外文翻译-城市的流动性和城市形态:不同模式的城市扩张产生的社会和环境成本_第1页
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毕业设计外文资料翻译题目城市流动性和城市形态不同模式的城市扩张产生的社会和环境成本学院土木建筑学院专业建筑学班级学生学号指导教师二一一年三月二十八日ECOLOGICALECONOMICS402002199216URBANMOBILITYANDURBANFORMTHESOCIALANDENVIRONMENTALCOSTSOFDIFFERENTPATTERNSOFURBANEXPANSIONROBERTOCAMAGNI,MARIACRISTINAGIBELLI,PAOLORIGAMONTIABSTRACTTHEQUESTIONOFTHEENVIRONMENTALORSOCIALCOSTSOFURBANFORMISINCREASINGLYATTRACTINGATTENTIONINSPATIALPOLICY,BUTSCIENTICDEBATEINTHISELDISOFTENMARREDBYPREJUDICESANDABSTRACTVISIONSEMPIRICALANALYSESAREVERYRARETHEPRESENTSTUDYAIMSATESTABLISHING,INTHEMETROPOLITANAREAOFMILAN,WHETHERDIFFERENTPATTERNSOFURBANEXPANSIONCOULDBEASSOCIATEDWITHSPECICENVIRONMENTALCOSTSINPARTICULAR,FORLANDCONSUMPTIONANDMOBILITYGENERATIONDIFFERENTTYPOLOGIESOFURBANEXPANSIONWEREDENED,ANDANIMPACTINDEXWEIGHTINGDIFFERENTLYJOURNEYTOWORKTRIPSWITHREFERENCETOMODEANDTIMELENGTHWASBUILTATTHEMUNICIPALITYLEVELTHESTATISTICALANALYSISCONRMEDTHEEXPECTEDWASTEFULCHARACTEROFSPRAWLINGDEVELOPMENTPATTERNSINTERMSOFLANDCONSUMPTION,THOUGHSUGGESTINGTHATRECENTURBANDEVELOPMENTISBECOMINGRELATIVELYVIRTUOUSWITHRESPECTTOTHEPASTWITHREFERENCETOTHEMOBILITYGENERATED,HIGHERENVIRONMENTALIMPACTSWEREPROVEDTOBEASSOCIATEDWITHLOWDENSITIES,SPRAWLINGDEVELOPMENT,MORERECENTURBANISATIONPROCESSESANDRESIDENTIALSPECIALISATIONOFTHESINGLEMUNICIPALITIESPUBLICTRANSPORTSEEMSTOBESTRONGLYINUENCED,BOTHINTERMSOFEFCIENCYANDCOMPETITIVENESS,BYTHESTRUCTURALORGANISATIONOFANURBANAREATHEMOREDISPERSEDANDLESSSTRUCTUREDTHEDEVELOPMENT,THELOWERITSLEVELOFEFCIENCYANDCOMPETITIVENESSANDCONSEQUENTLYITSSHAREOFTHEMOBILITYMARKETONTHECONTRARY,TRIPTIMESFORPRIVATETRANSPORTAPPEARTOBECORRELATEDNOTSOMUCHTOURBANDIMENSIONORDENSITYASTOTHEPRESENCEOFRECENTHOUSINGDEVELOPMENT,INDICATINGTHEEMERGENCEOFNEWMODELSOFLIFESTYLEANDMOBILITYWHICHAREVERYDIFFERENTFROMTHOSEOFTHEPAST2002ELSEVIERSCIENCEBVALLRIGHTSRESERVEDKEYWORDSURBANEXPANSIONURBANFORMURBANSUSTAINABILITYPUBLICTRANSPORT1INTRODUCTIONTOGETHERWITHTECHNOLOGIESANDCONSUMPTIONSTYLES,THEFORMOFSETTLEMENTSANDTHEWAYHUMANACTIVITIESAREORGANISEDINGEOGRAPHICALSPACEREPRESENTCRUCIALRESEARCHELDSANDSOURCESOFPREOCCUPATIONASFARASECOLOGICALEQUILIBRIAARECONCERNEDCAMAGNIETAL,1998INFACT,INPRINCIPLE,THERESOURCEEFCIENCYOFDIFFERENTSETTLEMENTPATTERNSISSUBJECTTOWIDEVARIATIONSWITHREFERENCE,ATLEAST,TOTWOSCARCENATURALRESOURCESLANDRESOURCESFORRESIDENTIALUSESANDENERGYRESOURCESFORMOBILITYUSESLANDCONSUMPTIONDEPENDSDIRECTLYONTHERELATIVECOMPACTNESSOFHUMANSETTLEMENTSANDONRESIDENTIALDENSITYENERGYCONSUMPTION,ONTHEOTHERHAND,DEPENDSINDIRECTLYONTHESAMEVARIABLES,VIATHEIRLINKAGEWITHMOBILITYPATTERNSTRIPLENGTHANDMODALCHOICEBETWEENPRIVATEANDPUBLICMEANSTHESTUDYISDIVIDEDINTOTWOMAINPARTSINTHERSTPARTWEANALYSETHETYPICALFEATURESOFCURRENTURBANDEVELOPMENTANDLOOKATTHERESULTSOFSOMERECENTINTERNATIONALEMPIRICALANALYSESONTHECOMPARATIVECOSTSOFDIFFERENTTYPOLOGIESOFURBANDEVELOPMENTSECTION2INTHESECONDPARTWEPRESENTTHEMAINNDINGSOFOUREMPIRICALANALYSESCARRIEDOUTINTHEPROVINCEOFMILANWEDENEANUMBEROFARCHETYPALFORMSOFURBANDEVELOPMENTSECTION31,MEASURETHEASSOCIATEDCONSUMPTIONOFLANDSECTION32ANDTHENCARRYOUTADETAILEDANALYSISOFTHEMOBILITYGENERATEDANDITSENVIRONMENTALCOSTSSECTION332DEVELOPMENTATTHEURBANFRINGEDYNAMICS,INTERPRETATIONSANDEMPIRICALANALYSIS21EMERGINGURBANFORMANDITSRELEANCEFORSUSTAINABLEDEELOPEMENTINEUROPE,THEAREASSURROUNDINGMOSTLARGECITIESHAVEBEENRADICALLYTRANSFORMEDOVERTHELAST20YEARSNOTONLYHASTHEREBEENANINCREASEINGAMOUNTOFBUILTDEVELOPMENT,BUTTHISHASSPREADEXTENSIVELYINFORMSWHICHAREVERYDIFFERENTFROMTHOSECHARACTERISINGTRADITIONALSUBURBANISATION,IEEXPANSIONTHATOCCURREDAROUNDADENSEURBANNUCLEUS,PREVALENTLYTHROUGHEXTENSIONAND/ORRELATIVELYCOMPACTDEVELOPMENTMANYURBANAREAS,ALTHOUGHDEMOGRAPHICALLYSTATIC,ORATTHEMOSTSHOWINGWEAKSIGNSOFPOPULATIONGROWTH,HAVESPREADOUTANDDILUTEDOVERSPACEINAFORMOFDEVELOPMENTWHOSEFEATURESHAVEBEENVERYEFFECTIVELYDESCRIBEDWITHTHETERMSPRAWLLOWDENSITYDEVELOPMENT,EXTENDINGTOTHEEXTREMEEDGEOFTHEMETROPOLITANREGIONANDLOCATEDINARANDOM,LEAPFROGFASHION,SEGREGATEDINSPECIALISEDMONOFUNCTIONALLANDUSES,ANDLARGELYDEPENDENTONTHECARMAYETAL,1998OECD,2000THEREAREMANYCLOSELYINTERRELATEDREASONSFORTHESUCCESSOFTHEDIFFUSEDMETROPOLISASFARASRESIDENTIALLOCATIONISCONCERNED,THEMAINREASONSAPPEARTOBETHEDECLINEINENVIRONMENTALQUALITYOFTHEDENSELYBUILTCITYCENTRE,DUETOTRAFCCONGESTION,POLLUTION,DEGRADATIONOFPUBLICSPACESANDREDUCTIONOFSAFETYCHANGEINLIFESTYLES,DUEINPARTTOTHEINCREASEININCOMES,INFAVOUROFMORESPACIOUSDECENTRALISEDHOUSINGTHEREPLACEMENTOFRESIDENTIALLANDUSEINTHECITYCENTREBYTERTIARYACTIVITIESTHEFACTTHATHOUSINGIMPROVEMENTINTHECITYCENTRECOSTSMORETHANNEWCONSTRUCTIONOUTSIDETHECITYANDTHEHOUSINGSUPPLYSTRATEGIESOFREALESTATEAGENTS,WHICHNDLESSRESISTANCEINTHEMORESPACIOUSOUTOFTOWNAREASTHOSEWHOTAKETHESECONDAPPROACHMAINTAINTHATITISCRUCIALTOINTERVENE,THROUGHTHEADOPTIONOFSECTORALANDSPATIALPLANNINGPOLICIES,TOCONTAINURBANSPRAWLTHEYCONSIDERTHECURRENT,ANDABOVEALL,THEPROBABLEFUTURECOSTSUNDESIRABLE,MAINTAININGTHATTHESEARELIKELYTOGROWEXPONENTIALLYINTHEABSENCEOFCORRECTIVEMEASURESTHEEMERGENCEOFTHETHEMEOFURBANSUSTAINABILITYISANELEMENTWHICH,INRECENTYEARS,HASSTRENGTHENEDTHISSECONDVIEW,STIMULATINGAVARIETYOFREECTIONSANDALSOOPERATIVEINDICATIONSTHERSTAPPROACHISWELL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ENDIXAFORSTATISTICALDETAILSANDDENITIONOFVARIABLESGEOGRAPHICALVARIABLESDISTANCEFROMMILANSOCIOECONOMICVARIABLESPOPULATIONDENSITY,SIZEANDDYNAMICS,AGEOFBUILDINGS,RATIOOFJOBSTORESIDENTPOPULATIONEMP/RESMORPHOLOGYIETHETYPOLOGIESOFURBANDEVELOPMENTPREVIOUSLYDESCRIBED,REDUCEDTOFOURCLASSESINLLINGEXTENSIONEXTENSIONLINEARSPRAWLLARGESCALEPROJECTSSEEAPPENDIXAACCESSIBILITYANDTRANSPORTEFCIENCYCOMPETITIVENESSOFPUBLICTRANSPORT,SHAREOFPUBLICTRANSPORT,AVERAGETRIPTIMEFORPUBLICTRANSPORTTRIPSPUBLICTIMEANDPRIVATETRANSPORTTRIPSPRIVATETIME332FACTORSDETERMININGTHEINTENSITYOFTHEMOBILITYIMPACTTHESPATIALDISTRIBUTIONOFTHEINDICESOFIMPACTINTENSITYWASEXAMINEDUSINGANECONOMETRICANALYSISTOASCERTAINWHETHERTHEREWASASIGNICANTCORRELATIONWITHANYOFTHESELECTEDINDEPENDENTVARIABLESDESCRIBINGTHECHARACTERISTICSOFTHEURBANFORMITISIMPORTANTTONOTEHERETHATUSINGTHESETECHNIQUESINSTEADOFOLSDIDNOTINVOLVE,FOROURMODELANDFOROURAIMS,BIGDIFFERENCESINTHERESULTSTABLE2THEREFORE,ITISPOSSIBLETOSAYTHATTHEINFERENCEBASEDONTHESIMPLEROLSESTIMATORS,WHILENOTCOMPLETELYACCURATEABOVEALLASFARASTHESTANDARDDEVIATIONOFTHEESTIMATORSISCONCERNED,ISNOTMISLEADINGFORTHISREASON,INTHEREMAINDEROFTHEPAPERONLYOLSESTIMATORSWILLBEDISPLAYED,EVENTHOUGHWEACKNOWLEDGETHATMOREEFCIENTESTIMATORSCOULDBEFOUND,INPARTICULARIFWEWEREINTERESTEDINTESTINGHYPOTHESESABOUTTHEVALUEOFTHEPARAMETERSTHEOUTCOMEISSUMMARISEDBRIEYASFOLLOWSASIGNICANTINVERSERELATIONSHIPWASFOUNDBETWEENTHEINDEXMEASURINGTHEMOBILITYIMPACTANDNETPOPULATIONDENSITYDENSITYOFTHEBUILTUPAREA,INLINEWITHTHEEXPECTATIONSEXPRESSEDINTHEINTERNATIONALLITERATURETOGETHERWITHTHESIZEOFTHEURBANAREASINTERMSOFABSOLUTEPOPULATION,DENSITYAPPEARSTOHAVEMAINLYANINDIRECTEFFECTONTHEMOBILITYIMPACT,THROUGHITSINUENCEONTHEAVERAGETRIPTIMEOFPUBLICTRANSPORTANDHENCEONTHEMODALSPLITOFCOMMUTERTRIPSINFAVOUROFPUBLICTRANSPORTASIGNICANTRELATIONSHIPALSOEXISTSWITHTHEVARIABLESREPRESENTINGDEMOGRAPHICGROWTHRATEANDTHEAVERAGEAGEOFHOUSINGINBOTHCASES,THEIMPACTINDEXINCREASEDWITHTHEDYNAMISMOFTHECOMMUNESCONCERNEDINOTHERWORDS,HIGHVALUESWEREASSOCIATEDWITHCOMMUNESWITHARAPIDGROWTHOFPOPULATIONOVERTHETENYEARPERIOD19811991ANDALSOTHOSEWITHNEWERHOUSING,IEAREASOFRECENTEXPANSIONTHECOEFCIENTRELATINGTOTHEDISTANCEFROMTHECENTREOFMILANISSMALLINTERMSOFABSOLUTEVALUES0006POINTSPERKM,BUTISSIGNICANTLYLESSTHANZERO,INDICATINGTHEGREATERAUTONOMYOFTHETOWNSINTHEMOSTEXTERNALPARTSOFTHEPROVINCEANDASPATIALSTRUCTUREOFSETTLEMENTSSIMILARTOTHATOFASELFCONTAINEDINDUSTRIALDISTRICTFOLLOWINGTHESUBDIVISIONINTOGROUPSPROPOSEDINTHEPREVIOUSPARAGRAPH,THREEDUMMYVARIABLESWEREINTRODUCEDTOALLOWFORINTERCEPTSHIFTTHEANALYSISOFTHERELATIVECOEFCIENTSMAKESITPOSSIBLETOESTABLISHTHEFOLLOWINGRANKINGININCREASINGORDEROFIMPACTINLLEXTENSION,EXTENSIONLINEARDEVELOPMENT,SPRAWL,LARGESCALEPROJECTSNALLY,ANANALYSISWASMADEOFTHEROLEOFTHEEMPLOYMENT/RESIDENTSRATIO,AVARIABLETOWHICHTHELITERATUREATTRIBUTESCONSIDERABLEIMPORTANCEINCONNECTIONWITHMOBILITYDEMANDTHISRELATIONSHIPCANBECONSIDEREDANIND

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