跨国公司眼中最具投资价值中国城市.ppt

跨国公司眼中最具投资价值的中国城市 The Chinese Cities with the Most Investment Potential in the Eyes of Multinational Corporations 案例：一个城市、一个产业 Case Study: 1 City + 1 Industry,傅志山 Fu Chi-Shan 2007年6月15日,中国社会科学院产业与企业竞争力研究中心理事副秘书长 中营传媒CEO 、中国经济学人发行官、行情总编辑、中华商务网产业顾问,Director & Deputy Secretary, Industries & Enterprises Competitiveness Research Center of CASS “CB Media” CEO, “China Economist” D. Officer, “CB Insight” Editor-in-Chief, “ChinaCCM” Consultant,大背景：中国工业化发展阶段,Background: Chinas Industrial Process,目前中国是世界最具吸引力的投资地之一，但由于中国幅员辽阔，地区间差异较大，因而中国不同区域投资环境有较大的差异。 为了帮助跨国公司更好的选择投资地点，也为了帮助中国的各城市更好的改善投资环境，由金碚教授主持，中国社会科学院产业与企业竞争力研究中心联合中国经济学人杂志 ，与中营传媒共同开展了“跨国公司眼中最具投资价值的城市”研究 。,项目缘起,China is the one of the most attractive investment destinations in the world today. But due to Chinas expanse of territories and regional disparities, different regions vary greatly in terms of attraction to foreign investment. For better, helping the Multinational Corporations to select the investment location, as well as to help Chinese cities to further improve investment climate, Professor Jin Bei lead the “Industries & Enterprises Competitiveness Research Center of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences”, “China Economist” magazine, and “China Business Media” have jointly launched a study on “The Chinese Cities with the Most Investment Potential in the Eyes of Multinational Corporations”,Genesis,研究分三部分及测度三个因素,第一部分是中国各城市对跨国公司的投资吸引力的研究； 第二部分是中国国家级开发区对跨国公司的投资吸引力的研究； 第三部分是跨国公司问卷调查。,对外资吸引 力的潜力,对外资的 绝对吸引力,对外资的 相对吸引力,对外资的吸引力 三个因素,Research in 3 parts & 3 Dimensions,1 part is research on the Investment Attraction of each Chinese City on multinational corporations； 2 part is research on the Investment Attraction of Chinas national Development Zones on multinational corporations； 3 part is conclusions drawn from Questionnaires to multinational corporations.,Potential attraction,Absolute attraction,Relative attraction,3 Dimensions of Attraction to Foreign Investment,1) 计算监测城市数（设为N）； 2) 计算所有监测城市某一指标(以外商实际投资为例)的平均值； 3) 计算所有监测城市外商实际投资的标准差； 4) 计算某一监测城市（假设为城市i）外商实际投资的标准值； 5) 重复第4步计算所有监测城市外商实际投资的标准值； 6) 重复2到5步计算所有监测城市其他指标的标准值； 7) 将城市各指标的标准值乘以该指标权重后相加，得到每个城市吸引力的标准值；,我们首先将被监测城市的每一指标进行标准化处理，指标的原始数据经过标准化处理后称为”指标标准值”。各”指标标准值”与”指标权重”相乘后可以直接相加，从而得出”综合吸引力的标准值”。,城市吸引力的计算方法,First of all, we standardize every original indicator of a monitored city into a ”standard value”. Multiply the standard value of each indicator by ”indicator weight”, & add up each result to calculate the ”standard value of comprehensive attraction”.,Calculation Method,1) Calculate the number of monitored cities (N)； 2) Calculate the average value of a certain indicator of all cities under monitoring (take the example of actual foreign investment)； 3) Calculate the standard deviation of actual foreign investment of all cities under monitoring； 4) Calculate the standard value of actual foreign investment in a certain city under monitoring (suppose “City i”)； 5) Repeat the fourth step to calculate the standard value of actual foreign investment of all cities under monitoring； 6) Repeat the calculations from step 2 to step 5 to calculate the standard values of other indicators of all monitored cities； 7) Multiply each indicators standard value by indicator weight to calculate the standard value of each citys attraction；,第一步，综合吸引力前50强首选成为入选城市； 第二步，在第一步中没有入选城市中绝对吸引力前50强的城市成为入选城市； 第三步，将省会城市作为入选城市；,最具吸引力城市产生办法,我们计算了我国目前地级以上共286个城市的吸引力。我们通过以下方面确定了最终入围的108个城市。,经过以上三个步骤，我们一共选出了108个城市作为最具吸引力城市。,1. pick the top 50 of Comprehensive Attraction； 2. pick the top 50 cities of Absolute Attraction left from first round； 3. pick Provincial Capitals；,Method for the Assessment of the Most Attractive Cities,We have calculated the attraction of 286 Chinese cities. 108 cities have been selected through the following method.,Through the above three steps, we have picked a total of 108 cities to be the most Attractive Investment Cities.,108最具吸引力城市,108 Most Attractive Cities,区位优势仍旧重要,最具吸引力城市区域分布数据说明从总体上分析，目前中国最具投资吸引力城市仍旧分布在我国的东部，上述数据也表明我国东部地区目前的区位优势，以及改革开放的先行优势目前仍旧对本地区吸引投资有巨大的作用。,最具投资价值的城市区域分布图,Regional Advance is still Important,From the Regional Distribution Data of the Most Attractive Cities, we conclude: at present, Chinas Most Attractive Cities still distributed in the Eastern Region. These data also show the advantage of location in Chinas Eastern Region, and the “Reform and Open” policy to the first advantage is now still in these region, it play an important role to attract investment .,同处于东(中、西)部不同省份入选城市数有较大差异。 这一方面说明外商投资有较大的区域聚集效应，另一方面也表示地理区位不是唯一决定一个城市对外资是否具有吸引力的因素。 同处一个省份有的城市入选，而有的城市没入选，这本身就说明区位因素最多只是决定外资是否在本地投资的一个因素。 一个城市有很大的能动性来提升自己的吸引力，宣传自己的吸引力，进而成为最具吸引力的城市。,城市有能力提升自己的吸引力,Different Province has different no. of cities in the list, although they are in the same region. This indicates that on one hand , foreign investment has a great Location Gathering Effect, and on the other hand, Regional is not the single most important factor in decide a citys Attraction to Foreigner. The fact that in the same province, some cities listed while some are not, indicates that Location is just one of the factors in Foreign Investment Considerations. Therefore, every city may exercise a lot of its own Inventive & promotion to increase their attraction.,Province,Cities are capable to enhance their own attraction,城市综合吸引力20强,目前对外资吸引力最强的城市仍旧主要分布在东部地区；在综合吸引力前20强城市除武汉属于中部地区以外，其他的城市均属于东部地区。 东部19 中部 1 西部 0,Top 20 Comprehensive Attraction Cities,The Top 20 Most Attractive Foreign Investment destinations all locate in eastern region; except Wuhan. Eastern Region 19 Central Region 1 Western Region 0,城市吸引力潜力20强,吸引力潜力衡量了一个城市吸引外资的变化，从而能表明目前一个城市对外资吸引力的潜力，也预示一个城市吸引力变化的趋势。 城市对跨国公司吸引力潜力20强中,中部12座，东部5座，西部3座。 从上面的数据可以看出，目前中国最具潜力的城市主要分布在我国中部地区，这预示目前跨国公司的投资正在从我国的东部向中部进行转移。,Top 20 Potential Attraction Cities,The Potential Attractiveness of a city measured Changes to attract foreign investment, thus indicates that the current potential, also the trends. The top 20 cities: Central 12, Eastern 5, Western 3. From above data, we conclude that at present, the most potential cities are mainly distributed in Chinas Central Region. This indicates that the current Multinational Companies are investing transfer from the Eastern to Central.,特别说明：潜力与绝对吸引力无关,可能有些人会认为：是否由于中部地区的原来的基础较差，所以成長就快？ 潜力较低是否由于基础较差大？ 我们对所有监测的城市的绝对吸引力与吸引力潜力进行了相关性分析。 分析结果显示，绝对吸引力与吸引力潜力相关系数为0.006，接近于0，表示上述两个指标之间没有相关性，也就是说并非绝对吸力高的城市，吸引力潜力会较低。,Special note ：Potential has no relation with Absolute Attractiveness,There may be such questions: is the high foreign investment growth rate in central region just a result of low investment base? And is the low potential of already attractive investment cities is the reflection of their sizeable investment base? To answer such questions, we have conducted Correlative Analyses between Absolute & Potential investment attraction of all monitored cities. The results indicate that the Correlation Coefficient between Absolute & Potential is 0.006, which is close to 0. Means No Correlation between these two indicators. In other words, cities with high Absolute Attraction may not have a low Potential Attraction.,开发区综合吸引力20强,在开发区吸引力前20强中:东部16个，中部2个，西部2个。 对比城市吸引力前20强，可以看出相对城市吸引力，中西部开发区的吸引力更强些。 我们认为这主要是由于：虽然一个城市投资环境的改变较难，但开发区投资环境的改变相对容易，因而在中西部地区的某一个局部地区，也出现对外资吸引力较强的开发区。,Top 20 Development Zones with the Most Comprehensive Attraction,Eastern 16, Central 2, Western 2. By comparison Top 20 Comprehensive Attraction Cities, we can see that there are more Development Zones in Central & Western Region. We deem that: although it is difficult for cities in Western region to change overall city investment climate overnight, they can promote to foreign investment by improving the Conditions of Development Zones.,开发区吸引力潜力20强中:东部12个，中部3个，西部5个。 与开发区综合吸引力20强相对比，我们可以看出跨国公司的投资开始向我国的中西部进行转移，这与城市吸引力监测得到的结果相一致。 与城市吸引力潜力20强相比，我们可以看出西部有更多的开发区进入了投资潜力20强的行列。 我们认为这与我们前面的判断相一致，西部城市虽然一时很难改变城市整体的投资环境，但可以通过改善开发区的环境来吸引外资。,开发区吸引力潜力20强,Top 20 Development Zones with the most Investment Potential, Eastern 12, Central 3, Western 5. By comparison with Top 20 Development Zones with the most Comprehensive Attraction, we can see that multinational corporations are shifting their investment to central and western regions. By comparison with Top 20 Cities with the most Investment Potential, we can see that there are more development zones of Western region in the list. We deem that this is consistent with our previous judgment: although it is difficult for cities in Western region to change overall city investment climate overnight, they can promote to foreign investment by improving the Conditions of Development Zones.,Top 20 Development Zones with the Most Investment Potential,Zhengzhou,影响跨国公司投资的最重要因素,调查结果显示跨国公司目前最关注的因素是政府行政效率。 我们认为这对希望通过改善自己的投资环境而吸引外资的城市来说是一个好消息，这表明政府改善当地投资环境方面有相当大的主动性，因为政府在很大程度是可以控制政府的行政效率。 这一调查结果也与我们对城市吸引力的监测结果相吻合，说明了处于同一区位的城市吸引力差异的重要原因，从而表明地理区位不是唯一决定是否对外资具有吸引力的因素，一个地区有很大的能动性来提升自己对外资的吸引力。,The Most Important Factors for Investment of Multinational Corporations,The survey results show that Government Efficiency is the No. 1 concern issue by Multinational Corporations. This also explain Why cities in the same region may Differ in Investment Attraction. What can be learned, location is not the Single Most Important Factor by Multinational Corporations. There is a Big Room of initiative for cities to enhance their attraction to foreign capital.,Survey of the Most Concerned Investment Factors,1) 目前对外资吸引力较强的城市仍旧主要分布在了我国的东部地区； 2) 目前中部城市已经表示出来了巨大的投资潜力，外资从东部向中部投资转移的趋势已经形成； 3) 目前我国西部地区可以通过提升开发区投资环境来吸引跨国公司的投资，本次监测表明西部一些开发区对外资吸引已经很强，进入了开发区综合吸引力20强。 4）目前跨国公司进行投资时最关心的因素是政府的行政效率。因而一个城市在改善投资环境方面有很大的主动性，可以通过规范政府行为来提升自己的吸引力。,监测结果,我们的监测结果结论如下：,Most of cities with Great Investment Attraction locate in Chinas Eastern Region; Cities in Central Region have shown Great Investment Potential, and foreign investment Transfer from Eastern region to Central region has become an established tendency; China Western Region may attract investment by Improving its Conditions. This monitoring suggests that there are certain Development Zones in Western region already with a strong attraction to foreign capital and may enter the top 20 investment attraction list; Multinational Corporations are most concerned with Government Efficiency. Thus a city has a great deal of initiative when it comes to improving investment environment. Cities may grow more competitive by enhancing their Government Administrative Efficiency.,Conclusions and Prospects,By our monitoring results, we have the following conclusions:,今年五月一日，中國温家宝总理 “兴奋得睡不着觉” 中国唐山发现 10.5亿吨的大油田 中国2006年12月的石油剩余经济可开发的储量为20.4亿吨，即新增50%储量,案例：一个城市,On 1st May 2007, China Premier Mr. Wen was “too excited to fall asleep”. A 1.05 billion tons oil field was identified in TangShan city. Till December 2006, oil reserve was 2.04 billion tons, a 50% increase.,Case Study: 1 city,唐山在那里？渤海湾,唐山市,天津市,北京市,Where is Tangshan? Bohai Sea,Tangshan,Tianjin,Beijing,油田在那里？曹妃甸,我们的监测结果结论如下：,曹妃甸,油田,水深36 30万吨码头,Where is the oil field? Cao feidian,我们的监测结果结论如下：,Cao feidian,Oil Field,36 m Depth, 300k tons Terminal,曹妃甸的,大煤碳, 大石油, 大钢铁,The “Huge” Cao feidian,Huge Coal, Huge Oil, Huge Steel,案例：钢铁产业,中国从2000年钢年产量突破1亿吨以后，到2006年底，在短短的几年时间，产量已达到4.2亿吨，平均每年增产5,000万吨。 目前中国钢产量已经增长到占世界产量的36.87%。 中国增长量占全球的74% ， 而其它国家仅占26%。,月,数据提供:,Case : steel industry,Chinas steel output from 2000 to 2006, just in a few years, from 100 to 420 million tons. The average annual increased 50 million tons. Now, Chinas steel production has risen to 36.87% of the worlds output. Chinas growth accounts 74% of the world and only 26% for other countries accounted.,1999-2007 Global Steel Output,ChinaCCM,10,000 T/month,Data Source:,Non-China,China,Global,钢材出口增长模式,中国钢材每年产量增加约5,000万吨 中国钢材每年出口增加约5,000万吨,月,数据提供:,Steel export growth model,Chinas annual steel production increased 50 million tons Chinas annual steel exports increased 50 million tons.,月,Data Source:,ChinaCCM,10,000 T/month,2006-2007 China Steel import, export & net,net,export,import,依靠价廉物美的出口，难以为继,自2007年6月1日起，我国对142项商品加征出口关税。 其中重点是对80多种钢铁产品进一步加征5-10%的出口关税。 这是继今年4月份对这些钢铁产品取消出口退税、针对产能过剩、出口增长过快的钢铁产品采取的进一步宏观调控措施。 钢铁企业不能再走依赖价廉物美的产品道路了。,Rely on low-cost exports , Shamble!,Since 1st June 2007, China has increased the export tariff of 142 items. Which focused on 80 steel items to further increased 5-10% Export Tariff. This is the follow-up “Macro-Control” in April 2007, to Abolish the steel items Export Tax Rebates, against over Production Capacity & Export Growth. Steel Enterprises cannot rely on “Cheap-Cheap” Product Strategy anymore.,唐山的大钢铁,建设45,500m3大高炉(中国第一世界第三)。 新增产能(2,500万