2030.InJune,46governmentsparticipatingintheIEA’s8thAnnualGlobalConferenceonEnergyEfficiencyendorsedthe‘VersaillesStatement:Thecrucialdecadeforenergyefficiency’,agreeingtostrengthenenergyefficiencyactionsinlinewithadoublingofglobalenergyintensityprogresseachyearthisdecadeto2030.

Policyactionistranslatingintoinvestmentanddeployment

Theenergycrisishasunambiguouslyacceleratedtheenergytransition,withenergyefficiencypolicyactionacentralplankofgovernmentinitiatives.

Sincethestartoftheenergycrisisinearly2022therehasbeenamajorescalationinaction,withcountriesrepresenting70%ofglobalenergydemandintroducingorsignificantlystrengtheningefficiencypolicypackages.Annualenergyefficiencyinvestmentisup45%since2020,withparticularlystronggrowthinelectricvehiclesandheatpumps.Almostoneineveryfivecarssoldtodayisanelectricvehicleandgrowthinglobalheatpumpsalesisnowoutpacinggasboilersinmanymarkets.

Globalenergyusecoverageofminimumperformancestandardsformajorenduses,2000-2023

Energyconsumptioncovered(%)

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

2000

2010

2023E

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Note:Coverageforspacecooling,spaceheating,waterheating,refrigerationandlightingisshownforresidentialsectors.

Sources:IEAanalysisbasedontheIEAPoliciesandmeasures(PAMS)database,CLASPPolicyResourceCenter.

AccordingtotheIEA’sGovernmentEnergySpendingTracker,since2020almostUSD700billionhasbeenspentonenergyefficiencyinvestmentsupport,with70%ofthisinjustfivecountries:theUnitedStates,Italy,Germany,NorwayandFrance.

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IEA.CCBY4.0.

TheInflationReductionActof2022intheUnitedStatesincludesUSD86billionforenergyefficiencyactions,whiletheEuropeanUnionhasstrengtheneditsEnergyEfficiencyDirectivetocurbenergydemand.

However,theimpactofnewgovernmentpolicies,regulationsandenergysavingprogrammes,coupledwithanunprecedentedlevelofinvestmentstoscaleupmoreefficienttechnologies,arenotalwaysimmediate,withefficiencygainsandenergyintensityprogressrealisedoveraperiodofyears.Moreover,thisyear’soverallglobalintensityprogressmasksmoresignificantgainsinsomecountriesandregionsasotherssawmuchlowerprogress.

Afteranenergyintensityimprovementof8%intheEuropeanUnionin2022,anotherexceptionallyhighyearisexpectedin2023,witha5%gaininprogress.TheUnitedStatesisalsoontracktoposta4%improvementin2023.

Astrongpost-pandemicresurgenceinChina’seconomicgrowthofaround5%isforecastin2023,alongwithasimilarreboundinenergydemand.Thesepreliminaryestimatesfor2023suggestthattheoveralllevelofenergyintensityinChinaisnotexpectedtochangethisyear.Ittakes40%moreenergytofuelGDPinChinathanintheUnitedStates,andalmostdoubletheenergytofuelthesamegrowthasintheEuropeanUnion.Thisshiftinthebalanceofeconomicactivity,alongwithaslowingofthecountry’senergyintensityimprovementalongwiththatofsomeotherregionsthisyear,helpsexplaintheslowdowninglobalenergyintensityprogressin2023.

Thedeploymentofefficienttechnologiesiscurbingenergydemandandheraldingthepeakingoffossilfuels

Inthefirsthalfof2023,heatpumpsaleswereup75%,comparedtothesameperiodayearago,inGermany,theNetherlandsandSwedencombined.Anelectricvehicleorheatpumpnotonlyshiftsenergyusetoelectricitythatisincreasinglycomingfromcleanenergysourcesbutalsousesmuchlessfinalenergythanaconventionalcarorgasboilertodothesamejob.Consumersnowhavebetterchoiceswhenrenovatingtheirhomesorbuyinganewvehicle.Thesechoicesarestartingtoopenupopportunitiesfornewlevelsofenergyefficiency.

Forexample,globalsalesofgasolineanddieselcars,two-andthree-wheelers,andtruckspeakedin2017,2018and2019,respectively.Thismeansglobalgasolinedemand–whichismainlyusedbypassengercars–isexpectedtopeakandstabilisein2023ataround27mb/d.Atthecountrylevel,93outof146countriesrepresenting60%oftotalgasolineconsumptionhaveseendemandalreadypeak,plateauordecline.Thispatternisexpectedtoculminateinroadtransportasawhole,whichincludesdiesel-fuelledvehicles,suchastrucksandbuses,peakingataround45mb/din2025.

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IEA.CCBY4.0.

Peakingofresidentialgasandgasolinedemands

Numberofcountries

Residentialgasdemand(2007-2021)

Gasolinedemand(2007-2023)

50

100%100

100%

40

80%

80

80%

30

60%

60

60%

20

40%

40

40%

10

20%

20

20%

0

0%

0

0%

Declineorplateau

Increasingdemand

DeclineorplateauIncreasingdemand

indemand

indemand

Numberofcountries(leftaxis)

Shareoftotaldemandin%(rightaxis)

Shareoftotaldemand

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Sources:IEA(2023),WorldEnergyBalances,accessedOctober2023;IEA(2023),Oil2023:AnalysisandForecastto2028.

Lookingatthemajorheatingcountriesaroundtheworld,residentialgasdemandhasalreadypeaked,plateaued,orisdecliningin34outofatotalof78countriesrepresentinghalfofalldemand.InEurope,residentialandcommercialgasdemanddroppedmorethan15%in2022comparedtotheyearbefore,undergreatpressureasaresultofhigherpricesfollowingRussia’sinvasionofUkraine.While40%ofthisdeclinecanbeattributedtotherelativelymildwinterlastyear,morethanhalfwasthroughvariousgas-savingmeasures,althoughthisincludesdemanddestructionaswellasefficiencygains.

Thisshifttoelectrificationoftransportandheatingcomesatthesametimeasrenewableenergyistakingonarapidlyincreasingshareofelectricityproduction.Thisisseeingtheroleofenergyefficiencyevolvingfromaconsiderationofend-usealonetoaconvergenceofoveralluse,demandflexibility,andoptimiseduseofvariablerenewableresources.Inelectricitysystemswithhigherlevelsofvariablerenewablepenetration,earlyevidencesuggeststhatsuchsystemsthinkingcandeliverenergybillsavingsofuptoathird.

Theworldisseeingrecordhottemperatures,boostingtheneedforcoolingandloweringtheneedforheating

In2023theworldalsoexperienceditshottestyearonrecord,threateningtotriggeraviciouscycleofbothhigherelectricityuseandcarbonemissions.Heatwavescanalsoworsenhealthdisparities,reduceproductivity,raiseelectricitycosts,disruptessentialservices,anddrivemigration.Extremeheatputsstrainson

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IEA.CCBY4.0.

electricitysystems,requiringsubstantialinvestmentsingridinfrastructureandpowergenerationwhileburdeningconsumerswithhighcoolingcosts,especiallyforthemostvulnerable.

Datashowsextremeheatdrivesincreaseddemandforairconditioners,withsustainedaveragedailytemperaturesof30°Cboostingweeklysalesby16%inChina,forexample.DuringtheMaytoSeptemberglobalheatwavethisyear,peoplewerelookingonlineforairconditionersmorethanever,withthesearchterm'srelativepopularityonGoogleupmorethan30%worldwidecomparedwiththehistoricalaveragelevelofsearchesforthosemonths.

Highertemperaturesalsohavedifferentimpactsonelectricitydemandonaregionalbasis.Forexample,IEAanalysisshowsthatevery1°Cincreaseintheaveragedailytemperatureabove24°Cdrivesariseofabout4%inelectricitydemandinTexas,whileinIndia,whereairconditionerownershipislower,thesametemperatureincreasedrivesa2%rise.

BetweenMayandSeptemberin2023,powergridshitrecordlevelsofpeakdemandinmanyofthelargestcountriesintheworld,includingChina,theUnitedStates,India,Brazil,Canada,Thailand,MalaysiaandColombia–togetheraccountingformorethan60%oftotalglobalelectricitydemand.Insomeregions,suchasintheMiddleEastandpartsoftheUnitedStates,spacecoolingcanrepresentmorethan70%ofpeakresidentialdemandonhotdays.

Amilderwinter,thesecondwarmestonrecordinEurope,alsocontributedtoreducedenergydemand,helpingimprovethisyear’senergyintensityresultsinEuropeandtheUnitedStates.

Doublingefficiencyprogresscouldcutenergybillsbyone-thirdandmakeup50%ofCO2reductionsby2030

Asmomentumbuildsaroundtheglobaltargettodoubleefficiencyprogressfromthe2022levelof2%to4%eachyearuntil2030,internationalefforts,includingthoseatCOP28,haveamajorroletoplayinshapingfutureenergyefficiencyanddemandpathways.

Whiledoublingtherateofglobalenergyintensityprogressisachallengingtarget,itisnotanunprecedentedlevelofprogress.Inthepasttenyears,90%ofcountrieshaveachievedthe4%rateatleastonce,andhalfhavedonesoatleastthreetimes.However,onlyfourG20countries–China,France,theUnitedKingdomandIndonesia–havedonesooveracontinuous5-yearperiodwithinthelastdecade,thoughseveralothershavecomeclose.

Inmostsectors,governmentscanmakerapidprogresstowardsdoublingbybuildinguponbestpracticeinexistingpoliciesandacceleratingthedeploymentofalready-availabletechnologies.Forexample,lightingstandardsintheEuropean

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IEA.CCBY4.0.

Union,India,Japan,SouthAfricaandtheUnitedKingdomarealreadyatorexceedthelevelsetoutintheNZEScenario.Similarly,allindustrialelectricmotorswithinacertainoutputrangesoldintheEuropeanUnion,Japan,Switzerland,TürkiyeandtheUnitedKingdommustadheretotheefficiencyclassseenintheNZEScenario.Similarcasescanbefoundforbuildingregulations,andvehiclestandardsimprovementssettocomeintoforceby2030.

Proportionofcountriestosurpassa4%annualenergyintensityimprovementoneormoretimesbetween2012and2021

Proportionofcountries

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Atleastonce

Atleasttwice

Atleastthreetimes

Atleastfourtimes

Atleastfivetimes

in10years

in10years

in10years

in10years

in10years

Note:150countries.

Sources:IEA(2023),Aglobaltargettodoubleefficiencyprogressisessentialtokeepnetzeroonthetable,

Comparedtoahigherenergydemandscenariowitharound2%annualenergyintensityprogresseachyearthisdecade,doublingto4%peryearwouldreduceCO2emissionsby7GtCO2–or20%ofcurrenttotalemissions,takingtheshareofenergyefficiencyandrelatedmeasurestohalfofallemissionsreductionsthisdecade.Itwouldalsocuttoday’senergybillsinadvancedeconomiesbyaroundone-third.Achievingthedoublingtargetwouldalsosee4.5millionmorejobsthantodayinenergyefficiencyacrossthemanufacturing,buildingrenovation,construction,industryandtransportsectors.

Thesebenefitsonlyhighlightthatnowisnotthetimetopauseonenergyefficiencyactionbutthetimetofurtherexploitefficiency’spotentialtoaddressthemultipleintersectingcrisesofenergy,climateandcostofliving.

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IEA.CCBY4.0.

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IEA.CCBY4.0.

EnergyEfficiency2023 Chapter1.Energyefficiencyanddemandtrends

Chapter1.Energyefficiencyanddemandtrends

Energyintensityanddemand

Efficiencypolicyactionsrapidlyincrease,butglobalenergyintensityprogressslowsamidmyriadfactors

In2023,focushasremainedsteadfastontheimportanceofenergyefficiencyforacceleratingcleanenergytransitions,reducingenergycosts,andenhancingenergysecurity.However,globalenergyintensityprogress–orthereductioninenergyintensityoftheglobaleconomy–isexpectedtoslow,afteracceleratingbyabout2%in2022,andfallingtoslowerlevelsofaround1.3%in2023.EnergyintensityisdefinedastheamountofprimaryenergyusedtoproduceagivenamountofeconomicoutputorGDP,andisthemainglobalindicatortotrackprogressofenergyefficiency.

Annualprimaryenergyintensityimprovement,2001-2022,2023E,andbyscenario,2022-2030

Primaryenergyintensityimprovement

5%

x2improvement

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

2001-102011-20

2021

2022

2023E

2022-30

2022-30

2022-30

STEPS

APS

NZE

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Notes:STEPS=StatedPoliciesScenario;APS=AnnouncedPledgesScenario;andNZE=NetZeroEmissionsby2050Scenario.Asanindicativerange,aGDPgrowthof3%withcurrentlyexpectedenergydemandgrowthofbetween2%and1%wouldyieldenergyintensityimprovementofbetween1%and2%,respectively.

Despitethisyear’sslowerglobalprogress,itisimportanttorecognisethattheenergycrisishasunequivocallyacceleratedtheenergytransitionandefficiencygainsinmanymarkets.Theimpactofnewpoliciesandtechnologiesarenot

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IEA.CCBY4.0.

EnergyEfficiency2023 Chapter1.Energyefficiencyanddemandtrends

alwaysimmediate,withefficiencygainsandenergyintensityprogressrealisedoveraperiodyears.ThisisespeciallytrueinEurope,aswellasothercountriesandregions,wheregovernmentshaverecentlyintroducedsweepingnewpolicies,regulationsandincentivestocurbenergydemandwhileconsumersandbusinessescontinuetoimplementenergysavingmeasuresinresponsetosharplyhighercosts.

Whiletheenergycrisishascausedsignificanthardshipforhouseholdsandeconomiclossforbusinesses–especiallythosedependentonnatural