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ofMacroeconomics(宏观经济学-加州大学-詹姆斯·布2024/3/28ofMacroeconomics(宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布QuestionsWhatmightthefutureofmacroeconomicsbring?Howmightthemacroeconomicstaughttwodecadesfromnowbedifferentfromthemacroeconomicstaughttoday?Whathavebeentheprincipalchangesinthewaymacroeconomicsistaughtoverthepasttwentyyears?ofMacroeconomics(宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布QuestionsWhatadditionalchangestookplacetwentyyearsbeforethat--fromroughly1960toroughly1980?Whatdirectionwillmacroeconomicstakeiftherealbusinesscycleresearchprogramissuccessful?WhatdirectionwillmacroeconomicstakeifthenewKeynesianresearchprogramprovessuccessful?ofMacroeconomics(宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布QuestionsHowwilleconomistsunderstandthefoundationsbehindthepowerofmonetarypolicy?ofMacroeconomics(宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布ThePastofMacroeconomicsA1936bookbyJohnMaynardKeynesshiftedeconomicresearchandmacroeconomicthoughtintonewanddifferentdirectionstheroleofexpectationsoffutureprofitsindetermininginvestmentthevolatilityofexpectationsofprofitsthepowerofthegovernmenttoaffecttheeconomythroughpolicythemultiplierprocessofMacroeconomics(宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布ThePastofMacroeconomicsAfterWorldWarII,moremacroeconomictheorywasdevelopedtheIS-LMmodelwascreatedtherelationshipbetweeninterestratesandthemoneysupplywasinvestigatedthedifferencebetweenthebehaviorofthemacroeconomyintheflexible-pricelongrunandthefixed-priceshortrunwasclarifiedofMacroeconomics(宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布ThePastofMacroeconomicsButmacroeconomicstheoryin1960wasstillincompletenodiscussionoftherelationshipbetweenproductionandinflationnodetailedmodelofexpectationstheshortrunwasseenaslastingfordecadesfiscalpolicywasemphasized,whiletheroleofmonetarypolicywasdownplayedestimatesofthemultiplierweremuchhigherthanwebelievenowtobecorrectofMacroeconomics(宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布ThePastofMacroeconomicsBetween1960and1980,twopowerfulcritiquesoftheconventionalwisdomofmacroeconomicsoccurredthefirstwasbyMiltonFriedmanthestandardmodelsoverestimatedthegovernment’sabilitytocontroltheeconomythestandardmodelsoverestimatedthepoweroffiscalpolicyandunderestimatedthepowerofmonetarypolicythemoneysupplytellsusmostofwhatweneedtoknowabouthowpolicyisworkingthereisanaturalrateofunemploymentofMacroeconomics(宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布ThePastofMacroeconomicsthesecondwasbyRobertLucasKeynesianeconomicsfailstothinkthroughtheimportanceofexpectationssystematicchangesineconomicpolicywouldchangetheparametersoftheconsumptionandinvestmentfunctionsaswellasthelocationofthePhillipscurveofMacroeconomics(宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布ThePastofMacroeconomicsThelate1980sand1990swereatimeofideagenerationandexplorationmacroeconomistsexploredandtestedalargenumberofdifferentideasandmodelsthemainstreampolicy-analyticpositionofmacroeconomistsdidnotshiftmuchofMacroeconomics(宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布TheFutureofMacroeconomics:RealBusinessCycles?KeynesianandmonetaristeconomistsbelievethattherearetwokeyelementstounderstandingbusinesscyclesthedeterminantsofaggregatedemandthedivisionofchangesinnominalaggregatedemandintochangesinproductionandchangesinpricesofMacroeconomics(宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布TheFutureofMacroeconomics:RealBusinessCycles?RealbusinesscycleeconomistsbelievethatchangesinnominalaggregatedemandaffectoutputandemploymentonlyslightlyandhavethemostimpactonpricesRealbusinesscycletheorybeginswiththeassumptionthatthesametheorythatdetermineswhathappensinthelongrunshouldbeappliedtofluctuationsintheshortrunofMacroeconomics(宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布TheFutureofMacroeconomics:RealBusinessCycles?Whilerealbusinesscycleeconomistsbelievethatpricescanberigid,theybelievethatthissluggishnessofpricesisnotveryrelevanttheyassumethatitisareasonablefirst-approximationtosupposethatthemoneysupplyandthelevelofpotentialoutputdeterminethepricelevelthelevelofpotentialoutputismore-or-lessequaltoactualrealGDPofMacroeconomics(宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布TheFutureofMacroeconomics:RealBusinessCycles?RealbusinesscycleeconomistsbelieveintheclassicaldichotomyrealvariableseffectivelydeterminethevaluesofrealquantitieslikerealGDPevenintheshortrunnominalvariablesdeterminethevaluesofnominalquantitieslikethepricelevelofMacroeconomics(宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布TheFutureofMacroeconomics:RealBusinessCycles?RealbusinesscycletheoryassumesthatthelevelofoutputwillvarywithshockstotheeconomyadversecostshocksleadtoarecessionasindividualsshouldspendlesstimeworkingbecauseitisnotprofitablefavorablecostshocksleadtoaboomperiodbecauseitisadvantageoustoproduceasmuchaspossibleofMacroeconomics(宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布ProblemsofRealBusinessCycleTheoryUnemploymentrealbusinesscycletheoryassumesthatthetotalhoursworkedatanymomentislargelydeterminedbyhowmanyhoursitmakessenseforpeopletoworkbutwhenworkhoursfall,itisnotbecausepeoplehavechosentoworkshortershiftsandavoidovertimeitisbecausetheyhavebecomeunemployedofMacroeconomics(宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布ProblemsofRealBusinessCycleTheoryTechnologyandRealBusinessCyclesaccordingtorealbusinesscycletheory,productionfluctuatesbecauseofthechangingvalueofoutputandthechangingproductivityoftheeconomymoreisproducedwhentechnologyrisesrecessionsoccurwhencostincreasesmakeitinefficienttorunfactoriesatnearcapacitycriticsclaimthatcostincreaseslikethe1973oilpriceshockaretheexceptionratherthantheruleofMacroeconomics(宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布ProblemsofRealBusinessCycleTheoryMoneyandBusinessCyclesrealbusinesscycletheoriststendtoarguethatmonetarypolicyhaslittleimpactonproductionandemploymentfluctuationsinthemoneystockandrealinterestratesaremorereactionstochangesalreadytakingplacetheFederalReservebelievesthatitaffectsthelevelofinterestratesandthatitsdecisionscausechangesinproductionandemploymentofMacroeconomics(宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布TheFutureofMacroeconomics:NewKeynesianEconomicsSincethe1930s,mainstreammacroeconomicshasattributedthesluggishnessofaggregatesupplytostickinessinwagesandpricesTherefore,fluctuationsinnominalaggregatedemandcausefluctuationsinoutputandemploymentofMacroeconomics(宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布TheFutureofMacroeconomics:NewKeynesianEconomicsWheredoesthisstickinessandslowadjustmentofwagesandpricescomefrom?menucostsitiscostlyforbusinessestochangepricesstaggeredpricesandcoordinationfailuresafirm’sbestchoiceforitspricemaydependonthepricesthatotherfirmsarechargingthismeansthatwagesandpricesmayexhibitinertiaofMacroeconomics(宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布DebtsandDeficits:
RicardianEquivalenceIfthegovernmentrunsabudgetdeficit,itwillmakeupthedeficitbyborrowingmoneynowandimplicitlycommittingtoraisetaxestorepaythedebtatsometimeinthefutureofMacroeconomics(宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布DebtsandDeficits:
RicardianEquivalenceEconomistRobertBarroarguesthatconsumerswillseethebudgetdeficitasanincreaseinfuturetaxesandcutbackonconsumptionwhatmattersforthedeterminationofconsumptionspendingthisyearisnotwhattaxesareleviedonyouthisyear,butwhatallthechangesingovernmentpolicytellyouaboutstreamoftaxesthisyearandinthefutureofMacroeconomics(宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布DebtsandDeficits:
RicardianEquivalenceManyeconomistsbelievethatRicardianequivalencedoesnotholdforanumberofreasonsmyopialiquidityconstraintspeoplearedifferentofMacroeconomics(宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布ConsumptionandSavingIntheearly1900s,themarginalpropensitytoconsumewashighpeoplewereliquidityconstrainedThefinancialsysteminthepast50yearshasbecomemuchmoreflexibleeconomictheorywouldpredictthatthemarginalpropensitytoconsumewoulddeclineandthemultiplierprocesswouldbemoreorlessirrelevanttoaggregatedemandofMacroeconomics(宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布ConsumptionandSavingBut,consumptionfallssignificantlywhentheeconomygoesintorecessionWhy?onepossibilityisthatconsumersarebothimpatientandriskaverseanotherpossibleexplanationisthatcurrentincomeisagoodproxyforpermanentincomeanothersuggestionisforeconomiststofocusonwhatpsychologistshavetosayabouthowhumansreasonofMacroeconomics(宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布DoesMonetaryPolicyHaveaLong-RunFuture?EconomistshavetendedtoassumethatmonetarypolicyispowerfulandthatthereasonsforitspowerareuninterestingThefutureevolutionofthefinancialsystemmayunderminethesourcesofinfluencethatmonetarypolicytodaypossessesofMacroeconomics(宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布DoesMonetaryPolicyHaveaLong-RunFuture?ForecastingthefutureofmonetarypolicywillrequireadeeperknowledgeandbettermodelsofthesourcesofcentralbankpowerthanmacroeconomistscurrentlypossessofMacroeconomics(宏观经济学加州大学詹姆斯·布ChapterSummaryModernmacroeconomicshasitsorigininthe“Keynesian”theoriesoftheGreatDepressionandpost-WWIIeraModernmacroeconomicswasreforgedbythemonetaristsunderMiltonFriedmaninthe1960sand1970s,andbytherationalexpectationseconomistsledbyRobertLucasin
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