世界经济总结资料.doc

_World EconomyTOPIC Globalisation-References:Essay-Globalisation and Economic GrowthEssay-Globalisation and the Rural PoorEssay-Is Globalisation in DangerPPT-introduction.pptPPT-developing countries.pptPPT-transformation economies.pptTextbook-Ch9 Developing countriesTextbook-Ch10 The Transformation countries-全球化的定义Liberalization of trade, investment, production, and other factors.全球化的成因1. The first and perhaps more profound influence is technological change.2. Multilateral trade negotiations resulted in the continuing liberalization of trade and investment.3. Globalization has also been promoted by the widespread liberalization of investment transactions and the development of international financial markets.4. Falls in transport and communications costs.全球化的优点1.Productivity increases faster when countries produce goods and services in which they have a comparative advantage. Living standards can increase more rapidly.2. Global competition and cheap imports keep a constraint on prices, so inflation is less likely to disrupt economic growth.3. An open economy promotes technological development and innovation, with fresh ideas from abroad.4. Jobs in export industries tend to pay about 15% more than jobs in import-competing industries.5. Unfettered capital movements provide the US access to foreign investment and maintain low interest rates.全球化的缺点Globalization can make the domestic economy vulnerable to disturbances initiated overseas.1.Millions of Americans have lost jobs because of imports or shifts in production abroad. Most find new jobs that pay less.2. Millions of other Americans fear getting laid off, especially at those firms operating in Import-competing industries.3.Workers face demands of wage concessions from their employers, which often threaten to export jobs abroad if wage concessions are not agreed to.4. Besides blue-collar jobs, service and white-collar jobs are increasingly vulnerable to operations being sent overseas.5.American employees can lose their competitiveness when companies build state-of-the-art factories in low-wage countries, making them as productive as those in the US.全球化导致“分化大时代”的到来？I dont think so.The divergence claim is weakened.The world income inequality peaked around 1970 has declined somewhat in the era of unprecedented globalisation since then.This outcome has been driven primarily by the much improved growth performance of two developing countries,China and India.全球化对经济增长是否有利？There would be a cautious response. First,distance still mattered.Trade flows, technology flows, financial flows and capital movements are all much reduced the greater is the distance between countries.Moreover, distance from markets and sources of supply is highly correlated with income levels. Second,institutional quality also has a very strong influence on growth and levels of income, particularly with respect to capital markets, both as a key influence on growth performance and in terms of facilitating successful participation in globalised finance. At the same time, there clearly is an important role for institutional diversity in rapid catch-up growth.全球化使收入不平等减弱甚至最终趋同？Lucas argues that:1 While the 20th century was marked by widening international income inequality, the 21st century will see this reversed.2 While capital is fully mobile internationally, international income inequalities should be rapidly reduced as capital flows from rich to poor countries.3 The process of economic catch-up and convergence ensues which exhibits an inverse correlation between initial income levels and subsequent growth of real income per head.Lucas model:The model is shown to exhibit rising international inequality of incomes in the 20th followed by a strong turnaround in the 21st century.That is to say,countries that start growing later have faster initial growth and then experience growth proportional to income gap with leader.Lucas criticize:a.The new economic geography school sees the process of development not as the steady convergence of the poor to the rich, but rather as a rapid transition of a select few who are favoured by location.b.The new institutional economic history view pioneered that institutions are crucial in informing decisions to invest and/or to innovate. But the tradition also stresses that bad institutions are frequently persistent and can be virtually impossible to reform because of path dependency. In the absence of well-defined property rights,enforceable contracts and government, the neoclassical catch-up process will be aborted.c.Government also has a crucial role to play in combatting coordination failures and instability in the financial system, both of which potentially undermine investment.d.The distribution of the gains from international trade deserve some attention.A limiting case would be one of immiserising growth in which increases in productive potential were more than offset by declines in export prices and loss of purchasing power over imports.全球化对农业的影响Globalisation declined information and communications costs,trade protectionism,tariff and non-tariff barriers.While the expansion of agricultural trade has lagged,reflecting the generally lower income elasticities of demand for primary goods,and its share in total world trade has been fallen.In short,agricultural liberalisation has so far made limited progress.1 Agricultural liberalisation model is not working well because it is noe being applied,i.e. because of extensive continued protectionism within OECD.2 Similarly,within many developing countries liberalisation remains partial,industrial protectionism and other other anti-agricultural biases persist,and market outcomes often differ markedly from the theoretical ideal.3 Any residual tendency for the forces of globalisation to favour developing country labour-intensive agriculture tends to be offset by biases in technological progress in favour of temperate crops and capital- and skill-intensity.全球化对贫困的影响Globalisation is liable to change the welfare of the rurul poor by influencing the efficiency of resource use,the pace of economic growth,and the distribution of income,through their impact on technologies,on the security of livelihoods,on policies and on the provision of public goods.Ways of affecting the welfare of rural poor:static effciency effects;dynamic growth effects;technological progress;distributional effects;insecurity effects;policy effects.GOODs:There is a huge potential benefit,for example,from an acceleration of growth following from fuller integration into a rapidly expanding market for exports.There are benefits to be had from more productive resource uses,from improved access to technological advances and from policy improvements induced by exogenous pressures.BADs:Against these,there are very real dangers that the rural poor will be left behind;that they will not have access to the knowledge and other assets necessary for success in an increasingly competitive world;that food security may be reduced;that continuing political and policy biases will diminish their prospects of sharing in the potential benefits;and that globalisation will be associated with widening income disparties.There are some determinants of outcomes:exogenous factors;market access;market failures;the assets of the rural poor.A variety of factors prevent the rural poor from responding as well as they might to market opportunities and heightened competition:the forces limiting their market access(poor information,weak institutions,poor infrastructure,etc.) and their inadequate command over assets that would raise their market effectiveness,notably education,land,water and finance.A tendency towards intensifying inequalities of income and wealth,as well as heighted instability and uncertainly,prevent general economic progress from being translated fully into improvements in the well-being of the poor.对全球化的威胁Ideas;Interests;Institutional Relations;Instability.国际金融危机及其原因Big problems in international financial system:from dollar shortage to dollar glut.Reasons for U.S. chronic international deficit:too much inflation at home;overgenerosity in the aid and military programs;lack of trust in the dollar;the rapid growth of productivity abroad;high investment abroad by American firms;quadrupled price of OPEC oil.全球化和区域一体化的关系1 Regional integration and globalisation are staggered to promote each other. Regional integration is part of globalisation, globalisation is the development direction of regional integration.2 Globalisation has a broader scope than regional integration, and regional integration has a higher level than the globalisation.3 The strengthening of regional integration will improve the position and enhance the force of the members in the process of globalisation.4 Regional integration and globalisation are both the means of transnational optimal allocation. As a result of the regional blocs have similar geography,politics,income,development level and economic advantages,they are more easy to achieve the free movement of factors of production,accordingly paving the way for globalisation.发达国家二战后格局发展历程Stage 1 recovery of world economy (1945-1952)Characteristics:increasing GNP growth for main market economy countriesStage 2 high-speed growth of world economy (1953-1973)Characteristics:high-speed growthReasons: third scientific and technological revolution;adjustment of production relations.Stage 3 stagflation (1973-1982)Characteristics:lower GDP growth rate and higher CPIReasons:deficit finance; debt increase; monetary supply increase; increasing petroleum price; surplus production capability; international facors.Stage 4 economic readjustment and reform period (1983)Characteristics:reduce government expenditure;lower tax rate;reduce monetary supply;enterprise privately owned;industrial structure readjustment发展中国家的定义Underdeveloped economically, in the transition from traditional economy to modernezed economy.In a broader sense, the rest of the nations and regions except developed countries.发展中国家的特征1 Undeveloped productivity: agriculture; industry; science &technology2 Dualist structure3 Imperfect market system and mechanism4 National capitalism5 Dependence on DCs发展中国家的不发达的原因1 Excessive population growth2 Missing institutions3 Lack of capital formation4 No entrepreneurship5 National debt6 Vicious circle7 Different endowment conditions发展中国家的发展策略1 Import substitute(inward)Definition:This policy was directed at replacing imports by domestic goods.Measures:Protectionist instruments:import duties &import licenses;Control on foreign exchange;Revalue domestic currency;Preferential policies for new industries.Performance:Faster development of national industries;Lack of scale of economies, difficult to access international market;Less export of agricultural products, decreasing exchange foreign income;Increased demands for imported equipments, technology & parts, imbalanced payment of account.Countries and outcomes:Latin America,failed.2 Export diversification(outward)Definition:This policy was to expose to export sectors to international competition and diversify exports.Measures:Loosen trade restriction;Labor-intensive products to capital-intensive & technology-intensive products;Flexible trading system with government and non-government organizations involved;Found export processing areas.Performance:Increase interest rate;Improve the quality of education;Government-guided management system;Combination of economic growth &reasonable distribution of income.Countries and outcomes:Asia,succeeded.转型国家的定义Countries gave up central planning and switched over to a market economy approach.转型国家的特征1 Institutional framework: Law of contract Law of enterprises Property rights Two-tier banking system2 Macroeconomic stabilization: Monetary stabilization: inflation; currency reform and convertibility; tight budget restrain; reduction of government budget deficits3 Real adjustment of firms: Start of micro-reforms: Autonomy of firms Abolition of the government export monopoly Markets instead of central planning Free market entry Implementation of micro-reforms: Freeing of prices (on commodity and factor markets) Free trade, no subsidies for tradable goods Commercialization of firms Privatization of enterprises New enterprises转型国家经济发展的J曲线效应The transformation of a centrally planned economy involves a collapse of national output.Reasons:1 A crucial reason for this breakdown is that the capital stock of the transformation country that was obsolete.Therefore,the reform countries have to rebuild their capital stock.But it is:time-costing;involving adjustment costs;existing human capital integrated.2 institutional vacuum at the beginning.转型国家的经济政策1 Privitization:mainly coupon privitization2 The tightening of the budget restraint:transformation countries are often characterized by high budget deficits.3 Current account deficits;4 Inflation.- TOPIC International Institutions-References:PPT-international institutions.pptPPT-WTO &international trade policy.pptTextbook-Ch14 International InstitutionsTextbook-Ch5 International trade policy-IMF的目标1 Convertibility:The IMF determined the circumstances in which countries made their national currencies convertible with other currencies.2 The exchange rate regime:The IMF decided on the ways in which currency values were to be corrected,and the choice to be made between fixed and flexible exchange rates.3 Balance of payments adjustment:The IMF resolved how balance of payments surpluses and deficits were to be accommodated between countries.4 Reserve assets (first SDRs):The IMF held reserves from which debtor countries could borrow in limited quantities.In 1970 the first special drawing rights(SDRs) were allocated to memebers,and IMF is a large holder of gold reserves.5 International management:The IMF provided machinery for consultation and collaboration on international monetary problems.改革后IMF的角色1 Still had a role to play in relation to convertibility, exchange rates & balance of payments adjustment.2 Responsibility of ensuring that:not engage in destabilising speculation over exchange rates;not attempt to influence artificially the value of exchange rates in order to gain a trading advantage.斯蒂格利茨对IMF改革的提案To disclose the poverty and unemployment impact of its conditionality requirement;To pay more attention to improving safety nets in vulnerable countries;To deal with financial crisis is through bankruptcy,not through IMF-financed bailout of creditors;Responses to financial crisis in developing and transition economies need to be placed within the social and political context.华盛顿共识的主要内容The emphasis is on market-friendly economic reform.For the IMF the most important aspects of reform are still geared to stabilization,i.e. Fiscal and monetary austerity; Exchange rate liberalisation; Relaxation of controls on trade; Relaxation of controls on capital movementsWB的目标1 Changed substantially since its founding to finance post-war reconstruction in continental Europe;granting loans to developing countries;2 It borrows on world markets and lends to needy countries for development purposes.WB和IMF理论上的区别Theoretical difference of the IMF & WB:WB-the institution which provides long-term development finance for developing and transition economies at relatively low rates of interest;IMF-the institution which provides developing and transitional countries with short-term finance to tide over balance of payments problems.WB的发展框架Require partnershipLocalizationUrbanizationDevelopment challenges, principally poverty, hunger, ill-health, lack of housing & illiteracyGATT的目标Its objective was to prevent a return to the protectionist measures which had so damaged world trade during the 1930s.乌拉圭回合的主要条款Main provisions in Uruguay Round:The multifibre arrangement (MFA)to be phased out;Agriculture to be brought within the provisions of GATT;rules to cover intellectual property rights(IPRs);for the 1st time to cover services;voluntary export restraints(VERs) to be phase out.WTO的成立The final act of the Uruguay Round established a formal organisation called the WTO to replace GATT.This is generally considered to be the most important achievement of the Uruguay Round. WTO和GATT的区别WTO framework is superior to GATT:a single undertaking with a unified legal basis( c.f. merely a series of multilateral trading agreements);clear surveillance mechanisms to oversee trade policy;provisions for the WTO to consult with the IMF and the World Bank;all countries within WTO agree to abide by the rules(c.f. provisional accession protocols).WTO对贸易集团无歧视的看法Ways in which trade blocs can be made as non-discriminatory as possible:required to cut their tariffs against outsiders to the lowest level of any member of the trade bloc;obliged to notify the WTO well in advance;the WTO should monitor existing trade blocs very closely.WTO的最惠国原则WTOs MFN principle:trade barriers should be lowered equally and without discrimination for all foreign trading partners.It has two deviations:special treatment for developing countries;permitting trade blocs involving industrialized co