全球私人市场资产管理：欧美上市私人市场管理公司估值差异的驱动因素评估

1、Global Private Market AMsAssessing drivers for valuation differential between European and US listed private market managersThe European Private Market Asset Managers (PMAMs) trade at a premium to the US PMAMs based on CY22E P/E, P/FRE and P/AUM multiples. We assess the drivers we believe may explai

2、n the valuation differences. In particular, we believe the larger size of the US PMAMs may contribute to the lower levels of asset growth and significant dry powder in the US may make deployment more challenging and impact future returns. In Europe, the higher proportion of revenues from management

3、fees, higher margins and stronger CAGR in fee-related earnings, may support the premium valuation. In Europe our preferred picks are Intermediate Capital (AFL stock) and Partners Group, we remain restricted on EQT. In the US, Brookfield, Ares and KKR are the preferred picks.European PMAMs have achie

4、ved stronger AUM and asset raising vs. the US PMAMs. The fact that the European players in absolute terms are smaller with the average AUM at $77bn vs. the US peers average AUM of$345bn may partly explain their higher growth (from a lower base) and support future growth. We expect the European AMs t

5、o deliver 14% AUM CAGR from asset raising vs. 11% for US AMs.Higher dry powder and SPACs growth in the US increases competition for assets and inflates acquisition multiples, potentially impacting returns, with research indicating US buyout funds relative returns vs. public market equivalents are co

6、nverging in the US, whilst European buyout funds continue to show strong outperformance.European PMAMs generate higher management fee-related revenues supported by the higher proportion of fee earning AUM (94% for European PMAM vs. 66% for US PMAMs) and higher management fee margins (2016-20 average

7、 for European PMAM 109bps vs. US PMAM 83bps) The US PMAMs have increased the management fee revenue contribution to total revenues, as the proportion of unrealized carried interest/performance fees have reduced since 2019.European PMAMs delivering higher fee-related earnings (FRE) growth which we vi

8、ew as the primary earnings driver. Over the 2016-2020 period FRE has shown positive growth among all the PMAMs. We estimate FRE CAGR (2020-22) of 27% for European PMAMs and 14% for the US PMAMs.US C-Corp conversions drove a re-rating but European premiumremains. Whilst the conversion to C-Corp in th

9、e US closers aligns with the listed corporate structures in Europe, some restrictions may existKey stock picks. Our preferred names include ICP, we raise our Dec-22 TP to 2400p (from 2040p) and Partners Group Dec-22 to CHF1450 (from CHF1250) as we roll forward to Dec-22 from Dec 21. In the US, prefe

10、rred picks include Ares, Brookfield and KKR.Europe Equity Research15 April 2021European General Financials Gurjit S Kambo, CFA AC(44-20) 7742-0719 HYPERLINK mailto:gurjit.s.kambo gurjit.s.kamboBloomberg JPMA KAMBO J.P. Morgan Securities plcJulia Varesko, CFA(44 20) 3493-0551 HYPERLINK mailto:julia.v

11、aresko julia.vareskoJ.P. Morgan Securities plcShivani Vardhanapu(91-22) 6157-3635 HYPERLINK mailto:shivani.vardhanapu shivani.vardhanapuJ.P. Morgan India Private LimitedBrokers, Asset Managers & ExchangesKenneth B. Worthington, CFA(1-212) 622-6613 HYPERLINK mailto:kenneth.b.worthington kenneth.b.wor

12、thingtonJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCUK Investment Companies Christopher Brown(44-20) 7134-4722 HYPERLINK mailto:christopher.brown christopher.brownJ.P. Morgan Securities plcAdam Kelly(44-20) 7742-9526 HYPERLINK mailto:adam.kelly adam.kellyJ.P. Morgan Securities plcEurope vs US key valuation metrics504

13、2x30 x30 x27 %21x10 %403020100FY22E P/E FY22E P/FREMkt Cap/FEAUMUS avgEurope avgSource: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Prices as of 13.04.2021See page 41 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business

14、 with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. HYPERLINK / Table

15、 of Contents HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Executive summary 3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 Assessing the rationale for European valuation premium 8 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Larger funds gaining share; European AMs lead on growth 11 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 On average only two thirds of US firms AUM is fee earning 1

16、4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 Levels of dry powder higher for US firms 15 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 European PMAMs higher exposure to PE 17 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 Management fee earnings contribution remains higher for European PMAM 18 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 Fee related earnings are valued higher 18 HYPERLI

17、NK l _bookmark8 FRE margins 19 HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 Balance sheet exposure 20 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 US C-Corp conversion closed valuation gap 21 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks 23Equity Ratings and Price TargetsCompanyTickerMkt Cap ($ mn)Price CCYPrice Rating CurPr

18、evCur Price End DateTarget PrevEnd DateEQTEQT SS33,728.57SEK301.20NRn/cn/cn/cIntermediate Capital GroupICP LN7,843.60GBp2,018OWn/c2,400Dec-222,040Dec-21Partners GroupPGHN SW38,137.52CHF1,320.00OWn/c1,450.00Dec-221,250.00Dec-21Apollo Global Management IncAPO US21,843.10USD49.47Nn/c52.00Dec-21n/cn/cAr

19、es ManagementARES US6,887.18USD56.22OWn/c64.00Dec-21n/cn/cBlackstoneBX US93,795.77USD78.00OWn/c72.00Dec-21n/cn/cBrookfield Asset ManagementBAM US68,634.22USD45.39OWn/c57.00Dec-21n/cn/cCarlyle Group Inc/TheCG US4,180.10USD38.99OWn/c39.00Dec-21n/cn/cHamilton LaneHLNE US4,963.04USD92.98Nn/c81.00Dec-21n

20、/cn/cKKR & Co IncKKR US45,260.00USD53.11OWn/cn/cn/cStepStoneSTEP US3,409.46USD34.80Nn/c35.00Dec-21n/cn/cSource: Company data, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan estimates. n/c = no change. All prices as of 14 Apr 21.Executive summaryEuropean private market asset managers trade at a premium to US PM

21、AMs The European PMAMs have historically traded at a P/E premium to the US PMAMs. Current valuations highlight the premium continues to exist based on either P/E, P/FRE (fee related earnings) or P/AUM multiples. In Europe, P/E is often used as themain relative valuation metric but in the US, P/FRE i

22、s more commonly used, FRE is based on earnings excluding performance fees/carried interest. We assess a number of factors that may help explain the relative valuation difference between the US and European private market asset managers.Figure 1: European PMAMs trade at premium vs. US on 1YF P/EFigur

23、e 2: FY22E PE Ratio vs FY20-22E EPS CAGR50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%C-Corp transitionEQT inclusion45x 40 x 35x 30 x 25x 20 x 15x 10 x 5xStepStone Hamilton LanePartnersFY20-22E Avg EPS CAGR 22%EQTBlackstoneEurope AvgFY22E Avg PE 24xICPAresUS AvgKKRCarlyleBrookfieldApolloAverage Premium 27%FY22E PE

24、0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%Jan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-21Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Prices as of 13.04.2021FY20-22E EPS CAGRSource: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Prices as of 13.04.2021European PMAMs stronger AUM growth and asset raisingHigher level

25、s of AUM growth and asset raising has been achieved by the European PMAMs vs. the US PMAMs. The fact that the European PMAMs in absolute terms are still smaller with the average AUM at $77bn vs. the US peers average AUM of$345bn may partly explain their higher growth (from a lower base) and also rel

26、atively higher efficiency at deploying capital, and may provide greater scope for future growth.Figure 3: Total AUM CAGR driven by asset raising vs total CAGR - US vs Europe 2015-202040%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%34%28%29%24%28%22% 22%20%17%16%21%16%22%19%14%16%13%14%11%12%16%14%6%11EQT*ICP*ApolloPartner

27、sBrookfield*KKRAresBlackstone * HamiltonCarlyleUS averageEuropeAUM CAGR 2015-2020Asset raising driven CAGRLane*averageSource: J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data. EQT adjusted for disposal of credit, ICP and HLNE show CAGR for FY16-21E, Brookfield adjusted for acquisition of Oaktree and Blackstone a

28、djusted for acquisition of DCI.Looking forward, we expect the European PMAMs to continue to see a higher contribution to AUM CAGR from asset raising (14%) vs. the US PMAM (11%).Figure 4: Asset raising driven AUM CAGR (2020-22) by company17%16%15%14%14%12%10%11%10%10%10%9%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%Par

29、tnersICPHamilton LaneCarlyleKKRApolloBrookfieldEQTAresBlackstoneUSEuropeSource: J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data. Estimates for fee earning AUM are used for KKR, Hamilton Lane and Brookfield. KKR assumes all change in AUM is from asset raising and excludes the effect of GA acquisition. ICP and HL

30、NE have a March year end and correspond to FY21E-FY23E.European PMAMs have higher fee-earning AUMEuropean PMAMs have a higher proportion of fee-earning AUM with lower market related component in their AUM mix. The European PMAMs have a higher proportion of management fees that are generated on commi

31、tted capital creating a more stable earnings stream, in our view. The European PMAM also have limited exposure to listed securities, and whilst not disclosed by all the US PMAMs, we believe there may be greater listed exposure in certain US PMAMs, which we believe may also impact the valuation. For

32、example, Partners has c1% listed investments/AUM exposure vs. c25% for KKR.Figure 5: Fee earning AUM as % of total AUM - 2020100%100%94%81%64%71%74%77%77%66%47%54%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%BrookfieldHamiltonLaneAresCarlyleKKRApolloBlackstoneICPPGEQTUS avg. Europe avg.Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Compa

33、ny data. Note: ICP refers to third party AUM as % of total. HL and ICP have March year end so FY21E is used.Higher dry powder and SPACs growth in the US may increase competition Higher levels of dry powder among the US players may increase the level of competition for assets and inflate acquisition

34、multiples, which may impact the levels of returns achieved. Research from Bain & Company highlights the relative net IRRfrom US buyout funds vs. the public market equivalent have started to converge, whilst in Developed European buyout funds the relative outperformance remains strong. In addition, t

35、he US has also seen a significant increase in the number of SPACs that have listed which may also increase the competitive landscape for deals in the US, although we accept this may also provide another avenue for realisations.Figure 6: Dry powder as % of AUM32% 32%27%23% 24%23%16%17%10% 11% 13%35%3

36、0%25%20%15%10%5%0%Figure 7: US and Europe buyouts vs. public market equivalent (PME)20%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%Source: Company reports, end 2020. ICP Sept 2020151020US buyoutsS&P 500 PMEEurope buyoutsFTSE100 PMESource: Bain & Company. PME is a public market equivalentEuropean PMAMs have higher mana

37、gement fee contributionThe European PMAMs on average have a higher contribution to total revenues from management fee related revenues with best-in-class fee margin levels, particularly at EQT and PGHN. However, it is worth noting that the US PMAMs have substantially increased the management fee rev

38、enue contribution to total revenues, as the proportion of unrealized carried interest/performance fees have reduced from 2019 onwards.Figure 8: Management fee contribution to revenues94%91%84%82%76%74%68%61%64%72%39%36%30%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%EQTHamilton LaneAresPartnersApolloICP FMCCarlyle Blackst

39、oneICPBrookfieldKKRUS avg. Europe avg.201620202022Eaverage 2016-2020Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data. Brookfield shows FY17-FY20.European greater PE exposure supports higher management fee margins On average, the European PMAMs have higher relative exposure to private equity vs. the US PM

40、AMs. The higher proportion of equity exposure typically drives higher management fee margins and longer investment horizons. Over the period 2016-20,on average the highest management fee margins were achieved by Partners Group, EQT and Areas. The average for the European AMs was 109bps vs. 83bps in

41、the US.Figure 9: European players have a higher private equity contribution 2020 supporting higher management fee margins100%80%60%40%20%0%ApolloAresBlackstone BrookfieldCarlyleKKRICPPartnersEQT PEReal AssetsGlobal CreditOtherAvg Fee Margin 16-20 (RHS)140120100806040200Source: J.P. Morgan estimates,

42、 Company data.Fee-related earnings (FRE) growth closer correlation to PE valuation.Fee related earnings (FRE) over the 2016-2020 period has shown steady and positive growth among all the PMAMs in our sample in all individual periods covered, with European PMAMs seeing stronger CAGR (2016-20). We est

43、imate FRE CAGR (2020-22) of 27% for European PMAMs and 14% for the US PMAMs. The correlation of PE multiples is greater to FRE CAGR as opposed to EPS CAGR, suggesting growth in FRE is a bigger driver for valuation.Figure 10: Fee Related Earnings CAGR 2016-2020 and 2020-22160%140%120%100%Figure 11: F

44、Y22E P/FRE Ratio vs FY20-22E FRE CAGRFY20-22E FRE CAGR 16%EQTStepStoneHamilton LaneEurope avgPartnersApolloBlackstone ICPCarlyle US avgKKRFY22E Avg P/FRE 33xAresBrookfieldFY22E P/FRE70 x 60 x80%60%40%20%0%-20%53%41%23% 21% 19% 12% 10%4% 3%EQTAresKKRBrookfieldICPBlackstonePGCarlyleApolloHLNE-6%14%27%

45、50 x 40 x 30 x 20 x10 x-20% -10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%FRE CAGR 2016-2020FRE CAGR 2020-2022Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data. Note: For historic comparisons Brookfield CAGR relates to 2019-20, KKR to 2018-20, Hamilton Lane and Carlyle to 2017-2020.FY20-22E FRE CAGRUS avg.Europe avg.Source: J.

46、P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Prices as of 13.04.2021European FRE margins higherAll of the asset managers have seen an expansion in the FRE margin. In Europe, Partners Group continues to lead with highest margins in the group, while both EQT and ICP saw expanding margins. In terms of e

47、stimates between 2020 and 2022, we expect the European AM to maintain or increase FRE margins whilst for the US margins are expected to remain broadly stable on average.Figure 12: FRE margin - FRE as % of Management Fees63%68%67% 66%55%58% 60%58%57% 59%57%50%55%49% 50%52%43%47%45%36%39%33% 32%33%80%

48、70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%ApolloAresBlackstone BrookfieldCarlyleHamiltonLaneKKREQTICPPGUS AvgEurope Avg20202021E2022ESource: J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data.Conversion to C-Corp helped the US firms re-rateThe US private market AMs in 2019 began converting from publicly traded partnerships to a C-co

49、rporation (C-Corp), which means the corporations are taxed separately from its owners. The benefits of conversion to C-Corp include enhanced liquidity, potential for index inclusion and reduced stock price volatility. The downside of C-Corp structure is that taxes levied could be higher although giv

50、en corporation tax cuts over the past few years this has minimised the difference, although higher taxes in the US could be a risk. The conversion to C-Corp does appear to have driven a re-rating in the US private market AMs since mid-2019 helped by index inclusion. Whilst the conversion to C-Corps

51、closer aligns with the listed corporate structures in Europe, there may still be some features such as non- voting rights that may restrict the inclusion of C-Corps in certain indices.Figure 13: European PM AM premium vs. US peers narrowed since C-Corp conversion 1YF historic P/E50%40%30%20%10%0%-10

52、%-20%C-Corp transitionAverage Premium 14%Jan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-21Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Europe excludes EQTAssessing the rationale for European valuation premiumThe listed European PMAMs trade at a significant premium to the US PMAMs based on headline P/E, P/FRE (fee relate

53、d earnings) as well as P/AUM multiples. Whilst we have not been an advocate of valuing private market asset managers on P/E, P/FRE or P/AUM metrics, we do believe investors use such metrics to compare valuations across the industry. In this Note, we try to assess if there is a rationale for the Euro

54、pean names to trade on higher multiples. In the US, only Hamilton Lane and StepStone trades at comparable valuations to Europe, which we believe reflects the higher proportion of recurring management fee revenues.Figure 14: Private Market AMs CY 21E P/E and CY22 P/E - US vs Europe60 x50 x 40 x 30 x

55、20 x 10 x 0 x49x50 x41x40 x39x38x37x33x29x25x36x30 x25x22x19x18x18x25x21x15x17x18x14x9x9x 7xStepStoneEQTHLNEPartners BlackstoneAresICPKKRCarlyleApolloBrookfieldUS avg Europe avg CY21 PECY22E PESource: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Priced as of 13/04/21. Note: Brookfield adjusted for

56、the value of listed stakes.Figure 15: Private Markets AMs - CY 21E P/FRE and CY22 P/FRE - US vs Europe80 x70 x 60 x 50 x40 x68x63x55x48x41x42x41x38x30 x35x32x22x30 x28x28x32x30 x46x42x30 x 20 x 10 x 0 x25x26x24x27x25x19x15xEQTStepstoneHLNEPartnersAresBlackstoneICPKKRApolloCarlyleBrookfieldUS avg Eur

57、ope avgCY21 P/FRECY22E P/FRESource: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Priced as of 13/04/21. Note: Brookfield adjusted for the value of listed stakes.Figure 16: Private Markets companies FY 21E MCap/AUM - US vs Europe45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%39%30%27%14%12%11%11%7%6%5%8%4%3%EQTPartner

58、s BlackstoneKKRICPBrookfieldAresHamiltonLaneCarlyleApolloStepstoneUS avg Europe avgSource: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Priced as of 13/04/21. Note: Total market cap, unadjusted for listed investments.Figure 17: Private Markets companies FY 21E MCap/FE AUM - US vs Europe45%40%35%30%

59、25%20%15%10%5%0%39%30%27%19%15%14%12%9%9%8%10%6%6%EQTPartners BlackstoneKKRICPHamiltonLaneBrookfieldAresCarlyleStepStoneApolloUS avg Europe avgSource: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Priced as of 13/04/21. Note: Brookfield market cap adjusted for values of listed investments.Figure 18:

60、 Private Markets companies FY 21E P/E historic US and EuropeFigure 19: Private Markets companies FY 21E P/E historic discount/premium Europe vs US35EQT inclusion30252015105Jan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-2150%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%C-Corp transitionAverage Premium 27%EQT inclusionEurope