法国经济的优缺点原版.docx

Overview of the French economyEconomic news January 2016France is the only major Western Europe economy in whichunemployment continues inexorably to rise - reaching 10.8% of the workforce at the end of 2015. President Hollande had made it an election pledge to start reducing unemployment by the start of 2014, but it keeps rising. In his New Year 2016 message, he pledged that 2016 will start to see a fall in unemployment. at last. Falling fuel prices and a small reduction in payroll taxes (les charges des entreprises) should generate new jobs; but volatility in world markets and fears of a continuing downturn in the Chinese economy could well counteract this. February 2015 Parliament votes Loi MacronEconomics minister Emmanuel Macron - a Socialist but also a former Rotschildsbanker - has pushed through some new measures to help the French economy improve. But there is nothing game-changing in Macrons reforms. They will allow French shops to open up to 12 Sundays a year (instead of 5), and allow shops in key tourist locations, such as parts of Paris, to open 7/7 and up to midnight. They make a timid start at reforming some of Frances hidebound regulated professions, but powerful lobbies have already derailed reform of some of these. In spite of its limited scope, the Macron Law caused massive controversy on the left of Franch politics, and had to be pushed through the French Parliament without a vote, using the very contestedArticle 49-3of the French Constitution. The Macron Law follows other business-friendly measures adopted in 2014, including a cut in employers social insurance contributions(down to zero for employees paid on minimum wage) and a programmed fall in Frances high corporate tax rates (down to 28% by 2020). But while these measures will certainly reduce the cost of doing business in France, they are not the big bang that many in the business community are calling for. December 2014New minister for the economy Emmanuel Macron announces the first steps in a series of projects to free up the French economy. Are the winds of economic change really starting to blow in France? SeeNews.Analysis- 2014 : SeeCan France change ?March 2014Unemployment reaches new record high: almost 3.35 million out of work in France.President Hollandes main election pledge was to cut unemployment massively and durably; but it has increased by about 140,000 since he took office.The public deficit in 2014 was 4.3% of GDP, meaning that the government missed its target of 4.1%, and seems unlikely to reach the EU-imposed target of 3% in 2015.Public spending in France, among the highest levels in the world, reached 57.1% in 2013.(Figures from INSEE - the French government statistical office)November 2013.Le ras lbol fiscal taxation in France has got out of hand.Analysis: SeeFrench tax crisis 2013 There is a popular view, often seen or heard in the media, that the French economy is somehow vastly different in its operation from other modern economies. France is even sometimes depicted as a something close to a rogue economy, where workers are constantly on strike, businesses are held hostage to all powerful unions, and free enterprise is virtually impossible. Like most myths, the rogue economy myth - largely perpetrated by people with an axe to grind, or by outside commentators who have never set foot in the country - has only a little grounding in reality; but like all myths it is a caricature where weaknessesare blown out of all proportion, and strengths swept under the carpet. For all its weaknesses - and its strengths - the French economy is alive and well, and performing above average in G20 terms. Standard & Poors downgraded Frances rating from AAA to AA+ in January 2012,Moodys followed in November 2012, andFitch, the third of the main ratings agencies, finally downgraded Frances rating in July 2013. Since 2013 there has been an increasing consensus, even in France, that the French economy is in the doldrums. While president Hollande keeps reaffirming that things are going to get better, few people in France believe him; even positive figures are greeted with a certain scepticism. As the situation fails to improve, there has been much soul-searching in France, concerning the countrys economic problems. In April 2013, the French newsmagazinele Pointran an issue headlinedAre the French lazy?To which the answer provided was a resounding yes - backed up with international comparisons showing that a) the French work shorter hours than other major European economies (1,679 hours a year, compared to 1904 hours in Germany), b) they retire earlier than people in other European economies (average retirement age 60.3 years in France, compared to 62.6 in Germany, and 64.1 in the UK), and c) they take more holidays than people in most other major European holidays. 36 days per year, the same as the British, but 7 days more than the Germans. Le Point concludes with the observation that the number of hours work per year per inhabitant in France (total number of hours worked divided by total population) is among the lowest of any developed economy - 11% lower than in Germany, 22% less than in Scandinavia, and almost 40% less than South Korea. It is not rocket-science to work out that this comparison is very alarming for the French economy. A simple application of essential economics, as first outlined by Adam Smith in theWealth of Nations, over 230 years ago, suggests that the French economy is in a very parlous situation, compared to other developed nations.Comparing national economies According to the OECD, France in 2008 was the worlds fifth economic power, behind the USA, China, Japan and Germany, and just ahead of the UK. But ranking national economies in a table is not always as clear-cut as it might seem. In monetary terms, the relative value of national economies varies with exchange rate fluctuations which are partly due to currency speculation, not to economic performance. In order to evacuate the exchange rate variable from international economic comparisons, an alternative and more objective way of comparing economies is to do so at purchasing power parity - a system that takes into account the cost of living in each country. In terms ofGDP(Gross Domestic Product) at PPPrates , France in 2008 was in 9th position, below the UK, Germany, India and Russia. In terms of GDP per inhabitant at PPP rates, France is going down. In the world ranking table (which includes micro nations such as San Marino, the Cayman Islands or Liechtenstein), France fell from 39th place in 2008 to 41st place in 2009. When such microeconomies are excluded, France ranked 19th among major industrial nations.Yet all is not doom and gloom. While the French may work less than people in other countries, there are plenty of people in France who put in very long hours - notably the self-employed. And compared on a hourly basis, rather than an annual basis, French productivity is high ; in hourly terms, the French are more productive than the British and than many other Europeans - the trouble is that they dont work enough hours.The need forreform Like all developed economies, France has suffered since 2007 from the effects of the global recession; but the effects in France have been partly cushioned by a more cautious banking and investment sector, and by a tradition of state intervention in the economy. In addition, France is world-leader when it comes to the proportion of the labour force working in public sector jobs: 25% in 2005 - few of whom were affected by the economic downturn. While the French economy has not run out of control like the economies of Greece, Italy, Spain or Portugal, February 2015 Parliament votes Loi MacronEconomics ministthere are many in France who fear that if another European economy were to falter, it will be France. That has not happened, and given the undoubted strengths that the French economy has, probably will not happen. But it will depend on how much political will there is to get the French economy back on the right track, and make it competitive again on a global scale. Up to now that political will has been singularly unforthcoming in France. Perhaps, in the past thirty years, the great misfortune of the French economy has been the singular failure of Frances political leaders, of both left and right, to take heed of the warning signs, such as Frances endemically high level of unemployment. The last time a French government balanced the books was in 1980, under Prime MinisterRaymond Barre,a professor of economics. Since then, even as the deficits have been mounting,governments have continued to tax more and spend even more, to the point where public spending in France reached the level of 55.9% of GDP in 2010 - compared to 49% for the UK and 45.6% in Germany (OCDE figures), a level considerably higher than that of any other major economy. Even under President Sarkozy, a conservative president who vowed to reform French instutions and get the economy going again, very little was done. Like all recent French presidents, Sarkozy, afraid of confronting too many vested interest groups, failed to take the strong measures needed to reduce deficits and rein in public spending. While he did have the strength to push through unpopular pension reforms, and try to reduce the cost of government, he did not take any of the drastic measures that the French economy needs, if it is to start moving in the right direction again. These include major and unpopular reforms of French labour laws (which will be fought tooth and nail by the trade unions), a thorough overhall of Frances byzantine and multi-layered local government system (which will be fought tooth and nail by all those with a vested interest in keeping their bit of local power), and severe reductions in Frances generous social security allowances (which will be fought by the unions, and by all those who benefit from the systems current largesse). Reforming France is very difficult - to the point at which some are saying that nothing less than a new French revolution is needed. In July 2013, the IMF gave a cautious welcome to efforts being made by the Hollande government to bring down the deficits and regenerate the French economy; but this was qualified by a warning that more should be done to cut public spending, rather than raise taxes. Hollande has pledged to go easy on taxes, to avoid placing any further uncompetitive burden on French industry; but there are those in the his administration who do not see priorities in the same light.Perceivedstrengths of the French economyIn many sectors, the French economy is among the strongest in the world. France is among the leading industrial economies in the automotive, aerospace, and railways sectors, as well as in cosmetics, luxury goods, insurance, pharmaceuticals, telecoms, power generation, defence, agriculture and hospitality. France is also the worlds leading tourist destination at least in terms of numbers, though not in terms of tourist spending. French companies operate worldwide; they run some of the big red buses in London, as well as trains and bus services all over Europe, they run supermarkets on four continents, including over 200 hypermarkets in China, they produce some of the pharmaceuticals, beauty products, and dairy products people use in their daily lives worldwide; and much more besides. Regarding its labor market, France has one of the highest levels of graduates, and the highest number of science graduates per 1000 workers of any European country. In the years following the second world war, the French economy developed massively from a largely agrarian economy with over 40% of the population still living on the land, into a modern industrial economy with world-class coprorations and business leaders. In the years 1945 - 1975, known as les trente glorieuses, the French economy grew by an average of 4.1% in terms of GDP per inhabitant, far faster than the USA or the UK though slower than Germany or Japan. The French state - which for most of this time was in the hands of Conservatives - played an active role through the establishment of a series of four year plans (Contrats de plan), whereby the state set economic targets and economic priorities, but left it up to private enterprise to achieve or apply them. For example, the rapid development of the French motorway system was achieved (and is still being achieved) by public investment offset by the sale of long-term concessions to private or semi-private companies to operate and maintain them. Between 1945 and 1986, political leaders from de Gaulle (a conservative) to Mitterrand (a socialist) embarked on policies of nationalisation and state intervention. For de Gaulle, nationalisation was seen as a tool of economic development, guaranteeing a stableenvironment for key sectors of the French economy, but also ensuring support from his opponents on the left. Car-maker Renault was nationalised by de Gaulle in 1945 as much to help it recover from the war, as to placate the Communist opposition and the unions. For Mitterrand, nationalisation was ideological. During his first presidency, from 1981, Mitterrand initiated a series of nationalisations in a range of different sectors, including banking, insurance and pharmaceuticals. However, for his second presidency, he advocated the famous ni-ni doctrine (the neither nor doctrine), proposing neither nationalisation nor privatisation. In actual fact, this was a way of admitting the failure of his previous policy; during Mitterands second presidency, France embarked on a wholescale policy of privatisation, which continued during the Chirac presidency, reaching its peak under the government of socialist prime ministerLionel Jospin. Yet beyond the issue of nationalisation or privatisation, the French state has maintained an above-average ability to intervene in economic affairs, remaining a major shareholder in utilities such as EDF where it has a majority holding, orFrance Telecom (Orange), in which it has a 27% holding. As a result of its hands-on approach to economic management, France has been able to ensure some remarkable economic success stories. Among the most visible of these is Frances world-leading success in the field of rail infrastructure. France was the first country in the world to propose, plan and set up a dedicated high-speed rail network; today the country can boast the worlds second most extensivehigh-speed rail network (after Spain), one which runs without interruption from the North Sea to the Mediterranean, and east-west from near the German border to the lower reaches of the Loire. State intervention in the automotive sector has helped Renault become one of the main world players; the French government still holds a 15% stake in Renault which, in turn, is the leading investor (almost 45%) in Nissan. When it comes down to hard facts, critics of state intervention in the French economy have to tread carefully.Perceivedweaknesses of the French economy Paradoxically, the extent of the French states involvement in the economy hasproved to be one of its main weaknesses, as well as one of its main strengths. In recent decades, the development of state favors and aid in certain economic sectors, along with the cost of major infrastructure programs and social services, have led to a huge increase in the budget of the French state. To finance its programs, the French government, like all others, has had to resort to increased taxation; but in France, a larger than usual proportion of this taxation has fallen on business, rather than on private individuals. French business is currently burdened by the worlds highest level of payroll tax (cotisations sociales), which at 43% are far higher than in any other country. The next highest rates are found in Spain and the Czech Republic (30%), while businesses in the UK pay a payroll tax (NI contributions) of just 11%, and those in the USA just 5%. In an increasingly global economy, this disparity isdamaging for French industry, and is one of the perceived causes of endemic high unemployment in France. It has also led the French economy to suffer from offshoring, the export of jobs and manufacturing capacity to low-wage countries. Until recently the fact that the burden on employers of payroll taxes is almostfour timeshigher than that of NI contributions in the UK has not crippled French industry in the way that advocates of low payroll taxes would like to imagine; however signs are that this is changing. In mid 2012, French automobile giant Peugeot announced a massive workforce reduction programme, including the suppression of 8,000 jobs in France: with hourly total labour costs in France now running at 34.2 per hour, among the highest in Europe (sourceEurostat) and higher than any other major industrialized economy, the outlook is not good, especially with the new Socialist government set to increase overall labour costs rather than reduce them. High tax burdens are particularly felt by small businesses. However numerous counter-measures have been introduced by successive governments to offset their effect; these include lower levels of payroll tax on workers paid at minimum wage, tax breaks for the hiring of young employees or apprentices, aids for employers in certain high-unemployment areas, and more. In all there are dozens of forms of aid available to companies and that is a problem in itself, as finding ones way around the maze can be a daunting task. The system needs to employ hundreds of civil servants just for administration. Simplification is one of