科普时间：中国消费者信心调研ccss

科普时间：中国消费者信心调研（CCSS）中国消费者信心调研（CCSS）是每月进行的、反映中国消费市场状况及消费者对家庭经济及宏观经济信心的独立第三方调研，是英德知联恒与美国密歇根大学社会研究所消费者信心调查课题组负责人 Richard Curtin 博士共同设计开发完成。整个方法体系与密歇根大学的消费者信心调查基本相同，同时又根据中国的具体国情进行了补充和完善，使之更贴近中国的实际情况。 该产品现已成为全球最大的德交- 泛欧- 纽交所集团旗下产品，其中的消费者信心指数成为预测中国未来经济走向的重要风向标之一。本次培训就是用这个数据作为主要案例来讲解。研究目标中国消费者信心指数的调查始于 2007 年 4 月，其基本目的是跟踪、监测并最终预测中国消费者对未来经济发展的期望及消费取向。调查每月进行，并提供总消费者信心指数，投资、房地产、汽车、耐用品消费等一系列分指数以详细刻画消费者信心的变化趋势。本调查被设计为测量消费者信心的变化趋势，而并非其信心的绝对值，即测量结果为“非常好、较好、不变、较差、非常差”。采用这种方式，本调查数据就可以及时为决策者提供识别市场转折点至关重要的消费者心态及未来消费趋势数据，从而提前进行应对。抽样覆盖范围基于对中国现状的深入理解，本研究只在中国较为发达的城市中进行。当然，中国的所有地区都值得进行调查，但在市场经济发达的地区，消费者的消费活动更为丰富，城市人口对整个国民经济的影响更大，显然企业及金融机构也更乐于了解此类城市消费者的相关调查数据。根据严格设置的筛选标准，目前共有 50 个中国大陆城市入选（港、澳、台地区并未纳入本研究范畴）。具体的入选城市列表将根据最新的统计数据每年调整一次。调查方法本调查的所有访谈均运用 CATI（计算机辅助电话调查系统）系统完成。在每次访谈时，受访者都被事先告知本调查的目的，并给予充分的调查指导。所有与个人隐私相关的信息均得到保密。每次访谈均基于一份标准化的问卷，其中的问题覆盖了市场的各个重要方面，如收支情况、宏观经济、物价/生活水平、投资信心、耐用消费品信心、房产消费信心、汽车消费信心等。每一个方面的问题又被细分为消费者对当前状况和未来一年状况的看法。问卷访谈默认采用普通话进行，但是在方言较为流行的广东、福建、上海等地，访问员将在必要的时候采用方言进行访谈，以充分保证受访者对问卷内容的理解和配合。调查周期除春节、五一、国情长假等特殊情况外，访谈在每月的前三周（大约每月的前20 天）进行，并在所有的地区同时开始、结束。样本的采集也尽量在整个访问期间均匀分配。由于调查中询问的是消费者对未来一年的看法，使用者必须意识到，消费者对未来的看法会同时受到过去和当前发生的事件的影响。因此，诸如奥运会、两岸关系、股市、政策变化等都可能会对消费者的感受产生显著的影响。一般而言，近期的事件会比远期的事件有更大的影响。抽样框 本研究致力于测量具有经济活力的中国家庭的看法。这些家庭关心中国经济发展情况，有足够的购买能力及支付能力。所有入选城市的城区家庭都属于潜在的访谈对象，我们将访问此类家庭中对当地经济活动有参与、有了解的一位成员，并对其居住年限、年龄等作了具体的限定，以确保受访者对当地的经济活动有充分的了解和介入。出于样本随机性和代表性的考虑，抽样时并未根据人口统计信息对样本进行配额。但是为了保证研究结果的连续性和可比性，在数据采集完毕后，我们将会根据官方公布的年龄、性别分布等人口统计信息进行数据的加权，最终得到的所有分析结果均已校正了这些变量的影响，可以相互进行直接比较。样本量 我们每月共访问约 1500 个家庭，并采用分层随机抽样的方法在入选城市中分配。基于对中国地区差异的了解，我们将全国划分为四个经济圈，即东部：北方地区、东部：华东地区、东部：南方地区和中西部地区，入选城市被归入上述四个区域，每个区域分配 300400 例样本，然后在各区域内按照简单随机抽样的方式抽取样本。根据计算，在当前的样本量分配情形下，按照 95%的置信度（Confidence Level），全国的抽样误差被控制在 3%以内，东部三大经济圈误差在 6%以内，中西部则为 6.2%。指数计算指数的计算基于所对应题目的汇总进行，每道题目首先计算其题目得分（QScore，也被称为信心值），该数值反映的是答案偏向乐观的人群和偏向悲观人群的比例之差（再加上 100），当人群中这两者的比例基本平衡时，得分接近于 100；如果乐观人群比例偏高，则得分大于 100；反之，则小于 100。在得到相应题目的得分之后，将用于指数计算的各题目得分直接相加，然后除以“基线 ”调查时的这一数值，即得到相应的指数值。因此，所计算出的指数代表的是当期数值相对于“基线”调查数值的变动比例。如果乐观人群的比例高于“基线”，则指数大于 100 (100%)，反之，则小于 100。目前作为基线水平的是2007 年 4 月的数值。总消费者信心指数的计算方法和密歇根大学的指数计算方法完全相同，也是基于下面五道问题的回答进行：当前家庭经济状况、一年后家庭经济状况、一年后宏观经济期望、五年后宏观经济期望，以及耐用品购买时机。除总指数外，本研究每月还提供耐用家电及家具消费信心指数、股票投资信心指数、房产消费信心指数和汽车消费信心指数。以上指数均可分地区提供，以帮助使用者更加深入地了解中国的地区差异。抽样方法、问卷、抽样误差的计算等各方面的详情请参见具体的技术文档。The Xinhua Finance eziData China Consumer Confidence Survey (CCCS) is conducted with the assistance and guidance of Dr. Richard Curtin, head of the Consumer Sentiment Research Group of the University of Michigan. We absorbed essence of the consumer sentiment survey methodology of the University of Michigan and made modifications according to the China situations.Objective of SurveyThe monthly survey of CCCI initiated in April, 2007. Its objective is to monitor, estimate and ultimately predict the expected economic and spending trend of Chinese consumers. Trends in consumer confidence are shown by overall index and sub-indexes of consumer confidence in investment, real estate, automobile and durable goods.The survey is designed to detect changes and not the absolute ratings in consumer confidence. The answers are five points: “much better“, “better“, “about the same“, “worse“ and “much worse“. The statistics of the survey enables decision makers to identify impending turning points as perceived by consumers and to prepare for the change.Survey CoverageBased on our understanding of Chinas characteristics, we decided to limit the survey to economically more developed cities in China. To be sure, all areas of China are of interest, but there are some areas of China that have already demonstrated a developed market economy with active participation by consumers across a wide range of consumer products. The city population has a much larger impact on the overall national economy and data on consumers in cities is highly desired by companies and financial institutions.50 Mainland cities in China were selected (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) according to the rigorously set criteria. The list of selected cities will be modified each year based on the latest statistics.Survey MethodologyCATI or Computer Aided Telephone Interviews are used in the survey. In all cases, the respondents are well informed of the purpose of the survey and given clear instructions. Their personal information is treated in confidence.A standardized questionnaire is used in all survey. The questions cover every important aspect of market such as income/expenditure status, business conditions, price/living standard, investment, durable goods, real estate and automobiles. Questions of every aspect are further divided into consumers opinions about the current economy and expected economy.The interview is conducted in Mandarin generally. But in some cities like cities of Guangdong, Fujian and Shanghai where people are more comfortable with local dialects, the interviewers will use local dialect whenever necessary to make sure the respondents understand and cooperate with the interview.Survey PeriodExcept for those months including long legal holiday (i.e., Spring Festival, May Day holiday and National Day holiday), sample collection is processed at the first 3 weeks of each month. The interview is started in all selected cities simultaneously, and is also expected to be finished in all cities at the same time. The sample collection process is required to be uniformity distributed in survey period.Furthermore, users should also be aware that consumers perceptions on future conditions are influenced by both the past and current events. Therefore, events like the Olympic Games, cross-straits relations, stock market and policy changes may significantly affect consumers perceptions. Generally, recent events have greater influence than past events.Sampling FrameThe survey is designed to gauge the perceptions of economically active households in China. These families are well concerned about chinas economic conditions and have enough purchasing power as well as financing ability. All urban households in selected cities are potential candidates for interviews. We will constrain the age and residence years of urban family members in selected cities to make sure the respondents have clear understanding of and active participation in local economy.To guarantee the randomness and representativeness of the survey, quota based on census information are not applied in our sampling. Nevertheless, after data collection, all cases will be weighted based on census statistics thus guaranteeing the continuity and comparability of the results without being influenced by these variables.Sample SizeWe interview about 1,500 families each month. The samples are allocated in selected cities using stratified random sampling method. Based on our understanding of differences between areas in China, we divided the whole country into 4 strata: “East China: North“, “East China: Central“, “East China: South“ and “Middle & West China“. In each stratum, 300400 samples will be allocated for simple random sampling.The sampling error of the whole nation is restricted within 3% at the 95% Confidence Level. The number is within 6% for the three economic circles of East China, and within 6.2% for Middle/West China.Index CalculationStarting with the distribution of responses to each index question, index calculation is based on the sum of the scores of all questions (QScore, also called sentiment value). The score shows the difference between the percentages of positive and negative answers (plus 100). If there is little difference, the score is almost 100. If the percentage of positive answers is larger than that of negative ones, the score is above 100. If the percentage of positive answers is smaller than that of negative ones, the score is below 100.Index calculation is simply to sum the question scores and divide this quantity by the “base“ survey, so that the final index represents a percentage change from the base survey. If the percentage of positive answers is larger than the base, the index is above 100 (100%). If the percentage of positive answers is smaller than the base, the index is below 100. The quantity of April 2007 is currently used as the base.Like the cal