已阅读5页,还剩16页未读, 继续免费阅读
版权说明:本文档由用户提供并上传,收益归属内容提供方,若内容存在侵权,请进行举报或认领
文档简介
毕业设计外文资料翻译题目城市流动性和城市形态不同模式的城市扩张产生的社会和环境成本学院土木建筑学院专业建筑学班级学生学号指导教师二一一年三月二十八日ECOLOGICALECONOMICS402002199216URBANMOBILITYANDURBANFORMTHESOCIALANDENVIRONMENTALCOSTSOFDIFFERENTPATTERNSOFURBANEXPANSIONROBERTOCAMAGNI,MARIACRISTINAGIBELLI,PAOLORIGAMONTIABSTRACTTHEQUESTIONOFTHEENVIRONMENTALORSOCIALCOSTSOFURBANFORMISINCREASINGLYATTRACTINGATTENTIONINSPATIALPOLICY,BUTSCIENTICDEBATEINTHISELDISOFTENMARREDBYPREJUDICESANDABSTRACTVISIONSEMPIRICALANALYSESAREVERYRARETHEPRESENTSTUDYAIMSATESTABLISHING,INTHEMETROPOLITANAREAOFMILAN,WHETHERDIFFERENTPATTERNSOFURBANEXPANSIONCOULDBEASSOCIATEDWITHSPECICENVIRONMENTALCOSTSINPARTICULAR,FORLANDCONSUMPTIONANDMOBILITYGENERATIONDIFFERENTTYPOLOGIESOFURBANEXPANSIONWEREDENED,ANDANIMPACTINDEXWEIGHTINGDIFFERENTLYJOURNEYTOWORKTRIPSWITHREFERENCETOMODEANDTIMELENGTHWASBUILTATTHEMUNICIPALITYLEVELTHESTATISTICALANALYSISCONRMEDTHEEXPECTEDWASTEFULCHARACTEROFSPRAWLINGDEVELOPMENTPATTERNSINTERMSOFLANDCONSUMPTION,THOUGHSUGGESTINGTHATRECENTURBANDEVELOPMENTISBECOMINGRELATIVELYVIRTUOUSWITHRESPECTTOTHEPASTWITHREFERENCETOTHEMOBILITYGENERATED,HIGHERENVIRONMENTALIMPACTSWEREPROVEDTOBEASSOCIATEDWITHLOWDENSITIES,SPRAWLINGDEVELOPMENT,MORERECENTURBANISATIONPROCESSESANDRESIDENTIALSPECIALISATIONOFTHESINGLEMUNICIPALITIESPUBLICTRANSPORTSEEMSTOBESTRONGLYINUENCED,BOTHINTERMSOFEFCIENCYANDCOMPETITIVENESS,BYTHESTRUCTURALORGANISATIONOFANURBANAREATHEMOREDISPERSEDANDLESSSTRUCTUREDTHEDEVELOPMENT,THELOWERITSLEVELOFEFCIENCYANDCOMPETITIVENESSANDCONSEQUENTLYITSSHAREOFTHEMOBILITYMARKETONTHECONTRARY,TRIPTIMESFORPRIVATETRANSPORTAPPEARTOBECORRELATEDNOTSOMUCHTOURBANDIMENSIONORDENSITYASTOTHEPRESENCEOFRECENTHOUSINGDEVELOPMENT,INDICATINGTHEEMERGENCEOFNEWMODELSOFLIFESTYLEANDMOBILITYWHICHAREVERYDIFFERENTFROMTHOSEOFTHEPAST2002ELSEVIERSCIENCEBVALLRIGHTSRESERVEDKEYWORDSURBANEXPANSIONURBANFORMURBANSUSTAINABILITYPUBLICTRANSPORT1INTRODUCTIONTOGETHERWITHTECHNOLOGIESANDCONSUMPTIONSTYLES,THEFORMOFSETTLEMENTSANDTHEWAYHUMANACTIVITIESAREORGANISEDINGEOGRAPHICALSPACEREPRESENTCRUCIALRESEARCHELDSANDSOURCESOFPREOCCUPATIONASFARASECOLOGICALEQUILIBRIAARECONCERNEDCAMAGNIETAL,1998INFACT,INPRINCIPLE,THERESOURCEEFCIENCYOFDIFFERENTSETTLEMENTPATTERNSISSUBJECTTOWIDEVARIATIONSWITHREFERENCE,ATLEAST,TOTWOSCARCENATURALRESOURCESLANDRESOURCESFORRESIDENTIALUSESANDENERGYRESOURCESFORMOBILITYUSESLANDCONSUMPTIONDEPENDSDIRECTLYONTHERELATIVECOMPACTNESSOFHUMANSETTLEMENTSANDONRESIDENTIALDENSITYENERGYCONSUMPTION,ONTHEOTHERHAND,DEPENDSINDIRECTLYONTHESAMEVARIABLES,VIATHEIRLINKAGEWITHMOBILITYPATTERNSTRIPLENGTHANDMODALCHOICEBETWEENPRIVATEANDPUBLICMEANSTHESTUDYISDIVIDEDINTOTWOMAINPARTSINTHERSTPARTWEANALYSETHETYPICALFEATURESOFCURRENTURBANDEVELOPMENTANDLOOKATTHERESULTSOFSOMERECENTINTERNATIONALEMPIRICALANALYSESONTHECOMPARATIVECOSTSOFDIFFERENTTYPOLOGIESOFURBANDEVELOPMENTSECTION2INTHESECONDPARTWEPRESENTTHEMAINNDINGSOFOUREMPIRICALANALYSESCARRIEDOUTINTHEPROVINCEOFMILANWEDENEANUMBEROFARCHETYPALFORMSOFURBANDEVELOPMENTSECTION31,MEASURETHEASSOCIATEDCONSUMPTIONOFLANDSECTION32ANDTHENCARRYOUTADETAILEDANALYSISOFTHEMOBILITYGENERATEDANDITSENVIRONMENTALCOSTSSECTION332DEVELOPMENTATTHEURBANFRINGEDYNAMICS,INTERPRETATIONSANDEMPIRICALANALYSIS21EMERGINGURBANFORMANDITSRELEANCEFORSUSTAINABLEDEELOPEMENTINEUROPE,THEAREASSURROUNDINGMOSTLARGECITIESHAVEBEENRADICALLYTRANSFORMEDOVERTHELAST20YEARSNOTONLYHASTHEREBEENANINCREASEINGAMOUNTOFBUILTDEVELOPMENT,BUTTHISHASSPREADEXTENSIVELYINFORMSWHICHAREVERYDIFFERENTFROMTHOSECHARACTERISINGTRADITIONALSUBURBANISATION,IEEXPANSIONTHATOCCURREDAROUNDADENSEURBANNUCLEUS,PREVALENTLYTHROUGHEXTENSIONAND/ORRELATIVELYCOMPACTDEVELOPMENTMANYURBANAREAS,ALTHOUGHDEMOGRAPHICALLYSTATIC,ORATTHEMOSTSHOWINGWEAKSIGNSOFPOPULATIONGROWTH,HAVESPREADOUTANDDILUTEDOVERSPACEINAFORMOFDEVELOPMENTWHOSEFEATURESHAVEBEENVERYEFFECTIVELYDESCRIBEDWITHTHETERMSPRAWLLOWDENSITYDEVELOPMENT,EXTENDINGTOTHEEXTREMEEDGEOFTHEMETROPOLITANREGIONANDLOCATEDINARANDOM,LEAPFROGFASHION,SEGREGATEDINSPECIALISEDMONOFUNCTIONALLANDUSES,ANDLARGELYDEPENDENTONTHECARMAYETAL,1998OECD,2000THEREAREMANYCLOSELYINTERRELATEDREASONSFORTHESUCCESSOFTHEDIFFUSEDMETROPOLISASFARASRESIDENTIALLOCATIONISCONCERNED,THEMAINREASONSAPPEARTOBETHEDECLINEINENVIRONMENTALQUALITYOFTHEDENSELYBUILTCITYCENTRE,DUETOTRAFCCONGESTION,POLLUTION,DEGRADATIONOFPUBLICSPACESANDREDUCTIONOFSAFETYCHANGEINLIFESTYLES,DUEINPARTTOTHEINCREASEININCOMES,INFAVOUROFMORESPACIOUSDECENTRALISEDHOUSINGTHEREPLACEMENTOFRESIDENTIALLANDUSEINTHECITYCENTREBYTERTIARYACTIVITIESTHEFACTTHATHOUSINGIMPROVEMENTINTHECITYCENTRECOSTSMORETHANNEWCONSTRUCTIONOUTSIDETHECITYANDTHEHOUSINGSUPPLYSTRATEGIESOFREALESTATEAGENTS,WHICHNDLESSRESISTANCEINTHEMORESPACIOUSOUTOFTOWNAREASTHOSEWHOTAKETHESECONDAPPROACHMAINTAINTHATITISCRUCIALTOINTERVENE,THROUGHTHEADOPTIONOFSECTORALANDSPATIALPLANNINGPOLICIES,TOCONTAINURBANSPRAWLTHEYCONSIDERTHECURRENT,ANDABOVEALL,THEPROBABLEFUTURECOSTSUNDESIRABLE,MAINTAININGTHATTHESEARELIKELYTOGROWEXPONENTIALLYINTHEABSENCEOFCORRECTIVEMEASURESTHEEMERGENCEOFTHETHEMEOFURBANSUSTAINABILITYISANELEMENTWHICH,INRECENTYEARS,HASSTRENGTHENEDTHISSECONDVIEW,STIMULATINGAVARIETYOFREECTIONSANDALSOOPERATIVEINDICATIONSTHERSTAPPROACHISWELLREPRESENTEDINTHEEUROPEANCONTEXTBYTHETHEORETICIANSOFTHEVILLEEMERGENTECHALASANDDUBOISTAINE,1997,CONVINCEDOPPONENTSOFANYLARGESCALEPLANNINGAIMEDATCONTROLLINGURBANSPRAWLORRESTRICTINGTHEMOBILITYANDLOCATIONPREFERENCESOFINDIVIDUALSORECONOMICACTIVITIESTHEYARGUETHATITISIMPOSSIBLEDUETOTHEGROWINGCOMPLEXITYOFTHESPATIALINTERACTIONSPERMITTEDBYCARMOBILITY,POINTLESSASNEWTECHNOLOGIESWILLALLOWINCREASINGFREEDOMOFLOCATION,BUTABOVEALLSOCIALLYUNDESIRABLESINCETHEVILLEALACARTE,ORTHEVILLEAUXCHOIXWILLOFFERANINCREASINGFREEDOMFORPEOPLETODESIGNTHEIROWNLIFESPACESANDINTERPERSONALRELATIONS,APROCESSINWHICHITISNOTACCEPTABLETOINTERFEREEVENMORERADICALISTHEVIEWOFTHENORTHAMERICANFREEMARKETEERS,WHOCLAIMTHATTHEPROBLEMSCAUSEDBYEXTENSIVESUBURBANISATIONAREOVERESTIMATED,EMPHASISINGTHATTHENEWINFORMATIONTECHNOLOGIESARESETTOACCELERATETHEDISPERSIONOFPOPULATIONANDJOBSUNTILPHYSICALPROXIMITYWILLBECOMEIRRELEVANTTHEYARGUEGORDONANDRICHARDSON,1997THATONLYUNACCEPTABLEPOLICIESOFCOMMANDANDCONTROLCOULDCONSIDERINTERFERINGWITHTHEEVIDENTINDIVIDUALPREFERENCEFORLOWDENSITYHOUSINGTHATTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENURBANDENSICATIONANDREDUCTIONOFENERGYCONSUMPTIONISNOTSCIENTICALLYPROVEDTHATSPONTANEOUSPROCESSESOFSELFCORRECTIONAREPOSSIBLEINTHESHORTTOMEDIUMTERMTOREDUCETHEHOMETOWORKDISTANCE,ASSHOWNBYTHEEDGECITYPHENOMENONTHATTHEEFCIENCYOFMORECOMPACTSUBURBANDEVELOPMENTHASYETTOBEDEMONSTRATED,BOTHINTERMSOFCOSTSANDSOCIALREEQUILIBRIUMANDNALLYTHATTOPDOWN,LARGESCALEPLANNINGWOULDRISKTAKINGAWAYRESPONSIBILITYFROMLOCALAUTHORITIESINAPERIODOFGLOBALISATIONANDGROWINGCOMPETITIONBETWEENCITIESINWHICHANYPLANNINGERRORISIMMEDIATELYPUNISHEDBYTHEMARKETTHISMETAPHORHASBEENPUTINQUESTIONBYSOMESCHOLARSASTOOBROAD,GENERICANDIDEOLOGICALBREHENY,1992BANISTER,1992JENKSETAL,1996INPARTICULAR,THEURBANSCALETOWHICHITSHOULDAPPLYREMAINSUNCERTAINAND,BEYONDCERTAINLEVELSOFDENSITYANDSIZE,ITCOULDPRODUCETOWNCRAMMINGANDSCALEDISECONOMIESWHICHAREAMONGTHEMAINCAUSESOFPRESENTSUBURBANISATIONTENDENCIESELKINETAL,1991FOUCHIER,1998ASUFCIENTAGREEMENTEXISTS,THOUGH,ABOUTTHEDESIRABILITYOFAPOLYCENTRICURBANSTRUCTURE,ORGANISEDONSMALLANDMEDIUMSIZED,COMPACTCENTRES,WELLCONNECTEDTHROUGHANEFCIENTNETWORKOFPUBLICTRANSPORTBREHENYANDROOKWOOD,1993BLOWERS,1993BREHENY,1996HALLANDLANDRY,1997,WESOMETIMESCALLEDAWISELYCOMPACTURBANSTRUCTURECAMAGNIANDGIBELLI,199622DEMANDFORMOBILITYANDITSRELATIONSHIPWITHTHEFORMOFCITYEXPANSIONTHEDEMANDFORMOBILITY,ANDINPARTICULARTHEGROWINGDEPENDENCEONPRIVATEVEHICLESFORINTRAMETROPOLITANTRIPS,ISCURRENTLYACRUCIALCOMPONENTINTHEDEBATEONSUSTAINABLEURBANDEVELOPMENT,GIVENTHEECONOMIC,SOCIALANDENVIRONMENTALIMPACTFORWHICHITISRESPONSIBLEADIFFUSEDPATTERNOFURBANDEVELOPMENT,ALMOSTBYDENITION,CANNOTBEADEQUATELYSERVEDBYTHEPUBLICTRANSPORTINFRASTRUCTURESINCETHEDEMANDDENSITYISLOW,THESCATTERINGOFTHEDEMANDOVERTHETERRITORYISHIGHANDTHEDISPERSIONOFDESTINATIONSISALSOGROWINGBECAUSEOFTHESUBURBANISATIONOFJOBSTHISISTHEREASONWHYSOMANYANALYSESOFTHESOCIAL,ECONOMICANDENVIRONMENTALCOSTSOFURBANEXPANSIONHAVECONCENTRATEDONTHEPERVASIVEPRESENCEOFTHEAUTOMOBILEATECHNOLOGYCAPABLEOFBRINGINGPLACESNEARERBYPROVIDINGACCESSTOTHEINCREASINGLYDISPERSEDANDSPECIALISEDURBANFUNCTIONSCERVERO,1998NEWMANANDKENWORTHY,1999THESUBJECTHASALREADYBEENWIDELYINVESTIGATEDINNORTHAMERICA,ANDISNOWBECOMINGTHEFOCUSOFDEBATEINEUROPE,TOO,GIVENTHEEMERGENCEOFTHEPHENOMENONOFSPRAWLINGURBANDEVELOPMENTANDITSINCOMPATIBILITYWITHTHEOBJECTIVESOFSUSTAINABILITYONEQUESTIONPOSEDBYMANYRESEARCHERS,ANDALSOEXAMINEDINTHEPRESENTINVESTIGATION,ISWHETHERITISPOSSIBLETODEMONSTRATEASIGNICANTRELATIONSHIPBETWEENMOBILITYCONSUMPTIONANDTHEMORPHOLOGYOFURBANDEVELOPMENTINTHISCONNECTION,ITISINTERESTINGTHATANEMPIRICALANALYSISUNDERTAKENRECENTLYINTHEPARISMETROPOLITANAREASHOWSADIRECTRELATIONSHIPBETWEENTHERATEOFCAROWNERSHIPANDDISTANCEOFTHEAREAOFRESIDENCEFROMTHECENTRE,ANDALSOANINDIRECTRELATIONSHIPBETWEENTHEDEMOGRAPHICDENSITYOFTHEAREAOFRESIDENCEANDVARIABLESSUCHASTHERATEOFCAROWNERSHIP,THEDISTANCETRAVELLEDEACHDAYANDTHEPERCAPITACONSUMPTIONOFPETROLFOUCHIER,199823THECOSTSOFSPRAWLININTERNATIONALSURVEYSLANDCONSUMPTIONANDPUBLICCOSTSWENOWCOMETOTHECENTRALTHEMEOFOURRESEARCHPROGRAMMEONTHECOMMUNITYCOSTSOFSUBURBANDEVELOPMENT,INORDERTOUNDERLINEIMMEDIATELYADIFCULTYTHATOURANALYSISSHARESWITHOTHERINVESTIGATIONSATTHEINTERNATIONALLEVELALTHOUGHGOODEVIDENCEHASALREADYBEENPROVIDEDOFTHEECONOMIC,SOCIALANDENVIRONMENTALCOSTS,NDINGSRELATINGTOTHEPUBLICCOSTSOFSPRAWLAREMODEST,DUEMAINLYTOTHEOBJECTIVEDIFCULTIESOFNDINGSIGNICANTANDRELIABLEPERFORMANCEINDICATORSTHESPECICRESULTSAVAILABLERELATETOSTUDIESCARRIEDOUTPREDOMINANTLYINNORTHAMERICAANDTHEREFOREREFERTORATHERDIFFERENTSUBURBANISATIONPATTERNSANDAVERYDIFFERENTINSTITUTIONAL/ADMINISTRATIVECONTEXTNEVERTHELESS,ITISSIGNICANTTHATTHENDINGSREVEALASIGNICANTCORRELATIONBETWEENDIFFERENTFORMSOFURBANGROWTHANDPUBLICCOSTSPIONEERRESEARCHWASCARRIEDOUTINTHISELDIN1974BYTHEREALESTATERESEARCHCORPORATIONOFTHEUSGOVERNMENTINORDERTOESTIMATETHEECONOMICANDENVIRONMENTALCOSTSOFDIFFERENTTYPESOFURBANDEVELOPMENTANDDIFFERENTFORMSOFGROWTHONTHEURBANFRINGETHEEMPIRICALANALYSESCONSIDERTHEPUBLICCOSTSRELATINGTOTHECONSTRUCTIONANDMAINTENANCEOFSCHOOLS,HOUSING,GREENSPACE,ROADSANDSHOPPINGCENTRES,ANDESTIMATETHECOSTSTOTHECOMMUNITYINTERMSOFTHENEGATIVEENVIRONMENTALEFFECTSLANDCONSUMPTION,AIR,WATERANDNOISEPOLLUTIONANDSOCIALEFFECTSCARJOURNEYTIME,ACCIDENTS,PSYCHOLOGICALANDSOCIALCOSTSTHEMAINRESULTOFTHISRESEARCHWASTHEIDENTICATIONOFURBANDENSITYASTHEFUNDAMENTALVARIABLEOFTHEOVERALLCOSTSSUSTAINEDBYTHECOMMUNITYREALESTATERESEARCHCORPORATION,1974,THOUGHTHESECONCLUSIONSDIDNOTGOUNCHALLENGEDSEE,AMONGOTHERS,ALTSHULER1977ANDWINDSOR1979THISRESEARCH,WHICHMADEUSEOFSTATISTICALANALYSES,CASESTUDIESANDSURVEYSOFLOCALAUTHORITIES,EXAMINESVETYPESOFDEVELOPMENTTHEDENSICATIONOFTHECITYTHROUGHREUSEANDINLL,URBANEXTENSION,KEYVILLAGEEXTENSION,MULTIPLEVILLAGEEXTENSION,ANDNEWSETTLEMENTTHEADVANTAGESANDDISADVANTAGESOFEACHTYPEWEREASSESSEDINTERMSOFTHEECONOMIC,SOCIALANDENVIRONMENTALCOSTS,BOTHPUBLICANDPRIVATE,WITHTHEAIMOFFORMULATINGRECOMMENDATIONSANDSUGGESTIONSFORACTIONAIMEDATVARIOUSADMINISTRATIVELEVELSWITHRESPONSIBILITYFORTOWNANDCOUNTRYPLANNINGTHEAUTHORSTHEMSELVESDECLARETHENDINGSTOBELARGELYINCONCLUSIVEASTOTHEPREFERABLEMODEL3SOCIALCOSTSOFDIFFERENTTYPOLOGIESOFURBANEXPANSIONLANDCONSUMPTIONANDMOBILITYPATTERNS31TYPOLOGIESOFURBANEXPANSIONFOLLOWINGTHEGENERALREECTIONSOUTLINEDABOVE,THEPURPOSEOFOUREMPIRICALANALYSIS,CARRIEDOUTINTHEPROVINCEOFMILANO,WASTOIDENTIFYTHECHARACTERISTICSOFURBANDEVELOPMENTANDTHESOCIALCOSTSOFTHEURBANEXPANSIONWHICHOCCURREDDURINGTHETENYEARPERIOD198191THEVARIABLESEXAMINEDINCLUDETHECONSUMPTIONOFLANDFORHOUSINGDEVELOPMENTANDTHESOCIALCOSTSOFTHEMOBILITYGENERATEDUSINGASASTARTINGPOINTTHEMAPSDRAWNUPBYCENTROSTUDIPIMONLANDCONSUMPTIONINTHEMILANOAREAIN1991,THEPATTERNSOFRESIDENTIALDEVELOPMENTOVERTHEPERIOD198191INEACHOFTHE186COMMUNESWITHINTHEPROVINCEWEREANALYSEDUSINGADESCRIPTIVE/INTUITIVEAPPROACHATTHEMACROLEVEL,ITWASPOSSIBLETODISTINGUISHVETYPESOFURBANEXPANSIONINLLINGT1,EXTENSIONT2,LINEARDEVELOPMENTT3,SPRAWLT4,ANDLARGESCALEPROJECTST5TYPET1ISCHARACTERISEDBYSITUATIONSINWHICHTHEBUILDINGGROWTHOCCURSTHROUGHTHEINLLINGOFFREESPACESREMAININGWITHINTHEEXISTINGURBANAREAT2OCCURSINTHEIMMEDIATELYADJACENTURBANFRINGET3ISDEVELOPMENTWHICHFOLLOWSTHEMAINAXESOFTHEMETROPOLITANTRANSPORTINFRASTRUCTURET4CHARACTERISESTHENEWSCATTEREDDEVELOPMENTLOTST5CONCERNSNEWLOTSOFCONSIDERABLESIZEANDINDEPENDENTOFTHEEXISTINGBUILTUPURBANAREAALLTHECOMBINATIONSAMONGTHESETYPESWERETHENIDENTIEDAND,NALLY,BYELIMINATINGANDREASSIGNINGTHELEASTSIGNICANTCOMBINATIONS,ASELECTIONOF10PREVALENTTYPOLOGIESWASARRIVEDATTHESETYPOLOGIESWEREUSEDINTHESTATISTICALANALYSISONLANDCONSUMPTIONINTHESUBSEQUENTECONOMETRICANALYSISTHEYWEREREDUCEDTOFOURMAINTYPOLOGIESANDUSEDASINDEPENDENTDUMMYVARIABLES,TOGETHERWITHOTHERVARIABLESREFERRINGTOSETTLEMENTSTRUCTURE,INTHEINTERPRETATIONOFTHEENVIRONMENTALIMPACTOFMOBILITYBEFOREGOINGANYFURTHER,WESHOULDSPECIFYANIMPORTANTCAVEATGIVENTHELEVELOFSUBJECTIVITYINHERENTINTHEATTRIBUTIONOFTHEVARIOUSCOMMUNESTOTHEDIFFERENTCATEGORIES,THERESULTSWHICHWENOWANALYSEMUSTBETAKENASAPRELIMINARYAPPROXIMATION32LANDCONSUMPTIONASFARASTHEANALYSISOFLANDCONSUMPTIONISCONCERNED,THERSTSURVEYWECARRIEDOUTCOMPARESTHELANDAREADEVELOPEDFORRESIDENTIALANDSERVICEUSEBETWEEN1981AND1991INEACHCOMMUNETOTHENUMBEROFDWELLINGSTHISINDICATORWASPREFERREDTOTHEPERCAPITACONSUMPTIONOFLANDBECAUSETHELATTERMAYINCREASEINCASESWHERETHEPOPULATIONOFACOMMUNEDECLINES,GIVINGAFALSEINDICATIONTHREEMAINCATEGORIESEMERGEDFIG1THERELATIVELYTHRIFTYTYPES,WHERECONSUMPTIONWASBELOW450M2PERDWELLING,WHICHCORRESPONDEDASEXPECTEDTOTHECATEGORIESPUREINLLINGANDLARGESCALEPROJECTSTHERELATIVELYLANDGREEDYTYPES,WHICHBELONGED,AGAINASEXPECTED,TOTHECATEGORIESPURESPRAWL,LINEARDEVELOPMENTSPRAWL,ANDEXTENSIONSPRAWL,WHERECONSUMPTIONWASABOVE600M2PERDWELLING,PLUSEXTENSIONLINEARDEVELOPMENTWITH550M2PERDWELLINGANINTERMEDIATEGROUP,WHICHINCLUDEDTHECATEGORIESINLLINGEXTENSION,INLLINGSPRAWL,PUREEXTENSIONANDPURELINEARDEVELOPMENT,WITHCONSUMPTIONAROUND500M2PERDWELLINGIFWEOBSERVETHERATIOBETWEENTHENEWBUILTUPAREAANDNEWDWELLINGSINTIME1981VS1991,ANUNEXPECTEDLYPOSITIVETRENDEMERGESINFACT,FORALLTYPESOFDEVELOPMENTEXCEPTINLLING,THECONSUMPTIONOFLANDPERDWELLINGISSLIGHTLYDECLININGINTIMETHISSUGGESTSTHATNEWURBANDEVELOPMENTOVERALLISRELATIVELYLANDSPARINGCOMPAREDWITHTHEPAST33THEDEMANDFORMOBILITYANDITSSOCIALCOSTS331METHODOLOGYITEMERGESCLEARLYFROMTHELITERATURETHATTHEDEMANDFORMOBILITYISANIMPORTANTCOMPONENTOFTHEENVIRONMENTALIMPACTOFURBANDEVELOPMENT,ASILLUSTRATEDINSECTION2FORTHISREASON,INTHEPRESENTSTUDYITWASDECIDEDTOESTABLISHWHETHERITISPOSSIBLETOIDENTIFYSIGNICANTDIFFERENCESOFBEHAVIOURWITHINTHESTUDYAREAASFARASMOBILITYWASCONCERNEDAND,IFSO,TOASCERTAINWHETHERTHEREISANYSIGNICANTCORRELATIONBETWEENTHESEDIFFERENCESANDVARIABLESDESCRIBINGTHEFORMOFDEVELOPMENTTHEINTENTIONISTOPROVIDEABASISFORORIENTINGPLANNINGPOLICIESTHEWORKINGHYPOTHESISISTHATWITHINARELATIVELYHOMOGENEOUSAREAINTERMSOFINCOMELEVELANDGENERALSOCIOECONOMICCONDITIONS,SUCHASTHEPROVINCEOFMILANO,THELOCALDIFFERENCESINTHEMOBILITYPATTERNSTIMEANDMODECAN,ATLEASTTOACERTAINEXTENT,BEATTRIBUTEDTOTHEFORMINWHICHURBANGROWTHHASOCCURREDMOBILITYTHEREFOREHASTHEROLEOFDEPENDENTVARIABLE,WHILETHEFORMOFDEVELOPMENTANDITSDYNAMICSREPRESENTTHEINDEPENDENTVARIABLESFOURTYPESOFINDEPENDENTVARIABLESWEREADOPTEDSEEAPPENDIXAFORSTATISTICALDETAILSANDDENITIONOFVARIABLESGEOGRAPHICALVARIABLESDISTANCEFROMMILANSOCIOECONOMICVARIABLESPOPULATIONDENSITY,SIZEANDDYNAMICS,AGEOFBUILDINGS,RATIOOFJOBSTORESIDENTPOPULATIONEMP/RESMORPHOLOGYIETHETYPOLOGIESOFURBANDEVELOPMENTPREVIOUSLYDESCRIBED,REDUCEDTOFOURCLASSESINLLINGEXTENSIONEXTENSIONLINEARSPRAWLLARGESCALEPROJECTSSEEAPPENDIXAACCESSIBILITYANDTRANSPORTEFCIENCYCOMPETITIVENESSOFPUBLICTRANSPORT,SHAREOFPUBLICTRANSPORT,AVERAGETRIPTIMEFORPUBLICTRANSPORTTRIPSPUBLICTIMEANDPRIVATETRANSPORTTRIPSPRIVATETIME332FACTORSDETERMININGTHEINTENSITYOFTHEMOBILITYIMPACTTHESPATIALDISTRIBUTIONOFTHEINDICESOFIMPACTINTENSITYWASEXAMINEDUSINGANECONOMETRICANALYSISTOASCERTAINWHETHERTHEREWASASIGNICANTCORRELATIONWITHANYOFTHESELECTEDINDEPENDENTVARIABLESDESCRIBINGTHECHARACTERISTICSOFTHEURBANFORMITISIMPORTANTTONOTEHERETHATUSINGTHESETECHNIQUESINSTEADOFOLSDIDNOTINVOLVE,FOROURMODELANDFOROURAIMS,BIGDIFFERENCESINTHERESULTSTABLE2THEREFORE,ITISPOSSIBLETOSAYTHATTHEINFERENCEBASEDONTHESIMPLEROLSESTIMATORS,WHILENOTCOMPLETELYACCURATEABOVEALLASFARASTHESTANDARDDEVIATIONOFTHEESTIMATORSISCONCERNED,ISNOTMISLEADINGFORTHISREASON,INTHEREMAINDEROFTHEPAPERONLYOLSESTIMATORSWILLBEDISPLAYED,EVENTHOUGHWEACKNOWLEDGETHATMOREEFCIENTESTIMATORSCOULDBEFOUND,INPARTICULARIFWEWEREINTERESTEDINTESTINGHYPOTHESESABOUTTHEVALUEOFTHEPARAMETERSTHEOUTCOMEISSUMMARISEDBRIEYASFOLLOWSASIGNICANTINVERSERELATIONSHIPWASFOUNDBETWEENTHEINDEXMEASURINGTHEMOBILITYIMPACTANDNETPOPULATIONDENSITYDENSITYOFTHEBUILTUPAREA,INLINEWITHTHEEXPECTATIONSEXPRESSEDINTHEINTERNATIONALLITERATURETOGETHERWITHTHESIZEOFTHEURBANAREASINTERMSOFABSOLUTEPOPULATION,DENSITYAPPEARSTOHAVEMAINLYANINDIRECTEFFECTONTHEMOBILITYIMPACT,THROUGHITSINUENCEONTHEAVERAGETRIPTIMEOFPUBLICTRANSPORTANDHENCEONTHEMODALSPLITOFCOMMUTERTRIPSINFAVOUROFPUBLICTRANSPORTASIGNICANTRELATIONSHIPALSOEXISTSWITHTHEVARIABLESREPRESENTINGDEMOGRAPHICGROWTHRATEANDTHEAVERAGEAGEOFHOUSINGINBOTHCASES,THEIMPACTINDEXINCREASEDWITHTHEDYNAMISMOFTHECOMMUNESCONCERNEDINOTHERWORDS,HIGHVALUESWEREASSOCIATEDWITHCOMMUNESWITHARAPIDGROWTHOFPOPULATIONOVERTHETENYEARPERIOD19811991ANDALSOTHOSEWITHNEWERHOUSING,IEAREASOFRECENTEXPANSIONTHECOEFCIENTRELATINGTOTHEDISTANCEFROMTHECENTREOFMILANISSMALLINTERMSOFABSOLUTEVALUES0006POINTSPERKM,BUTISSIGNICANTLYLESSTHANZERO,INDICATINGTHEGREATERAUTONOMYOFTHETOWNSINTHEMOSTEXTERNALPARTSOFTHEPROVINCEANDASPATIALSTRUCTUREOFSETTLEMENTSSIMILARTOTHATOFASELFCONTAINEDINDUSTRIALDISTRICTFOLLOWINGTHESUBDIVISIONINTOGROUPSPROPOSEDINTHEPREVIOUSPARAGRAPH,THREEDUMMYVARIABLESWEREINTRODUCEDTOALLOWFORINTERCEPTSHIFTTHEANALYSISOFTHERELATIVECOEFCIENTSMAKESITPOSSIBLETOESTABLISHTHEFOLLOWINGRANKINGININCREASINGORDEROFIMPACTINLLEXTENSION,EXTENSIONLINEARDEVELOPMENT,SPRAWL,LARGESCALEPROJECTSNALLY,ANANALYSISWASMADEOFTHEROLEOFTHEEMPLOYMENT/RESIDENTSRATIO,AVARIABLETOWHICHTHELITERATUREATTRIBUTESCONSIDERABLEIMPORTANCEINCONNECTIONWITHMOBILITYDEMANDTHISRELATIONSHIPCANBECONSIDEREDANIND
温馨提示
- 1. 本站所有资源如无特殊说明,都需要本地电脑安装OFFICE2007和PDF阅读器。图纸软件为CAD,CAXA,PROE,UG,SolidWorks等.压缩文件请下载最新的WinRAR软件解压。
- 2. 本站的文档不包含任何第三方提供的附件图纸等,如果需要附件,请联系上传者。文件的所有权益归上传用户所有。
- 3. 本站RAR压缩包中若带图纸,网页内容里面会有图纸预览,若没有图纸预览就没有图纸。
- 4. 未经权益所有人同意不得将文件中的内容挪作商业或盈利用途。
- 5. 人人文库网仅提供信息存储空间,仅对用户上传内容的表现方式做保护处理,对用户上传分享的文档内容本身不做任何修改或编辑,并不能对任何下载内容负责。
- 6. 下载文件中如有侵权或不适当内容,请与我们联系,我们立即纠正。
- 7. 本站不保证下载资源的准确性、安全性和完整性, 同时也不承担用户因使用这些下载资源对自己和他人造成任何形式的伤害或损失。
最新文档
- 中日文学关系 知到智慧树网课答案
- 2024军队文职考试合同法
- 2024内部承包经营责任制合同
- 2024业务咨询服务合作协议书范本
- 溶液的形成同步练习-2023-2024学年九年级化学人教版下册
- 江西省宜丰2024年高考数学五模试卷含解析
- 江苏省2021-2022学年十校联考最后数学试题含解析
- 2024人力资源专员年薪合同书
- 2024事业单位聘用合同到期不续签
- 2024买卖墓地合同
- 海康威视监控系统方案
- 为何家会伤人
- 云平台技术应答文件模板
- 陕西省水资源概况课件
- 外墙涂料施工方案
- 2024年高校教师资格证题库附完整答案(夺冠)
- 山东省威海市2023年中考物理试题(附真题答案)
- 数字经济时代新商科人才培养策略
- 抖音认证承诺函
- 医药经理的协同合作和跨部门协调能力
- picc护士进修汇报心得
评论
0/150
提交评论